Sam Farmer's NFL picks for Week 13

Sam Farmer's NFL picks for Week 13
All-Pro receiver Julio Jones (11) will be ready to go when the Falcons host the Packers in the NFC championship game on Sunday. (Ben Margot / Associated Press)

The Times’ NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week’s matchups. Lines according to (O/U = over/under). Last week’s record 11-5 (.688); season 116-59-2 (.663). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 9-6-1 (.600); season 91-81-5 (.529). Tennessee and Cleveland have the week off.



Kansas City (8-3) at Atlanta (7-4) 

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Falcons 27, Chiefs 23

TV: None. DirecTV: 705.

Line: Falcons by 4 1/2. O/U: 49.

Chiefs are coming off an emotional win. The Chiefs' defense is going to hold up, but their offense is going to have too many three-and-outs. Atlanta's offense is too potent for K.C. to keep pace.


Miami (7-4) at Baltimore (6-5) 

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Dolphins 23, Ravens 21

TV: None. DirecTV: 706.

Line: Ravens by 3. O/U: 40 1/2.

Miami has quietly won six in a row, and the Dolphins can control the clock with the run. Baltimore's defense is solid, and the Ravens are at home, but the edge goes to Miami.



Houston (6-5) at Green Bay (5-6) 

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Packers 24, Texans 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 707.

Line: Packers by 6 1/2. O/U: 45 1/2.

The Texans aren’t as good on the road. Even though the Packers can’t run it, and Houston’s defense is No. 5 against the pass, it’s hard to bet against Aaron

Rodgers in this one.


Denver (7-4) at Jacksonville (2-9) 

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Broncos 30, Jaguars 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 708.

Line: Broncos by 3 1/2. O/U: 39 1/2.

Just when he gets his mojo back, Trevor Siemian is dealing with a sprained foot. But Denver's defense is tuned up, and the team is ready to bounce back from its overtime loss to the Chiefs.


San Francisco (1-10) at Chicago (2-9) 

Sunday, 10 a.m.

49ers 21, Bears 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 709.

Line: Bears by 1. O/U: 43 1/2.

Matt Barkley made some nice throws Sunday — including what should have been the winning touchdown at the end of the game (dropped) — but bad as their record is, the 49ers are still playing hard.


Philadelphia (5-6) at Cincinnati (3-7-1) 

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Eagles 21, Bengals 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 710.

Line: Bengals 1 1/2. O/U: 42.

The Bengals struggle on offense without A.J. Green, and Philadelphia’s defense is pretty good. The Eagles are lacking weapons on offense, but Darren Sproles can make a difference.


L.A. Rams (4-7) at New England (9-2) 

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Patriots 31, Rams 14

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 711.

Line: Patriots by 13. O/U: 43 1/2.

Bill Belichick will have some defensive wrinkles dialed up for rookie quarterback Jared Goff. The Rams have been trying to get back on track defensively since the end of the Miami game.


Detroit (7-4) at New Orleans (5-6) 

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Lions 31, Saints 27

TV: None. DirecTV: 712.

Line: Saints by 6 1/2. O/U: 53 1/2.

This figures to be a shootout. Matt Stafford is making it happen for the Lions, who are a bit underrated on defense. The Saints have Drew Brees, but their defense is lousy.


Buffalo (6-5) at Oakland (9-2) 

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Raiders 30, Bills 24

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 713.

Line: Raiders by 3. O/U: 49.

As long as Derek Carr's finger is OK, he's got plenty of weapons in that Silver & Black arsenal. The Bills will be vulnerable defensively, and they have to come across the country.


Washington (6-4-1) at Arizona (4-6-1) 

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Redskins 31, Cardinals 27

TV: None. DirecTV: 714.

Line: Cardinals by 2 1/2. O/U: 49.

The Cardinals are getting Tyvon Branch back, and that will help their defense, but this team has not been able to get on track. Washington can put up some points.


N.Y. Giants (8-3) at Pittsburgh (6-5) 

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Giants 31, Steelers 23

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 715.

Line: Steelers by 6. O/U: 48.

Eli Manning has a robust cast of receivers, and the Giants have won six in a row. Pittsburgh’s defense is nothing special, and New York’s front four can get to Ben Roethlisberger.


Tampa Bay (6-5) at San Diego (5-6) 

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Buccaneers 27, Chargers 24

TV: None. DirecTV: 716.

Line: Chargers by 3 1/2. O/U: 47 1/2.

Jameis Winston is avoiding the turnovers that plagued him earlier in the season, and their front seven is getting to the quarterback. Mike Evans presents problems for the Chargers' defense.


Carolina (4-7) at Seattle (7-3-1) 

Sunday, 5:30 p.m.

Seahawks 21, Panthers 20

TV: Channel 4.

Line: Seahawks by 7. O/U: 44.

The Panthers are staying on the West Coast after playing in Oakland, and they showed heart against the Raiders. Still, the edge goes to Seahawks in a place where they're so tough.


Indianapolis (5-6) at N.Y. Jets (3-8) 

Monday, 5:30 p.m.

Colts 24, Jets 20


Line: Colts by 1 1/2. O/U: 481/2.

This hinges on Andrew Luck being able to play, or up to his standards, coming off a concussion. The Jets are playing tough defense, but Luck should be able to make a few more plays than Ryan Fitzpatrick.