Africans pin high hopes on Obama

When Barack Obama visited South Africa as an Illinois senator in 2006, the reaction from the government was one big shrug. Only one Cabinet minister took the time to meet him. The local newspapers barely noticed.

What a difference a few years, and a historic presidential election, can make.

From Liberia to Nigeria to Kenya, many Africans are convinced that Obama’s victory this week is going to thrust them into the world’s spotlight. But will a president who inherits two wars and a deepening global recession really be able to usher in an era of hope for the world’s poorest continent?

Some think so: “There will be a tremendous change economically, socially and politically around the world,” said Buki Ponle, 52, a journalist based in Lagos, Nigeria. He says he followed the election “as if my life depended on it.”

Despite the grass-roots euphoria, especially in Kenya, where Obama’s father was born, others are wary.

“The election of a black man as president of the U.S. is not a solution to problems of the blacks all over the world,” said Nigerian Sen. Iyabo Obasanjo Bello, daughter of former President Olusegun Obasanjo. “We are putting too much hope and expectations on one man to save the black race.”

Some fear that Obama favors protectionist measures to rescue American jobs, and wonder whether Africa wouldn’t have been better off under John McCain, who opposes the U.S. farm subsidies that are so damaging to African agriculture and who favors fewer tariffs.

Patrick Smith, editor of the respected journal Africa Confidential, said Obama’s election had enormous implications for Africa because of his connection with the continent. He predicted a less paternalistic, more intelligent approach.

“That sets the tone for what’s going to be a lot more considered and effective approach,” Smith said.

Barney Mthombothi, editor of South Africa’s influential Financial Mail magazine, warned that Africans’ expectations were too high: They’d forgotten that Obama would pursue U.S. interests above all.

“Africa often tends to behave a bit like an unwanted orphan, who suddenly discovers a famous uncle, who’ll hopefully wipe away the tears and provide a protective arm. It doesn’t always work that way,” he wrote in a column.

Analyst Tom Wheeler said it was unlikely the United States would direct more aid to Africa.

“I think a lot of people are skeptical that it’s more than hype. I think the Bush administration has been pretty generous financially for Africa,” said Wheeler, who is with the South African Institute of International Affairs. “I don’t see that any new administration, at this moment, is going to be able to get Congress to provide a lot more aid for Africa.”

President Bush has provided a big aid boost to Africa, particularly for HIV/AIDS and malaria programs. It’s a legacy that will be difficult to live up to in a tough economic climate. When Bush came to power, aid was about $1.4 billion. The number is now $5 billion.

Obama’s team has already hinted that when searching for cuts, aid programs might be axed. Smith, of Africa Confidential, predicted that assistance would be reorganized.

“I think there will be more attention, but there will certainly be less money and perhaps it will be better targeted,” he said.

But if there’s one issue that Obama will be judged on in Africa, it’s international fair trade: whether he will usher in a breakthrough or, as some fear, stifle it. Will he continue to support subsidies that protect American farmers, but hurt poor Africans?

Smith said Western subsidies and tariffs are “ruinous” for Africa, condemning it to poverty. Aid programs “aren’t really aid packages at all; they’re just compensation for a very unfair trade system.”

But when Smith asked Obama’s foreign policy advisors about the issue at a recent meeting, they said it was not on the preelection agenda.

“I said, ‘You mean it’s too unpopular?’ ” Smith recalled. “They just laughed. They would not even talk about it.

“I think the moral argument is to get rid of these subsidies. But he’s going to have a hard job to dump subsidies in the middle of a recession.”

Apart from the palpable joy of many Africans at Obama’s victory, there was a longing. They were as much inspired by McCain’s graceful concession of defeat: In Africa, the losing side sometimes goes to war or refuses to give up power.

Standing in a long bank line in the Zimbabwean capital, Harare, where economic collapse has destroyed key government services, law student Gertrude Takawanda, 22, said the U.S. election showed African leaders they needed to be willing to lose. She pointedly mentioned President Robert Mugabe, who went ahead with a one-man presidential runoff after a widely disputed election this year.

“It is embarrassing for us that America voted yesterday, and their results are out, yet we are still haggling over elections we had in March,” she said. “Shame on Mugabe.”

Reuben Abati, an analyst in Lagos, said he thought hopes about Obama were too high.

“I don’t think because of his African connection we should be expecting any drastic change,” he said. “Africans who think they can now get free visas to the U.S. should forget it.”

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robyn.dixon@latimes.com

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Special correspondents Segun Adeyemi in Lagos, Godwin Mangudya in Harare and Ellis Togba in Monrovia, Liberia, contributed to this report.