Mugabe opponent pulls out

Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai on Sunday pulled out of this week’s disputed presidential election in Zimbabwe, citing the rising political violence and the incumbent’s declared unwillingness to cede power no matter what the electoral results.

His decision left only President Robert Mugabe in the campaign, with the 84-year-old leader facing a parliament dominated by the opposition and little prospect of reversing the country’s catastrophic economic collapse.

The pullout, which still needed to be confirmed in writing under law, was greeted with relief by many grass-roots opposition activists who had borne the brunt of violence at the hands of the ruling ZANU-PF party’s militias. About 50 Tsvangirai supporters were hospitalized Sunday after they were attacked by young militiamen while attempting to hold a campaign rally. The gathering had to be canceled.

But one senior ruling party figure told The Times that the crackdown against the opposition may only intensify if there are protests in coming days.

Another official, government spokesman Bright Matonga, said in a phone interview that ZANU-PF would continue campaigning until the election commission announced that Tsvangirai had withdrawn and declared Mugabe the winner.

Mugabe, who has ruled Zimbabwe since independence in 1980, has taken an increasingly autocratic stance in recent years. He has drawn international condemnation by closing down media, denying food to opposition supporters and unleashing violence on opponents. The economy, in severe decline since controversial land reforms in 2000 saw white-owned farms seized and turned over to ruling party supporters, has crashed catastrophically.

This year’s election was seen as Tsvangirai’s best hope for unseating Mugabe before the president could pass on control to a handpicked successor, possibly next year.

Mugabe was quoted last week by state media as warning that he would not surrender power to his opponents. “We shed a lot of blood for this country. We are not going to give up our country for a mere X on a ballot,” the Herald quoted Mugabe as saying.

However, Tsvangirai’s move Sunday undercut what many analysts had argued was Mugabe’s strategy: to seize victory in Friday’s runoff election and to use it as leverage to dominate a unity government with only a nominal role for the opposition. The maneuver could have led to what some had labeled a “ZANU-PF lite” government, helping Mugabe overcome criticism in the region and regain an air of legitimacy while maintaining control.

Mugabe’s party lost its parliamentary majority for the first time in the March 29 elections, and Tsvangirai outpolled him in the presidential vote. Tsvangirai said he won the balloting with more than 50% of the vote, enough to avoid a runoff. However, official results gave him about 48% and Mugabe about 43%.

One senior ZANU-PF figure, who spoke on condition of anonymity, confirmed that with the ruling party almost certain of victory in Friday’s runoff vote, Mugabe had planned to open negotiations on a government of national unity.

After Tsvangirai’s pullout, Mugabe will probably be declared the default winner -- but without the legitimacy that victory in a contested election would have brought.

“Now, with him pulling out, who would offer a government of national unity?” the senior official said.

Nonetheless, he acknowledged that the mood in the ruling party was far from jubilant.

“It’s a shock for the whole party,” he said. “We thought that Tsvangirai would be mature enough to allow the process to go through. Why is he running away? It’s only designed to cause unnecessary despondency and alarm in the community and to make the world think his life is under threat.”

Tsvangirai’s pullout could make it even more difficult for Mugabe’s government to attract economic support and foreign investment.

“It looks like a classic standoff, and we are just going to drag on,” said economist Tony Hawkins, adding that it was plain the opposition would not accept a unity government on ZANU-PF’s terms.

“I think the real pressure on Mugabe will come from the economy,” he said. “The economy is going to take Mugabe out. We have seen a very radical deterioration. Inflation is in the millions of percent. Nobody knows whether it’s 1 million or 2 million or 10 million. Nobody is counting it anymore. It’s hard to see it lasting very much longer. We are probably talking about months, not years.”

Human rights groups and doctors said recently that at least 85 supporters of Tsvangirai’s Movement for Democratic Change have been killed since March 29 and more than 3,000 injured.

Tsvangirai said Sunday that 200,000 people had been forced from their homes, 20,000 homes had been destroyed and 10,000 people had been injured by militiamen seeking to intimidate voters.

The MDC leader said there was near unanimity in the party’s executive council on pulling out.

“Zimbabweans . . . have withstood years of brutality, impoverishment and intimidation,” Tsvangirai said. “But we in the MDC cannot ask them to cast their votes on June 27 when that vote could cost them their lives.”

He said the MDC would continue its struggles against ZANU-PF. “Victory is certain, it can only be delayed,” he said.

The senior ZANU-PF figure foreshadowed a possible army crackdown in coming days, predicting a likely opposition uprising.

“If his members are going to take to the streets, some sort of force will have to be used to contain it,” he said, adding that police could not cope with widespread protests. “Then the army will have to contain the situation. That will call for the whole security forces to contain the situation. No government will sit down and see citizens massacred.”

Tsvangirai said he would spell out future plans Wednesday and left the door open to contest a runoff if violence was stopped and electoral fraud prevented.

The Bush administration sharply criticized the Mugabe government Sunday after Tsvangirai’s decision, and said it might seek United Nations action this week.

“The senseless acts of violence against the opposition as well as election monitors must stop,” White House spokesman Carlton Carroll said in a statement.

“Mugabe cannot be allowed to repress the Zimbabwean people forever.”

Some MDC activists, however, expressed bittersweet relief after Tsvangirai’s announcement Sunday.

Among them was Barnabas Ndira, whose brother Tonderai had been beaten to death and dumped in the bush several weeks ago.

“I think it [pulling out of the vote] was the right thing to do,” Ndira said. “We couldn’t do anything. People were being killed. Even wearing a [party] T-shirt was very bad.”

Earlier Sunday, Tsvangirai was prevented from addressing a noon rally in Harare, the capital, when the site was surrounded by hundreds of armed youths from the ruling party.

MDC organizer Willis Madzimure said in an interview that about 400 opposition activists had tried to march to the rally but were heavily outnumbered by ZANU-PF supporters armed with clubs, iron bars and heavy sticks. The activists were surrounded and forced to flee, but dozens were beaten.

“I saw the ZANU-PF people running and shouting, ‘Kill the MDC people!’ What I saw today I never believed would happen in an election in a civilized country. It was the last straw,” Madzimure said.