Jobless filings drop again
A surprise drop in the number of new claims filed for jobless aid pointed to a healthy U.S. labor market, but a forward-looking measure of the economy showed that momentum had slowed, according to data released Thursday.
Initial filings for state unemployment insurance aid fell for the third straight week and to the lowest level in six weeks, dropping to 316,000 in the week that ended March 17 from an upwardly revised 320,000 for the prior week, according to the Labor Department.
Jobless claims are at a level economists see as consistent with steady employment growth.
“The data hints that March’s payroll numbers will be stronger than a weather-depressed February,” said David Sloan, an economist for market analysis firm 4CAST Ltd. in New York.
The U.S. economy added 97,000 jobs in February, the smallest gain in two years, with weather taking its toll. Construction employment fell 62,000, probably in part because of cold and stormy weather in much of the country.
In a separate report, the private Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators fell 0.5% in February after a 0.3% drop in January and 0.7% increase in December.
“Despite declines in both January and February, the cumulative change over the past six months remains positive,” Ken Goldstein, labor economist at the Conference Board, said in a statement.
“The housing and manufacturing sectors are clearing going through a correction, but the consumer sector appears to be holding up. That mix should generate moderate but choppy growth ahead,” Goldstein said.
In the weekly jobless report, there were no special factors behind the decline in new claims, which fell to their lowest level since the week that ended Feb. 3, said an analyst with the Labor Department.
“Claims will likely be volatile over the next few weeks as Easter approaches. The holiday falls eight days earlier this year than last, causing potentially significant problems for the seasonals,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics.
“Claims could easily drop sharply over the next couple of weeks before rebounding in early April,” he said.
Economists will have to wait until next month, when the government releases its monthly payrolls report for March, for a more conclusive picture of the job market.
Analysts on Wall Street had expected claims, which provide a rough guide to the pace of layoffs, to rise to 324,000 from the 318,000 initially reported for the March 10 week.
A four-week moving average of claims, which smooths weekly volatility to provide a better sense of underlying job market trends, also fell for the second straight week, dropping to 326,000 from 329,750 in the prior week.
The total number of unemployed still on the benefit rolls after drawing an initial week of aid fell 69,000 to 2.5 million in the week that ended March 10, the latest period for which figures are available.
