Uncertainty in Sudan

The situation in Sudan remains uncertain, with no more likelihood that the overwhelming problems will be better handled now than before the military deposed Jaafar Numeiri.

Abdul-Rahman Suwar Dahab, the new strongman, is judged a moderate by Western standards, apparently eager to maintain close ties with Washington. He shares Numeiri’s commitment to an alliance with Egypt, to the support of the Camp David process that brought peace between Egypt and Israel, and to the isolation of Moammar Kadafi of Libya.

The crucial question is whether he will be able to do a better job of addressing the domestic problems that were the downfall of his predecessor.

Sudan is effectively bankrupt, despite the fact that it has received more aid than any other African nation south of the Sahara. A significant amount of the disorder that contributed to the overthrow of Numeiri was the result of economic reforms demanded by the international community to start the painful process of recovery. These reforms remain as urgently needed and as unpalatable to the population as before the coup.

There are some moderating notes, however. Numeiri himself had begun to ease the imposition of sharia, the Islamic code of justice that has been opposed by many in the Muslim-majority north and that led to a violent revival of rebellion in the south, where Muslims are a minority. And the leader of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army had signaled, before the coup, the possibility of a truce in the rebellion and negotiation of a settlement that would clear the way for development of urgently needed petroleum resources. Furthermore, Dahab has promised civilian rule--a central demand of the unions.

The military appears to have acted to preempt a coup by more radical groups. Its success will depend on the speed and judiciousness with which the officers now act to end rebellion, maintain order, revive the economy and install civilian rule--all of the enormous tasks at which Numeiri failed.