NCAA tournament predictions: How the four regionals will play out

WEST REGION

Duke is headed back to Anaheim for the West semifinals and finals. Things will go better than they did in 2003, when Duke lost to Kansas off Katella (Avenue) and had to watch Kansas beat Arizona in a thriller to earn a Final Four spot. Best early-round game in the AL West has to be Texas over Oakland.

The first-round “upset” here will be No. 11 Missouri over No. 6 Cincinnati. Mick Cronin, the Bearcats’ coach, has been an advocate of losing since he said last week losing early in the Big East tournament was far more important than winning.

We have No. 4 Texas defeating No. 13 Oakland with a walk-off homer and then beating Arizona to earn a regional semifinal showdown with Duke.

NCAA interactive bracket

Sometimes you have a gut feeling about a team, and we have one about No. 2 San Diego State. The Aztecs (32-2) have defeated every team on their schedule at least once. And did you see the defense they played en route to the Mountain West Conference tournament title? Steve Fisher, in his 12th season after a checkered career at Michigan that can be rehashed in the “Fab Five” documentary, has a new team on the precipice of its first NCAA win.

Fisher is 20-9 in the tournament, having led Michigan to the 1989 title. The Aztecs hold opponents to 40% shooting. Kawhi Leonard is an NBA player, and point guard D.J. Gay has cat-like quickness and cat-burglar guts. If they shoot a lick from outside, the Aztecs are going places. Connecticut, an over-bloated No. 3, finished tied for ninth in the Big East before winning five straight to claim the tournament crown.

Regional final: We’re taking San Diego State over Duke, stretching credulity to its limit, although the Aztecs will have the home-state advantage.

SOUTHWEST REGION

If you like classic football matchups — Notre Dame vs. Florida State and Notre Dame vs. USC — this is your bracket.

USC will have to get past the Commonwealth of Virginia (VCU) in Dayton first, but we think the Trojans are a dangerous and motivated team after an emotional weekend at the Pac-10 tournament. Things went from the bleakness of Coach Kevin O’Neilll’s suspension to the joy of his reinstatement just hours before the team received a somewhat surprising NCAA entry gift. USC is not deep, but strong guard play and the post presence of Nikola Vucevic and Alex Stepheson make the Trojans formidable. This bracket should hold to form. Kansas sweeps past Boston University and then Nevada Las Vegas.

Our sleeper in the region is Richmond. We have the No. 12 Spiders upsetting Vanderbilt and then, gulp, Louisville, before losing to Kansas. Richmond makes 40% of its three-point shots and has a terrific point guard/frontcourt combination of Kevin Anderson and Justin Harper.

Notre Dame lost last year to Old Dominion, but this is a new Notre Dame. Ben Hansbrough, the Big East player of the year, will be looking to shake off his shaky performance in the conference tournament. The Irish beat Pittsburgh, Georgetown and Connecticut this season. We’re building here to a regional semifinal showdown against USC, which we have beating VCU, Georgetown and Purdue. Save your pithy retorts unless you were the genius who had Butler in last year’s title game. Unfortunately, just like in November, USC drops a late pass that could have led to the winning score against Notre Dame and the Irish push on.

Regional final: Kansas over Notre Dame.

SOUTHEAST REGION

This bracket has everything: great programs, coaches, the nation’s leading scorer and upsets waiting to happen.

Let’s go with UNC Asheville over Arkansas Little Rock in the Dayton game. The Bulldogs haven’t lost since Feb. 22, but they’ll lose again when they meet Pittsburgh on Thursday in Washington.

We are really wavering on top-seeded Pitt. The Panthers have a clear path to the Final Four. Is this finally the breakthrough year? We think so . . . yes . . . maybe. The Big East received 11 bids this year, but since 1999, only two Big East teams have advanced to the title game (Syracuse and Connecticut).

Let’s get radical right away and pick No. 12 Utah State over No. 5 Kansas State and No. 13 Belmont over No. 4 Wisconsin. We think Belmont (30-4) can win two and then really scare Pitt. The Bruins have won 12 straight and play up-tempo with hockey-like line changes.

We think Gonzaga has found its groove and will upset St. John’s. Brigham Young received a No. 3 seeding despite losing two games after starting forward Brandon Davies was dismissed. Jimmer Fredette, the nation’s leader scorer, had a 52-point game in the Mountain West tournament.

But only one team has won the national title with the nation’s leading scorer: Kansas, in 1952, with Clyde Lovellette. BYU is good enough to knock out Gonzaga in Round 3 and then avenge an early-season loss to UCLA.

We like the Bruins to come alive and beat underachiever Michigan State and overrated Florida. The regional final will match Big East brawn against the nation’s premier shot machine. BYU would have been the pick here if the Cougars still had Davies.

Regional final: Pitt over BYU.

EAST REGION

This overstuffed-couch regional features 18 teams vying for 16 spots and the best 1-2-3-4 seeding punch of Ohio State, North Carolina, Syracuse and Kentucky.

Two first-round Dayton games feed into this bracket. We like Texas San Antonio (19-13) over Alabama State (17-17) even though UTSA sounds like an airport security company. Don’t pack for a long trip . . . the winner here gets punched out by Ohio State.

Clemson beats Alabama Birmingham (why is UAB here again?) in the other Dayton game and then, dressed as a No. 12, loses to No. 5 West Virginia.

It took a restraining harness to keep us from picking No. 13 Princeton over No. 4 Kentucky because this feels so much like when No. 13 Princeton shocked No. 4 UCLA in 1996.

Ohio State survives a second-game scare from George Mason and then defeats Kentucky to make the regional final.

Down below, it’s No. 2 North Carolina all the way — although watch out for Washington after Lorenzo Romar’s Huskies dispatch Georgia. North Carolina is long and athletic and, most important, did not win the ACC tournament — the common denominator in title runs in 1993, 2005 and 2009.

Xavier, which knocked out Pittsburgh in the second round last year, takes out two Big East trees — Marquette and Syracuse — before being felled by UNC. Xavier has one of the region’s top point guards in Atlantic 10 player of the year Tu Holloway.

Ohio State versus North Carolina in Newark is a tossup, but the Tar Heels have a different look since freshman Kendall Marshall took over the point and freshman Harrison Barnes started to play up to his enormous potential.

Regional final: UNC over Ohio State.

chris.dufresne@latimes.com