Racing! Breeders’ Cup fields are thinning out

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we have another handicapping lesson from Rob Henie.

A lot of news concerning our local horses, so let’s right to it.

At long last, Hoppertunity is going to get a chance to be a stallion. The 7-year-old horse has been a long-time campaigner for Bob Baffert with quite a lot of success. He’s won $4.7 million in purses with nine wins, and all but his maiden victory were in graded stakes. He has only run 34 times.

He’ll be standing in Pennsylvania at Northview PA in Peach Bottom. He is said to be the richest horse to start his stud career in the mid-Atlantic region. His fee is $5,000 for a live foal.

Baffert is more known for his younger horses but this is one older horse that he loved having around.

At the Belmont, Baffert would always bring Hoppertunity out at the same time as Justify for morning works. Of course, there were lots of people, including plenty of media, all gathered at where the horses would enter the track. Baffert would joke that Hoppertunity always thought the attention was for him, not for Justify.

Baffert was always baffled by the fact that nobody wanted to stand him at stud.

“I don’t know what they are thinking,” Baffert would say. “What more does he have to do?”

In a press release, Baffert repeated the sentiment he has expressed many times.

“We are going to miss him. He was the barn favorite. Everyone loves Hopper.”

In other news:

--One of Baffert’s top fillies, Dream Tree, will miss the Breeders’ Cup Fillies and Mare Sprint after an epiglottic entrapment was discovered following her work on Friday. It can cause respiratory sounds and make a horse not exercise as well as they might.

“Timing is bad, but she will be fine in a couple weeks,” Baffert told Jeremy Balan of the Bloodhorse. You can read Jeremy’s full story, just click here.

She was undefeated in five lifetimes races, including a Grade 1 win in the Starlet at Los Alamitos last year.

--Its Gonna Hurt, who qualified by winning the Speakeasy Stakes at Santa Anita, is out of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint with a suspensory issue. He is trained locally by Brian Koriner.

“He’s got … a little flare in the suspensory,” Koriner told Balan of the Bloodhorse. “It was a gift [to qualify for the Breeders’ Cup]. Never thought he was that kind of horse, so we’re not going to cry about it. Jeremy’s full story can be found here.

Its Gonna Hurt had only run three races, winning her second maiden race and then the Speakeasy.

--And one more Southern California horse, Sharp Samurai will skip the Breeders’ Cup Mile, which is run on the turf. The Mark Glatt-trained horse has a throat infection.

There are still three local horses in that race: Catapult for John Sadler, Hunt for Phil D’Amato and Next Shares for Richard Baltas.

Weekly handicapping lesson

Here’s our weekly contribution from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). The thinking is if you can know and understand the strategies, it will make you a better handicapper. One of Rob’s many specialties is first timers, where the WCHR has had the last 16 of them.

Today’s lesson is from the seventh race at Santa Anita. Take it away, Rob.

“An optional claimer at seven furlongs, a distance which many handicappers believe is advantageous for runners from off the pace, after all, more ground, but the reality is, this distance rewards one-paced horses on or near the front end. The reason for this is, early splits are usually a bit more judicious going ⅞, unlike the ultra-quick splits seen in 5 ½ to even 6 ½ furlongs races. So, those who can run evenly near the front, with early splits such as :23, :47, they’ll usually offer a better response the final ⅛, making life a bit more difficult for the closing type, despite the added ground. With that in mind, top selection is CONQUEST FLATTERME (#6). Off the freshening, she raced to the inside of others, unable to sustain her effort off those :21.4 and :45.4 splits. Despite adding ground, the ability to race close up off slower splits, will allow for a better distribution of energy, likely staying on with more tenacity today, with apprentice Assael Espinoza taking over. ZUSHA (#4) is finding some good health right now, stringing three races together, spotted well over this distance, with Drayden Van Dyke likely positioning her close up throughout, while staying on just fine, fitting well from a class perspective as well.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: none

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 6-4

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): 3,5

“Positive Notes:

“2 Sheza Chattykat - This longer distance, as we discussed, could be useful for her.

“Negative Notes:

“3 Late N Left - Placement this year has been terrible, not allowing for confident efforts.

“TOP PICK: CONQUEST FLATTERME (#6 5-2 A Espinoza)

“SECOND CHOICE: ZUSHA (#4 4-1 Van Dyke)”

^{The West Coast Handicapping Report can be found at https://www.westcoasthorseracing.com It has been endorsed by leading trainers, handicappers and industry sources.}

Santa Anita review

The final race of the day, a 1 ¼-mile allowance on the turf, brought home a longshot in the $53,000 feature. Markie’s Water was able to fire past a strong Well Developed to win by a length.

Markie’s Water paid $18.20, $8.20 and $5.00 for trainer Richard Baltas and jockey Mario Gutierrez, who rode him for the first time. Well Developed was second and Accountability was third.

“I talked to Billy (Koch, with co-owner, Little Red Feather Racing) [Friday] morning and he told me to watch a couple of this horse’s races,” Gutierrez told Mike Willman of Santa Anita. “I’m glad I did, because I could see that he prefers to run outside of horses, especially turning for home and that’s what we did. We had a perfect trip.”

Santa Anita preview

It’s a big card at Santa Anita on Saturday with 11 races starting at noon. There are five turf races, including a 14-horse Grade 3 stakes race. Santa Anita has had a problem getting big fields in some of its stakes races, but not on this penultimate Saturday of the meeting.

The 10^th race is $100,000 Autumn Miss Stakes for 3-year-old fillies. The mile race goes at 4:40 p.m. Toinette, who has been running in heavy company, is the 9-5 favorite. She is three-for-five lifetime including a Grade 3 win in the Edgewood at Churchill Downs. Neil Drysdale is the trainer and Flavien Prat will get the ride.

Ms Bad Behavior is the 4-1 second choice. She is three of 11 lifetime and is coming off a second-place finish in the Unzip Me Stakes at Santa Anita. Baltas is the trainer and Rafael Bejarano is the jockey.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 7, 6, 5, 9, 10, 8, 8, 10, 11, 14, 11.

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

11:22 Belmont (4): $100,000 Awad Stakes, 2-year-olds, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Till Then (7-5)

1:35 Belmont (8): $100,000 English Channel Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Mo Diddley (2-1)

1:47 Woodbine (8): $100,000 Overskate Stakes, Ont-breds 3 and up, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Pink Lloyd (7-5)

2:08 Belmont (9): Grade 3 $200,000 Bold Ruler Stakes, 3 and up, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Coal Front (7-5)

2:30 Keeneland (9): Grade 2 $200,000 Hagyard Fayette Stakes, 3 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Prime Attraction (2-1)

4:40 Santa Anita (10): Grade 3 $100,000 Autumn Miss Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Toinette (9-5)

Bob Ike’s SA play of the day

EIGHTH RACE: No. 5 Impression (4-1)

Recent winner from the Billy Morey barn again catches a field without much zip and looks like an excellent wire-to-wire candidate. Although both wins have come at Los Alamitos (dirt only), this older gelding has run a number of competitive races on turf, including five in-the-money finishes here at Santa Anita.

Friday’s result: Magical Gray sat a great trip, got first run at the leader to make a clear lead turning for home, then didn't put up much fight in deep stretch to finish third in the opener.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here's a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Ed Burgart’s LA play of the day

SECOND RACE: No. 2 Stoneys Mr Cruiser (7-2)

In a field where five of the six runners like to win on the front end, this gelding has the versatility to sit behind the leaders if the situation arises which seems likely. He had an outside post draw and drifted wide into the lane of last neck loss and should get a great ground-saving trip from the number two slot in this six-horse field.

Final thought

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And now the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.

STRADELLA ROAD saved ground stalking the pace, went around a rival leaving the second turn, bid outside the leader in midstretch, gained the advantage nearing the sixteenth pole and won clear under urging. SHE BE STRIKING (GB) angled in on the first turn and chased inside, came out into the stretch and again in midstretch and finished willingly but could not catch the winner. MAGICAL GRAY close up stalking the pace off the rail, bid alongside the pacesetter to take the lead leaving the second turn, inched away, battled inside in midstretch and held third. DANCING BELLE chased outside a rival, came three wide into the stretch and was edged for the show. GATTAIA saved ground chasing the pace, came out a bit in the stretch, split rivals in deep stretch and put in a late bid at a minor award. RANCOR sped to the early lead, angled in and set the pace inside, dueled briefly along the rail leaving the second turn and weakened in the stretch. SMILE AWHILE broke a step slowly, settled outside a rival chasing the pace, came out into the stretch and lacked the needed rally.

OLD INDIAN TRICK stalked a bit off the rail, bid outside the pacesetter on the turn, was carried out some into the stretch, took the lead nearing midstretch, inched away under some urging in deep stretch and held on gamely. I AM THE DANGER chased outside a rival, came out leaving the turn and four wide into the stretch and finished willingly late. QUICK FINISH stalked the pace outside a rival then off the rail on the turn, also came out four wide into the stretch and also went on willingly between foes late. CAYATE sent inside to the early lead, set the pace along the rail, battled back on the turn, came a bit off the rail into the stretch, fought back inside foes in the drive and was outfinished. BUCK DUANE saved ground stalking the pace, drifted out a bit on the turn then was angled back to the rail and weakened along the inside in the drive.

TAKE A LEAP between foes early, stalked outside a rival, bid alongside the pacesetter on the second turn, took the lead while being fanned out a bit into the stretch, inched away and drifted in some in midstretch and held under urging. SUTRO saved ground off the pace, went up inside into the stretch, came out nearing midstretch and finished willingly to be second best. KAYDETRE three deep early, stalked a bit off the rail or outside a rival, angled in entering the stretch, came out in midstretch and went around the pacesetter late for the show. DEARBORN sped to the early lead and angled in, set the pace inside, fought back on the second turn, came out a bit into the stretch and lost third late. ARCTIC ROLL (GB) tugged between foes early, angled in and stalked inside, came out into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. JOURNAL ENTRY pulled along the inside and steadied early, saved ground stalking the pace, came out into the stretch and did not rally. WAZE READY three deep into the first turn, chased outside a rival then three wide leaving the backstretch and on the second turn, drifted four wide into the stretch and lacked the necessary response. SMART WIN pulled inside early, went between foes leaving the backstretch and on the second turn, dropped back in the stretch and weakened.

DISCATSONTHESQUARE stalked a bit off the rail then bid three deep on the turn and into the stretch, gained the advantage nearing midstretch and held on gamely under urging. CHRISTY JACKSON went up inside to duel for the lead, battled along the rail on the turn and into the stretch, fought back from the fence through the final furlong and also went on gamely to the end. SPECTACULAR MOVE saved ground stalking the pace, came out into the stretch and finished with interest. LI'L GRAZEN moved up between horses then dueled outside the runner-up, battled between rivals on the turn and in the stretch and was outkicked late. MAGICALCHIC chased outside a rival, dropped back a bit off the rail on the turn and weakened. BELLE MONTE stalked between horses and four wide into the turn, angled in some on the turn and also weakened. BOBBIE LINCOLN stalked four wide then five wide into the turn, dropped back off the rail on the turn and gave way.

LEAD STAR stalked outside a rival then a bit off the rail into and on the second turn, split horses past midstretch, bid between foes in deep stretch and gamely prevailed under urging. BABY FRANKIE angled in and dueled outside a rival, took the lead into the stretch, inched away in midstretch and held on gamely but was edged late. EASY KEEPER chased off the rail then outside a rival, went three deep into the second turn, continued outside the winner, bid three wide in deep stretch and continued willingly to the end. PALLADIUM chased outside a rival then between foes leaving the backstretch and alongside a foe on the second turn, came out in the stretch and found his best stride late. KEYSON dueled inside, fought back into the stretch and weakened in the final sixteenth. BIG IMPRESSION saved ground chasing the pace, came a bit off the rail in the stretch and weakened.

ACCLIMATE pulled hard and steadied early on the first turn and took back to stalk the pace, went between horses leaving the backstretch then outside a rival on the second turn, came out in the stretch, bid three deep in midstretch, gained the advantage approaching the sixteenth pole and inched away under urging. GRAY ADMIRAL bobbled some at the start, angled in and saved ground off the pace, came out on the second turn and four wide into the stretch and finished well. HOOVER TOWER settled and angled in a bit off the rail, went outside a rival on the second turn and three deep into the stretch and finished with interest for the show. PLATINUM EQUITY three deep early, stalked outside a rival then three wide leaving the backstretch, bid outside a foe on the second turn, drifted out into the stretch, battled between horses in midstretch and was outkicked late for third. JACK AND I tugged between horses early then angled in and dueled inside, stalked along the rail leaving the backstretch and on the second turn, came a bit off the rail in the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. EXTREME HEAT had speed three deep then dueled outside a rival, inched away a half mile out, battled inside on the second turn and into the stretch, fought back along the rail in midstretch and weakened late. CATCH FIRE chased three deep then outside a rival on the backstretch and off the rail on the second turn and did not rally. GRACIDA a step slow to begin, chased a bit off the rail, dropped back inside on the second turn, gave way and was eased in the stretch.

DIVINE DHARMA sped to the early lead, set the pace inside, kicked clear on the backstretch and drew off in the stretch under urging then a long hold late. CASSIE BELLE broke a bit slowly, angled in just off the rail then saved ground chasing the pace, came out into the stretch and edged a rival for the p.ace late. AMERICAN FALLS saved ground stalking the winner, came out into the stretch and was edged late for second. EASY PEASY steadied when bumped four wide between foes into the first turn, chased off the rail, came out into the stretch and improved position. BORUSSIA stalked between horses then outside a rival on the second turn, came three deep into the stretch and weakened. ALGORITHMNBLUES angled in and chased a bit off the rail then between foes, came out into the stretch and also weakened. MORNING PRESS five wide into thee first turn, stalked three deep, angled to the inside nearing the stretch and had little left for the drive. SHARP IMAGE three deep between foes into the first turn, chased outside a rival, came out four wide into the stretch and gave way. GREAT SALVATION in tight between horses early, drifted out five wide into the first turn then chased four wide, dropped back and angled in on the second turn, gave way and was eased in the stretch.

MARCKIE'S WATER stalked outside a rival, came three deep into the stretch, rallied under urging to the front in deep stretch and proved best. WELL DEVELOPED took the early lead and angled in, set the pace inside, fought back into and on the second turn and into the stretch, inched away a bit off the rail in midstretch and held on well but was caught late. ACCOUNTABILITY saved ground stalking the pace, continued along the rail in the stretch, waited in a bit tight while lacking room nearing and after the sixteenth pole, was in close behind the runner-up again in late stretch and held third. WHOOP WHOOP (NZ) stalked outside a rival then a bit off the rail, bid outside the runner-up leaving the backstretch and on the second turn and was edged for the show. MAESTRO DEARTE three deep on the hill, chased outside a rival then three wide a half mile out and alongside a foe on the second turn, came out into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. ANY QUESTIONS saved ground chasing the pace, went between foes leaving the backstretch, was shuffled back into the second turn and did not rally. OSCAR DOMINGUEZ (IRE) outside a rival early, angled in and saved ground off the pace, came out into the stretch and could not offer the necessary late kick.