Pakistan’s collision course

President Pervez Musharraf’s summary deportation Monday of a returning political rival is likely to galvanize Pakistan’s pro-democracy movement, but it also sharply heightens the danger that the country’s leader will use unrest as a pretext for declaring emergency rule or martial law, analysts said.

After spending less than four hours on the ground at Islamabad’s international airport, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was bundled aboard a plane for Saudi Arabia, where he had been sent into exile seven years ago after Musharraf, an army general, overthrew him in a coup.

Monday’s developments were the most dramatic so far in a months-long confrontation between pro-democracy activists and Musharraf. The general is considered a vital U.S. ally in the fight against the Taliban and Al Qaeda, despite misgivings on Washington’s part about the depth of his commitment to combating Islamic militancy.

Opposition parties and lawyers groups reacted swiftly, calling for a general strike today, which could degenerate into street clashes. Sharif’s party also said it would petition the Supreme Court to hold Musharraf in contempt of the panel’s order authorizing the former leader’s return.

Pakistanis were spellbound by the drama. In shops and restaurants, patrons clustered around televisions and radios, listening to nonstop coverage of the morning’s tense events. A police blockade of the main thoroughfare leading to Islamabad’s airport left thousands of commuters and travelers stranded by the roadside.

“They think this will make them look strong,” said student Munir Abbas, pointing with his chin toward a knot of policemen turning cars away from the approach to the airport in the early-morning light. “But to me, it looks as if they are afraid of something.”

The deportation puts Musharraf on a collision course with Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry, whom Musharraf tried to dismiss this year on misconduct charges. Suspicion that the Pakistani leader was attempting to purge the court of obstacles to another presidential term set off months of massive street protests and widespread calls for the general to step aside.

Now the chief justice is in position to preside over hearings on the deportation and on other cases that could affect whether Musharraf can persuade outgoing legislators to grant him another presidential term while he keeps his post as army chief of staff. Pakistan does not have direct presidential elections.

Human rights groups and officials from Sharif’s party said they feared that Sharif’s deportation, which followed the roundup of party leaders and supporters, could herald a wider crackdown on political opponents, the media and the judiciary.

“This deportation was clearly illegal, a kidnapping in broad daylight,” said Ali Dayan Hasan, a Pakistan-based researcher for Human Rights Watch. “Musharraf has always had a contempt for the rule of law, but this takes it to a new level.”

Party leaders arrested

At least half a dozen senior leaders of Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League were rounded up or placed under house arrest before dawn Monday, family members said.

“In a way we expected it, but it was still frightening, shocking,” said one family member, speaking on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisal against his arrested relative.

As many as 2,000 lower-level party activists were detained in the last few days, according to party officials. Police disputed that figure, alleging that several hundred “troublemakers” were arrested.

Sharif has emerged as an unlikely hero to the democratic cause: His two terms as prime minister in the 1990s were characterized by corruption and inefficiency. But he has managed to harness anger at Musharraf more effectively than has Benazir Bhutto, a former prime minister likewise attempting a comeback.

“Nawaz Sharif will clearly gain in credibility by this action of the government’s,” said Robert M. Hathaway, director of the Asia Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington.

Analysts said the rough treatment of Sharif was probably meant as a warning to Bhutto, whose party reiterated Monday that she would return to Pakistan, possibly in October, to contest parliamentary elections planned for later this year or in 2008. Like Sharif, Bhutto has corruption charges pending against her.

Sharif’s deportation puts Bhutto in a serious quandary. She has been in power-sharing talks for months with Musharraf, but such a heavy-handed action by the general makes an alliance with him politically unpalatable and unpopular. Even before the deportation, many in her own party had voiced unease over her forming an alliance with a man she has described as a dictator.

Hewing to caution, Bhutto’s party said in a statement that the legality of Sharif’s deportation was a matter for the courts to rule on, but called for the release of arrested party workers.

Similarly, the Bush administration avoided criticism of Musharraf’s action.

“It’s a matter for the Pakistanis to resolve,” State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said Monday, adding that the focus should be on holding free and fair parliamentary elections.

The European Union and Britain, however, expressed concern at the deportation and urged Pakistani authorities to adhere to the rule of law.

Like the nationwide protests over Chaudhry’s suspension, however, opposition to Sharif’s deportation could quickly take on a life of its own.

“Civil society and the legal fraternity are not going to just stand by and watch this happening,” said analyst Talat Masood, a former army general. “It will reenergize that previous movement. What we are seeing is Musharraf’s problems compounded and compounded again.”

With Sharif’s return on the horizon, Musharraf last month considered imposing emergency rule, which would have given him the power to postpone elections and suspend some civil liberties. A middle-of-the-night call from Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice apparently dissuaded him, but his aides said at the time that an emergency decree remained an option.

Some analysts believe that Musharraf, if faced with new unrest, might take the more drastic measure of imposing martial law, under which he would have sweeping authority to imprison opponents and otherwise muzzle dissent.

“I think this increases the likelihood of emergency rule or martial law. . . . It’s got to be seen as a real possibility, and a very unfortunate one,” analyst Hathaway said.

If that happens, said Masood, the former general, “it is really the unraveling of everything. . . . If it gets to the point where he can’t survive without martial law, he also can’t survive with it.”

Sharif’s airport arrival

Before Sharif’s plane from London touched down, the government had already telegraphed its willingness to deal harshly with him. It sealed off the airport from the non-traveling public, and riot police later fired tear gas at supporters who tried to breach the barricades. Cellphone calls from the airport and its vicinity were jammed, and sharpshooters lined the rooftops.

Shortly after he exited the aircraft, Sharif was served with an arrest warrant on corruption charges that had been revived in the last few days by the government. Then the ex-leader, who was clad in a black vest and the traditional white tunic and baggy pants, was forcibly hustled out of the terminal by police and onto a waiting bus that took him to another aircraft standing by to fly him to Saudi Arabia.

In Jidda, Saudi Arabia, Sharif was taken away in a police convoy with sirens wailing, the Associated Press reported.

Pakistan’s official news agency later carried an announcement saying that after being served with an arrest warrant on corruption charges, Sharif was “offered an opportunity to return to Saudi Arabia, in line with the terms of his agreement with the Saudi Arabian government.”

At the time of his exile, Sharif, who was facing corruption and treason charges that could have resulted in life imprisonment, promised to stay in Saudi Arabia for 10 years. When the case came before Pakistan’s Supreme Court, however, his lawyers said the pledge had been extracted from him under duress.

Sharif is unlikely to be able to return to Pakistan soon. A government official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Saudi authorities had agreed to confiscate his passport.

Sharif’s politician brother, Shahbaz, remained in London, where he will run the Pakistan Muslim League’s day-to-day affairs, party officials said. As he prepared to leave London on Sunday night, Nawaz Sharif had persuaded his brother to stay off the flight to Pakistan.

--

laura.king@latimes.com