We Don’t Want to Bury You

Washington’s China policy has been under debate since the end of the Cold War. In the early 1990s, the “China collapse theory” argued that the nation of 1.3 billion was “on the verge of political disturbance, territorial disintegration and democratic revolution.” Many thought that if the Soviet Union, after 74 years of socialism, could collapse quickly, China could follow suit.

But this did not happen. To the contrary, the Chinese economy began to develop momentum, bringing with it unconscious fear in the United States. The “threat” debate peaked about 1997 and nearly died after 9/11. But recently, some sectors in the U.S. are raising the subject again. It seems unnecessary.

In 25 years of Chinese reform and openness, the world has transformed. The bipolar existence of the Cold War has given way to a world with one superpower, along with various strong but lesser powers. The international community did not give much weight to China’s role in this changing world -- and China, for the near term, would not quarrel with that view. China has known for a quarter of a century that it must first integrate with the world community.

Toward that end, it has become a major player in international trade. Since joining the World Trade Organization three years ago, China’s foreign trade has more than doubled. About 60% of China’s exports are produced by companies operating with foreign capital or in joint ventures, which means U.S. and other foreign companies are making huge sums of money in China. Clearly, both China and the U.S. can prosper under globalization.

China’s relationship with its neighbors, especially in Southeast Asia, has improved as Chinese leaders have advocated a security policy of “mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality and cooperation.” Those neighbors have begun to see China’s rise as an opportunity rather than a threat.

As China’s influence grows in the region, some American scholars wonder if its interests will clash with those of the United States -- a view widely held in the late 1990s. This is not inevitable. The United States is a Pacific power with historical interests in the region. China wants the United States to play a stabilizing and positive role there. China has promoted economic integration, through free trade and other mechanisms. The United States may want to consider how it can become more proactive in shaping, with China, the future of the Asia-Pacific region.

China’s double-digit increases in its defense budget also causes much anxiety in the United States. But the fact is that China’s defense spending is still very low compared with many countries. China’s military power is often exaggerated. It has no aircraft carriers or blue-water fleets and has little ability to project its military beyond the region. And unlike the former Soviet Union, China’s road has been one of peaceful development -- contributing to regional and world stability.

China is in competition with other countries, including the United States, for natural resources to power its economy, and products made in China are competing in markets around the world. As Americans surely know, peaceful competition is not a bad thing. It is a healthy thing that increases efficiency and accelerates technological progress. Countries can develop hand in hand with peaceful competition.

During Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s recent trip to Asia, she said the United States sought China as a global partner. That is as it should be for nations that occupy two of the five seats on the United Nations Security Council. China and the United States can continue to coexist, and any strategic showdown between them is avoidable.