A leader for Lebanon

The bewildering crisis in Lebanon has taken another perplexing twist with reports that the gridlocked parliament has agreed to choose the country’s top general, Michel Suleiman, as its next president. The question is whether Suleiman represents a genuine compromise among Lebanon’s intractable factions or whether his ascension would signal a betrayal of the 2005 “Cedar Revolution,” which ended in the promise to kick Syria out of Lebanese politics and give real democracy a chance.

The presidential selection process has been anything but free or fair. Under Lebanon’s tortured constitution, parliament chooses the president. But the power balance in parliament isn’t based on election results; rather, it tracks the tally of assassinations. After four anti-Syrian lawmakers were murdered, their colleagues have been holed up since September in the Phoenicia Hotel in Beirut, trying to hang on to their slim parliamentary majority by the simple expedient of staying alive. President Emile Lahoud’s term expired last week, and Lahoud left office with no successor in sight. The vote to replace him has been delayed six times and is now scheduled for Dec. 6.

The United States and France have supported the pro-democracy movement that drew more than a million people into the streets in the Cedar Revolution that succeeded in driving Syria from Lebanon in 2005. But the West has not done enough since then to keep Syria or Hezbollah from paralyzing political progress. Hezbollah’s punishing war with Israel, its rapid rearmament and its successful intimidation of parliament have proceeded apace, while the United Nations tribunal charged with investigating the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri has dragged. Now Beirut’s beleaguered moderates fear that the West is once again willing to turn a blind eye to Syrian meddling in Lebanon if Damascus will participate in Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations. Peace in the Golan Heights would be a prize, but giving radical Islamists veto power over the Lebanese government would be a tragic price to pay in return.

Enter Suleiman, who is no white knight but who might be able to keep Lebanon from a new civil war. Originally handpicked by the Syrians, Suleiman refused to use the army to crush pro-democracy demonstrators. He became a national hero for routing a radical faction that had seized control of a Palestinian refugee camp. Yet he enjoys close ties to Hezbollah and, as army chief, has allowed the smuggling of weapons from Syria to the Islamist fighters. In truth, a leader opposed by Hezbollah cannot control Lebanon today or prevent renewed civil strife, and the West will probably recognize Suleiman. But it should not allow Lebanon to again become ground zero in a proxy war sponsored by Syria and Iran.