Discontent Brews in Zanzibar

From a dimly lighted storefront along one of this ancient city’s winding stone passageways, Khalid Azan is planning for what he sees as a bright, religious future.

Zanzibar’s economy is foundering and complaints about government abuse are on the rise. The ruling party made a mockery of democratic reforms by stealing the last two elections, international observers say. On islands where Muslims make up 99% of the population, Italian tourists flout Islamic mores by roaming the streets in bikinis.

For Azan, the signs all point in one direction: an Islamic Republic of Zanzibar.

“Democracy in Zanzibar has failed,” said Azan, a founder of the Islamic Propagation Organization, a growing Islamist group that recently drew thousands to a rally. “Muslims are desperate. They are suffering. The only way for our society to move forward is through an Islamic state.”

Bucking Zanzibar’s history of religious tolerance and moderation, a small but vocal group of Muslim hard-liners is gaining clout in this tropical paradise, a semiautonomous archipelago that is part of the East African nation of Tanzania.

Muslim clerics who once shunned politics now pepper their Friday sermons with anti-government diatribes and criticism of the U.S. troop presence in Iraq and Israeli policies toward Palestinians.

Islamic fundamentalists have pushed for tougher prison sentences for gay sex and say their next goal is a ban on alcohol and a requirement that female tourists cover their heads in public.

Radicalized by years of perceived marginalization from the Tanzanian government, some younger Muslims in Zanzibar have returned from scholarships in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan with the view that religion is the only force that can rescue the island from what they see as moral decay.

“Young people are more devout than the previous generation,” said Othman Maalim, an Islamic studies teacher whose fiery sermons have angered some government officials. “They are coming back to the basic teachings of the Koran.”

The issue may come to a head today in local elections. Tanzania, formed in 1964 by the merger of Tanganyika and the islands of Zanzibar, was also scheduled to choose a president, but the voting was delayed until December after the death Wednesday of a senior opposition candidate.

The country’s ruling Revolutionary Party of Tanzania, which has won international praise for its democratic and economic policies, is considered a shoo-in on the mainland, where Muslims do not hold the majority.

But most predict the opposition Civic United Front has the edge on Zanzibar and Pemba, the semiautonomous territory’s two populated islands.

International observers say the opposition party probably would have won the 1995 and 2000 elections on Zanzibar’s islands were it not for government interference, a claim the ruling party denies. Allegations of ballot-tampering five years ago spurred bloody protests in which more than three dozen opposition supporters were killed in clashes with police.

Both sides were bracing for possible violence in the run-up to today’s elections. At least two people died and more than 100 were injured in the last several months in brawls involving opposition supporters, government police and gangs of young men allegedly backed by the government.

Zanzibar’s president, Amani Abeid Karume, whose father seized control of the islands in a 1964 coup, vowed recently to roll out heavy weapons to crack down on protesters. Karume has been importing security forces, weapons and vehicles from the mainland, where he draws much of his political support.

Opposition leaders are calling for supporters to stay close to polling stations today to prevent ballot-tampering. They threaten massive “Ukrainian-style” demonstrations should the government attempt to steal the vote.

“But we will not carry weapons, and we will not hit back,” said Civic United Front presidential candidate Seif Sharif Hamad, who was a member of the ruling party until his reformist tendencies landed him in prison nearly 20 years ago.

Islamists are watching largely from the sidelines, confident that turmoil will help their cause no matter what happens. Conservative religious groups, such as Islamic Propagation and Imams Assn. of Zanzibar, are prohibited from establishing their own political parties, so they’ve informally thrown their support behind the opposition.

The ruling party has used that perceived endorsement to paint the opposition party as an extremist Muslim group dominated by supporters of Arab sultans who dominated the island and oppressed Africans until the 1964 revolution.

“We believe there is a connection between CUF, the extremist groups and terrorists in general,” said Saleh Ferouz, deputy secretary-general of the ruling party.

Hamad dismissed such allegations and accused the ruling party of feeding the extremist tide through its refusal to relinquish power.

“People are losing faith in bringing about change through democratic means,” Hamad said. “CUF is a moderate party. But moderate leaders are losing control. Already I’m finding it very difficult to control these people. If this [election irregularity] happens again, I’m afraid I’ll lose control.”

Many doubt that a hard-line Islamist group could win broad support on Zanzibar, where 20 years of tourism and satellite TV have imbued the island with Western values.

“We all have the same blood,” said Hamsa Mohammed, a retired taxi driver. “Zanzibar is not just for Muslims.”

Nevertheless, Western officials are watching developments closely, eager to prevent extremists from gaining a foothold, as they have in other parts of the African coast. So far, Islamists in Zanzibar have focused largely on humanitarian issues, such as human rights and fighting corruption, rather than calling for violence or revolution.

“Their agenda is a militant one, but it’s socially militant,” said one Western diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, in compliance with government rules.

Still, with Zanzibar’s overwhelmingly Muslim population, deep poverty and the building resentment toward the government, the islands offer fertile ground to terrorists.

A small cell of Al Qaeda terrorists is believed to be operating near Mombasa, Kenya, to the north of Zanzibar. Suspects in the 1998 bombing of the U.S. Embassy in Dar es Salaam, the Tanzanian capital, had ties to Zanzibar.

This month, Jendayi E. Frazer, the new U.S. assistant secretary for African affairs, made Tanzania her first stop on an African tour, warning the government that an unfair election could hurt ties with the U.S.

The ruling party has responded to the potential threat by abolishing Islamic studies in mainland schools, closing charities that offer scholarships from Muslim countries and temporarily detaining leaders of the two main Islamist groups in Zanzibar.

On the streets of Zanzibar, voters are talking more about the economy and social services than religion. Almost everywhere, citizens complain about rising taxes and unemployment. Children in overcrowded schools must sit on the floor, and public hospitals run out of basic medicines. More than 60% of island residents earn less than $1 a day.

What tourists view as Zanzibar’s charm -- narrow dirt roads, peeling paint and crumbling old buildings -- locals see as proof of stagnation and neglect, particularly embarrassing for an island that was once a leading trade port.

Zanzibar residents complain that since the 1964 union, they have been getting the short end of the bargain, contributing billions of shillings in tourism, airport fees and hotel taxes but receiving little investment in return. Speculation about a possible oil find off Pemba has heightened calls for greater autonomy for Zanzibar, which recently adopted its own distinct national flag.

Islamists are encouraging the nationalist sentiments, calling for increased local control.

“People want a change,” said Khames Ali, a central committee member for the Islamic Propagation group. “Patience is running out.”