Israel Fears an Alliance of Two Enemies

If there is a single recent development that has Israel more rattled than the Islamist group Hamas’ ascent to power in last month’s Palestinian elections, it is the seemingly tightening bonds of friendship between Hamas and Iran.

A visit to the Islamic Republic last week by Hamas’ exiled senior political leader, Khaled Meshaal, set off alarm bells in the Jewish state, generating banner headlines and drawing heated rhetoric from Israeli policymakers.

But a contrarian view has emerged from Israeli intelligence officials, analysts and Western diplomats: that this much-trumpeted relationship between Iran and Hamas may prove to be of exaggerated import.

They cite Hamas’ traditional determination to ward off outside influence and adhere to its own nationalist agenda; fundamental mistrust between Iran’s Shiite leaders and Hamas’ Sunni ones; and the militant group’s desire to nurture ties with moderate Arab governments such as Jordan and Egypt as it moves to assume power.

Meshaal’s visit was marked in Israel by front-page photos of a convivial handshake between the Hamas official and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who has called for wiping Israel off the map.

Senior Israeli officials portrayed this nascent alliance of Iran, its bitterest foe, and Hamas, which is sworn to the Jewish state’s destruction, as a grave new menace.

“The aim of Israel’s policy should be to prevent Hamas from establishing a government under Iranian influence only a stone’s throw from Jerusalem and Tel Aviv,” declared Yuval Steinitz, chairman of the Knesset’s influential foreign affairs and defense committee.

Some other observers, however, saw far less cause for concern.

In terms of the show of friendship with Hamas, “Iran is a scarecrow,” Amos Gilboa, a former senior Israeli military intelligence official, wrote last week in the Maariv newspaper.

The high-profile talks with Hamas, said one Western diplomat, “are a way for the Iranians to jangle everyone’s nerves” at a time of escalating tensions over the Islamic Republic’s nuclear ambitions.

“It’s saber-rattling, but of a kind that really costs Tehran absolutely nothing -- this can be portrayed as merely a friendly meeting with a representative of an incoming regional government,” said the diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

During Meshaal’s visit, officials in Tehran were quoted as expressing willingness to help Hamas withstand the “cruel” blow of reduced U.S. and other Western aid to the Palestinian Authority, though no specific contribution was pledged.

Hamas will indeed be strapped for cash if the United States and European nations carry through with threats to cut the flow of all but humanitarian aid to the Palestinians once a government dominated by the militant group is in place. Nearly half the Palestinian Authority’s budget comes from foreign assistance.

Iran’s financial aid to Hamas has been relatively minor, largely in the form of arms funneled through Syria and cash earmarked for terrorist attacks, according to Israeli intelligence. Hamas halted its campaign of suicide bombings inside Israel more than a year ago, when it entered Palestinian politics at the local level, winning control of key municipalities as it prepared for general elections.

Far more significant is Iran’s support for Hezbollah, the Lebanon-based Shiite militia, and even for the Palestinian militant group Islamic Jihad, which carried out all of the half-dozen suicide bombings in Israel last year.

“I don’t really see Iran stepping forward and filling the gap for Hamas as far as money is concerned,” said Shaul Mishal, a Tel Aviv University professor who has long studied the Islamist group. “And whatever assistance is provided will certainly have many strings attached -- perhaps too many to make it worthwhile, for the amounts of money we would be talking about.”

Although Hamas and Iran have a relationship that stretches back to the early 1990s, the Palestinian group has shown a strong aversion to being overly beholden to the Shiite regime.

“First and foremost, Hamas is a nationalist organization -- it is Palestinian before being radical Islamist,” said Anat Kurtz, a scholar of Hamas from the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies. “Too close an affiliation with Iran could undermine its goal of establishing itself as the leading actor in the Palestinian political scene.”

Unlike Fatah, the long-ruling party it unseated, Hamas is loath to put its internal differences on display. Still, it is clear that different wings of the movement -- its exiled leaders and its domestic ones, its military arm and its political echelon -- have differing views on how close a relationship with Iran the group should cultivate.

The Damascus-based Meshaal, who made the visit to Tehran, is considered to be much more of a hard-liner than Ismail Haniya, the group’s Gaza leader who has been tapped to be prime minister.

Although Hamas leaders of all stripes have responded defiantly to U.S. and Israeli warnings of a funding cutoff by pointing to potential donors such as Iran, there is acknowledgment within the movement’s ranks that tilting too obviously toward Iran could alienate important allies in the Arab world.

“Hamas must look to others for support, but I believe it will not go too far in the matter of relations with Iran,” said Ghazi Hamad, a newly elected member of the Palestinian parliament who edits a pro-Hamas newspaper.

Hamas is trying hard to entice Fatah into a coalition Cabinet, which would relieve it of the burden of governing alone and would greatly enhance the likelihood of the Palestinian Authority maintaining ties with Israel and the United States.

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has insisted that any new government refrain from entanglements with radical outside regimes. Without mentioning Iran by name, Abbas told the Palestinian parliament at its inaugural session, “We are not going to enter into any kind of axis.”

At a time when Hamas is trying to calm fears that it will seek to stamp strictly Islamic social customs on a largely secular Palestinian society, a too-close relationship with Iran could be a domestic political liability.

“Hamas is a most sensitive seismograph for the Palestinian public -- it has come this far by being precisely aware of what the people want,” said Reuven Paz, who directs studies of Islamist movements at the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya, a prominent Israeli think tank.

“Hamas’ main target at the moment is to create stability at home and to seek international legitimacy,” Paz said. “With those goals, I think we will witness more pragmatism on the part of Hamas, not an attempt to emphasize radical ideology like that exemplified by Iran.”

Some expressed the belief that Iran would have much more to gain from an alliance than would Hamas.

The Islamist group “has made it very, very clear that they do not regard the Iranian model as appropriate for them,” said Meir Litvak, an Israeli analyst who studies the relationship of Islamic radicalism and Palestinian nationalism. “Hamas might like some kind of beneficial partnership, but subordination to Iran -- never.”