Sam Farmer’s NFL picks for Week 11

The Times’ NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week’s matchups. Lines according to Pregame.com (O/U = over/under). Last week’s record 11-3 (.786); season 93-52-2 (.641). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 9-5 (.643); season 73-70-4 (.511). Atlanta, Denver, the New York Jets and San Diego have the week off.

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Pittsburgh (4-5) at Cleveland (0-10)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Steelers 24, Browns 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 705.

Line: Steelers by 8. O/U: 46.

The Steelers haven’t won in more than a month, and now defensive end Cam Heyward is done for the season. Still, the Steelers have enough to beat the Browns but it should be close.

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Baltimore (5-4) at Dallas (8-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Cowboys 23, Ravens 17

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 706.

Line: Cowboys by 7. O/U: 44 1/2.

The Ravens are 4-0 all time against the Cowboys, but they’ll have a hard time derailing the Dak Attack, especially on the road. Baltimore is building confidence, though.

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Jacksonville (2-7) at Detroit (5-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Lions 28, Jaguars 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 707.

Line: Lions by 6 1/2. O/U: 47 1/2.

Matthew Stafford and the Lions are efficient on offense and take care of the football. The Jaguars have been a bit more competitive lately, but they haven’t won since mid-October.

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Tennessee (5-5) at Indianapolis (4-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Colts 31, Titans 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 708.

Line: Colts by 3. O/U: 53.

The Colts have alternated wins and losses for weeks, and they’re coming off a win. They’re also coming off a bye, though, and have beaten the Titans 10 times in a row.

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Buffalo (4-5) at Cincinnati (3-5-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Bills 27, Bengals 24

TV: None. DirecTV: 709.

Line: Bengals by 2 1/2. O/U: 47 1/2.

The Bengals are beat up, coming off a short week, and haven’t won since beating winless Cleveland on Oct. 23. The Bills are rested and ready to halt their losing slide.

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Tampa Bay (4-5) at Kansas City (7-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Chiefs 27, Buccaneers 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 710.

Line: Chiefs by 7 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

The Chiefs are rolling again, winners of five in a row, and their defense will get after quarterback Jameis Winston. Watch for Kansas City to pull away in the second half.

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Arizona (4-4-1) at Minnesota (5-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Vikings 17, Cardinals 14

TV: None. DirecTV: 711.

Line: Vikings by 2 1/2. O/U: 40.

All those injuries, especially along the offensive line, have caught up with the Vikings. They can’t score anymore. Lucky for Minnesota, the Cardinals are sputtering too.

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Chicago (2-7) at N.Y. Giants (6-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Giants 24, Bears 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 712.

Line: Giants by 7 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

While the Bears have lost Alshon Jeffery and Kyle Long, the Giants are hitting their stride and look to be in that familiar mode of heating up in the second half of the season.

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Miami (5-4) at L.A. Rams (4-5)

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Dolphins 23, Rams 21

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 713.

Line: Dolphins by 1 1/2. O/U: 39 1/2.

In their four-game winning streak the Dolphins have scored 30, 28, 27 and 31. Jared Goff should give the Rams more offensive spark, but that’s a lot to ask of the rookie.

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New England (7-2) at San Francisco (1-8)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Patriots 31, 49ers 17

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 714.

Line: Patriots by 13. O/U: 51.

Tom Brady, who grew up a San Francisco fan, has never played the 49ers in the Bay Area. He makes the most of that odd milestone, and the Patriots handle their business.

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Philadelphia (5-4) at Seattle (6-2-1)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Seahawks 24, Eagles 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 715.

Line: Seahawks by 6. O/U: 42 1/2.

The Seahawks are starting to look like the Seahawks again, and that’s bad news for the rest of the league. The Eagles are coming off a big win but have lost four straight on the road.

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Green Bay (4-5) at Washington (5-3-1)

Sunday, 5:30 p.m.

Redskins 31, Packers 21

TV: Channel 4.

Line: Redskins by 3. O/U: 50.

The Packers are painfully short on playmakers and lack explosiveness. The Redskins are starting to get their act together on defense, and Kirk Cousins will help them pull away here.

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Houston (6-3) vs. Oakland (7-2)

Monday, 5:30 p.m.

Raiders 27, Texans 23

TV: ESPN (at Mexico City).

Line: Raiders by 6. O/U: 46.

The Raiders are the real deal. Guided by the poised Derek Carr at quarterback, they’re especially dangerous on the road. The Texans are 1-3 away from home, and about to be 1-4 in a Mexico City matchup.

sam.farmer@latimes.com

Twitter: @LATimesfarmer