As Pakistan vote nears, all eyes on army

He’s invariably described as a soldier’s soldier, a highly professional and disciplined commander who is determined to keep himself and the formidable army he leads out of politics.

But Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, 55, who took over as army chief of staff less than three months ago when President Pervez Musharraf relinquished command, will need both luck and skill to steer clear of an increasingly turbulent political scene.

For decades, Pakistan’s army has shaped the country’s destiny. And though Kayani has moved quickly since taking command to distance it from affairs of state, analysts say that he and the military could find themselves unwilling participants in the drama expected to play out after Monday’s parliamentary elections.

This vote was once envisioned as marking a peaceful end to Pakistan’s transition to civilian rule more than eight years after Musharraf seized power in a military coup. Instead, the assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, Musharraf’s plunge in popularity over the last year and other factors have set the stage for what could be a period of intense turmoil.

Kayani, an infantry commander from a working-class background, may be forced to take sides -- to put down protests, or even ask Musharraf to step aside.

No one knows how Musharraf might react if his allies are dealt the crushing electoral defeat that polls are forecasting. Late last year, as Pakistan’s Supreme Court heard legal challenges to his rule, the president imposed de facto martial law for six weeks, deposing judges and cracking down on political opponents.

But if the Pakistan Muslim League-Q, aligned with Musharraf, does well and the opposition suspects large-scale vote-rigging, his foes have threatened to send supporters into the streets in protest.

Kayani, whose name has been spelled Kiani, could find himself being told to use his troops to keep order, although the army would probably be called in only if paramilitary forces were unable to subdue rioters.

Musharraf has explicitly warned opponents against trying to stage large-scale protests over the results. “No agitation, anarchy or chaos will be acceptable,” he said Thursday in a televised speech in which he promised that the balloting would be fair.

Another difficult prospect for Kayani would be if Musharraf’s opponents win control of the parliament and try to impeach the president. Political leaders and perhaps senior army officers could look to Kayani, a four-star general, to deliver the news to his onetime mentor that it would be best if he stepped aside.

“If anyone can steer a course through all this, it’s probably him,” said a Western military official in Islamabad, the capital, who has known Kayani for several years. “But his is certainly not a position that anyone would envy right now.”

Soon after taking over as chief of the army, Kayani made it clear that disentangling it from politics was a top priority.

Last month, he directed his senior officer corps to curtail contacts with politicians. He has also issued a directive to remove hundreds of ranking military officers from senior jobs in the civilian bureaucracy, a step that analysts say will go a long way toward reducing the army’s pervasive influence in policy matters, the economy and other aspects of public life.

“From the steps he’s taking, it’s clear at this point that he wants to put the army back on a constitutional path,” said military analyst Nasim Zehra, a Harvard fellow.

Kayani has declared that the army will have no role in the elections other than providing security. In previous polls, opposition leaders charged that military intelligence played a key role in vote-rigging and intimidation of government opponents.

Thousands of soldiers have been deployed across Pakistan in preparation for the vote. But they are under orders to stay away from polling places unless they are specifically called on to help deal with a threat.

Since Kayani took command, the army also has made some of its most forceful moves in years against Islamic militants in the tribal areas along the border with Afghanistan and other parts of northwest Pakistan. That momentum slowed in recent days after militant commander Baitullah Mahsud declared a cease-fire. In turn, the army appeared to scale back its operations.

Western officials have said the military lacks a coherent strategy against the militants, but the Bush administration appears confident that the U.S.-trained Kayani is willing and ready to retool his forces and refine his tactics as necessary.

Kayani has met in recent weeks with high-ranking American visitors, and there was no mistaking the respect accorded him, even as tough demands were being conveyed.

U.S. Navy Adm. Michael G. Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, began his main day of meetings here last week with a session with Kayani, not Musharraf.

Kayani’s relationship with Musharraf remains unclear.

In the military, the two men were considered close. Under Musharraf, Kayani held sensitive posts, including that of head of the powerful Inter-Services Intelligence agency, which at the time of his appointment had a history of ties to radical groups, including the Taliban. Kayani also was assigned to personally investigate a pair of assassination attempts against the Pakistani leader.

Musharraf issued a reminder before handing the baton to Kayani that as president, he remains commander in chief. He also insisted that he would continue to play an influential role in an army in which he served for four decades.

Musharraf, now officially retired, wears a business suit instead of his uniform, but he has yet to vacate his personal quarters and offices in the sprawling military cantonment at Rawalpindi, just outside Islamabad.

Kayani, though widely respected within the ranks, is something of an anomaly in the top military echelon. He comes from humble beginnings rather than the patrician background of most other senior officers. Tall and solemn-faced, he is a man of few words, which can cause some to initially underestimate him. But those who have served with him say he radiates a calm authority.

Although Kayani attended the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College at Ft. Leavenworth, Kan., he lacks the polished air of some of his peers. They speak easy British- or American-accented English in contrast to Kayani’s slightly labored speech, and are the sons and grandsons of senior officers, often with family wealth to fall back on.

Absent such advantages, Kayani is credited with rising through the ranks by dint of his abilities, first as an infantry commander and later as director general of military operations, a key command post he held during a tense border standoff with India.

The Pakistani military has traditionally been one of the country’s most respected institutions. But there is a growing sense that citizens feel less of a bond with soldiers, a development that has eroded morale in the ranks.

Several former officers said the estrangement springs partially from the notion that Pakistani soldiers are fighting a proxy war for the United States against the Taliban and Al Qaeda, a battle that is not necessarily regarded as being in Pakistan’s interest.

Musharraf’s long tenure as both president and military chief, and his suspension of the constitution last year, is also seen as having tarnished the army, they said.

As the country’s political crisis has deepened, Musharraf has been the target of frank public criticism from retired officers. A group of them urged him to resign in a sharply worded letter last month, and recent gatherings of ex-officers have turned into raucous anti-Musharraf forums.

Most analysts agree that Kayani could move against Musharraf, however reluctantly, if he believed that the president’s actions were damaging the army’s standing.

“I think Musharraf will have understood by now that Kayani will not bail him out,” said Shaukat Qadir, a retired brigadier general who is now a political analyst.

Kayani then could find himself in the position he had most hoped to avoid: that of catalyst for political change.

“In the end, his loyalty is to the institution of the military,” said analyst Zehra. “Not to any one man.”

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laura.king@latimes.com