South Korea’s Big If

Even though this week’s National Assembly elections in South Korea were held under conditions of less than full political freedom, the results have turned out to be less than pleasing to President Chun Doo Hwan’s authoritarian regime. After what seems to have been a reasonably honest vote count, Chun’s party has expectedly retained its parliamentary majority, but now it faces a formidable new main opposition group that promises to remain outspokenly critical of Chun and his policies. The question is whether and to what extent this energized opposition will in fact be allowed to oppose.

The answer could depend in good part on how the New Korea Democratic Party comports itself from here on. Certainly there is much for the opposition in South Korea to protest and try to change, beginning with the still considerable restrictions on political liberties that remain in force. But Korea is an essentially conservative society where a high value is placed on order, propriety and respect for traditions. More than once in the last quarter-century what was seen as an excess of political fervor has prompted crackdowns that were by no means lacking in popular support. This is a risk that must be kept in mind.

South Korea will be a focus of world attention in coming years as Seoul plays host to the Asian Games in 1986 and to the Summer Olympic Games in 1988. Above all else, Chun wants to be able to present his country as peaceful, content and stable. He can try to achieve stability through repression, in the manner of strongmen everywhere. Or he can try to do so by liberalizing his policies, allowing much broader freedoms and seeking a new national consensus. If--and it is a big if--that is Chun’s preferred choice, then the best initial step that he can take would be to free Kim Dae Jung, the chief symbol of political opposition, from house arrest.