Sam Farmer’s NFL picks for Week 9

The Times’ NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week’s matchups. Lines according to Pregame.com (O/U = over/under). Last week’s record 8-6 (.571); season 77-42 (.647). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 8-5-1 (.615); season 66-49-4 (.574). Arizona, Baltimore, Detroit, Houston, Kansas City and Seattle have the week off.

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Miami (3-4) at Buffalo (3-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Bills 24, Dolphins 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 705.

Line: Bills by 3. O/U: 44.

These teams should be evenly matched. The Bills are getting QB Tyrod Taylor back. This will be a coaching test for Miami’s Dan Campbell, who has to bring his team back from a bad loss.

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Tennessee (1-6) at New Orleans (4-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Saints 34, Titans 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 706.

Line: Saints by 7 1/2. O/U: 48.

These are two franchises heading in opposite directions. The Saints’ quarterback looks like the Drew Brees of old. The Titans just fired their coach and replaced him with the uninspiring Mike Mularkey.

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Jacksonville (2-5) at NY Jets (4-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Jets 27, Jaguars 21

TV: None. DirecTV: 707.

Line: Jets by 7. O/U: 42 1/2.

Regardless of who plays quarterback for the Jets – it appears to be Ryan Fitzpatrick — they should bounce back from two road losses. Jaguars are coming off road win and have been close in most games.

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Oakland (4-3) at Pittsburgh (4-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Raiders 28, Steelers 21

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 708.

Line: Steelers by 4 1/2. O/U: 47 1/2.

The Raiders often play well at Pittsburgh and they’re a run-pass threat. The Steelers have a beat-up quarterback, a secondary that’s shaky andan All-Pro running back sidelined for the season.

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Green Bay (6-1) at Carolina (7-0)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Packers 20, Panthers 17

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 709.

Line: Packers by 2¿1/2¿. O/U: 45 1/2.

The Packers aren’t a phenomenal team but are better than they looked at Denver. Carolina has a lot of momentum but could take a bit of a step back if Green Bay can neutralize Greg Olsen.

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St. Louis (4-3) at Minnesota (5-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Vikings 21, Rams 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 710.

Line: Vikings by 2. O/U: 39 1/2.

Both teams can run the ball well and have lousy passing games. This matchup showcases the Rams’ Todd Gurley and the Vikings’ Adrian Peterson. Slight edge goes to the home team.

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Washington (3-4) at New England (7-0)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Patriots 35, Redskins 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 711.

Line: Patriots by 14. O/U: 51 1/2.

Redskins haven’t won a road game and the Patriots have lost only four regular-season home games since 2010. New England is on a roll, and Bill Belichick doesn’t take his foot off the gas.

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Atlanta (6-2) at San Francisco (2-6)

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Falcons 27, 49ers 13

TV: None. DirecTV: 712.

Line: Falcons by 7. O/U: 44.

The 49ers are finally benching Colin Kaepernick for Blaine Gabbert and they’ve traded tight end Vernon Davis. Falcons aren’t as good as they looked earlier but are better than San Francisco.

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NY Giants (4-4) at Tampa Bay (3-4)

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Giants 24, Buccaneers 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 713.

Line: Giants by 2 1/2. O/U: 49.

Clearly the Giants have defensive issues, considering Drew Brees passed for seven touchdowns against them. They’re still more explosive than Tampa Bay, though, even though the Buccaneers have a pulse.

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Denver (7-0) at Indianapolis (3-5)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Broncos 42, Colts 20

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 714.

Line: Broncos by 5. O/U: 45.

As good as he looked in crunch time at Carolina, Andrew Luck is not himself. It appears he’s pressing, and that’s a problem against this smothering defense. Peyton Manning wins homecoming.

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Philadelphia (3-4) at Dallas (2-5)

Sunday, 5:30 p.m.

Eagles 27, Cowboys 24

TV: Channel 4

Line: Eagles by 2 1/2. O/U: 44.

The NFC East is terrible, and these teams are a grab bag on week-to-week productivity. Although the Cowboys won Round 1 and have Greg Hardy this time, they’ve got big issues at quarterback.

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Chicago (2-5) at San Diego (2-6)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Chargers 31, Bears 24

TV: ESPN.

Line: Chargers by 4. O/U: 49 1/2.

Despite his team’s record, Philip Rivers is having a phenomenal season, statistically speaking. He usually plays well in primetime games and should be able to punch holes in the Bears’ secondary.