China’s Testy Foreign Policy Wins Few Friends, Despite Need

China’s foreign policy as recently as last year was on a roll, earning kudos for helping to fight global terrorism and restrain North Korea’s nuclear ambitions.

But a look around the neighborhood now finds Beijing’s relations with Washington, Tokyo, Seoul, Pyongyang, Taipei, Singapore and Moscow taking a turn for the worse.

Although most of the frictions are manageable, they come as the Asian giant is increasingly dependent on the outside world for resources, capital and goodwill to fuel its economy and stem domestic instability. The problems raise questions about China’s new leadership, analysts say.

“China isn’t showing imagination. It’s stuck in old traditions in dealing with foreign relations,” said Zhu Feng, an international relations expert at Peking University. “That’s probably one of the leading reasons there’s been such turbulence.”

Sino-U.S. relations, although still relatively smooth, have been hurt in recent months by growing tension across the Taiwan Strait and Washington’s plan to sell advanced weapons worth up to $18 billion to Taipei. Beijing, which considers Taiwan a renegade province, charges that the U.S. tacitly supports the island’s independence.

China-Japan relations, always prickly, have been hurt by symbolic and substantive issues, including Chinese spectators’ ugly display of nationalism at a soccer game between the two nations’ teams in August. Adding to the tensions are Beijing’s recent threat to block any move to have Japan become a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council and ongoing differences over history, school textbooks and Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s visit to a shrine where Japanese war criminals are interred with other soldiers.

“There are a lot of problems now,” said Takashi Inoguchi, professor of international relations at Tokyo University. “Japanese direct investment to China has been on a steady increase. But the cost of investing is rising. Japanese companies need to satisfy more requirements, to show they’re politically friendly. It makes things very difficult.”

Cross-strait tensions, meanwhile, have deteriorated mainly because of the reelection in May of Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian, whom Beijing deeply distrusts. Relations with South Korea also have slumped after a dispute over an ancient kingdom. Chinese academics, with the apparent backing of Beijing, recently claimed that the Koguryo kingdom (37 BC to AD 668) had been part of China, drawing Seoul’s ire.

Six-party talks over North Korea’s nuclear program have foundered as well, undercutting Beijing’s role as host and increasing its frustration with Pyongyang.

On other fronts, tensions with Moscow have risen after the announcement by Russian firm Yukos that it would halt oil shipments to energy-hungry China. And Singapore recently had its knuckles rapped after Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong made a visit to Taiwan shortly before taking office.

“China clearly overreacted,” said Nan Li, a senior fellow at Singapore’s Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies. “Singapore’s been consistent in its policy toward Taiwan. There’s been a deliberate effort to blame everyone else for China’s own problems.”

Analysts cite several reasons for China’s more challenging foreign policy. Until late last month, President Hu Jintao wasn’t fully in charge under a divided leadership structure that allowed former President Jiang Zemin to retain control of a key military commission. This distracted the leadership, blurred lines of authority and undermined a nuanced approach to international ties, some argue.

Others say that after initial success negotiating entry to the World Trade Organization and raising its profile at the United Nations, China has run into barriers. They say it’s still hampered by ideological views -- particularly related to Taiwan and Japan -- and the assumption that the world should see things its way.

“Our policymaking process is still not as good as we’d like,” said Jin Linbo of the China Institute of International Studies in Beijing. “While some of this requires institutional reform, more of it is a weakness in thinking. We still don’t quite understand how the world works.”

Some analysts even question whether the new team of Hu and Premier Wen Jiabao is interested in international relations. Neither has spent substantial time abroad nor shown much initiative in foreign policy.

However, Yan Xuetong, a foreign policy expert with Tsinghua University, believes the international community is at fault.

“The problem is simple,” he said. “Many countries see our leadership transition as a time to squeeze us out of the international field. They understand that the government can’t take effective measures, and they try to take advantage of us.”

Now that Hu and Wen have a clearer mandate following Jiang’s decision to step down, many hope Beijing focuses more attention on the outside world.

“Domestic issues rank over foreign policy in most countries,” said Peking University’s Zhu. “The problem is that foreign policy is so closely linked with domestic policy. Things could become dangerous if China’s leadership doesn’t realize how important it is to deal with this. Beijing needs to be more proactive, creative and constructive.”