Lebanon: Bad to Worse

Israel keeps searching for allies in Lebanon, but all it finds are liabilities. First it entered into an ultimately humiliating association with the Christian Falangists, the political and military arm of the Maronite community. Then it persuaded itself that the band of mercenaries known as the South Lebanon Army could help it achieve border security. The SLA, whose loyalties and military effectiveness alike are highly questionable, has lately distinguished itself by kidnaping more than a score of Finnish soldiers assigned to the U.N. peacekeeping force. Its purpose was to try to ransom back 11 of its own men who either defected to or were seized by Amal militiamen of the Shia sect.

The SLA--paid, trained, armed and fed by Israel--is supposed to keep things quiet in part of the security zone that Israel has designated on the Lebanon side of the border. In short, it is a proxy for the Israel military presence in Lebanon that now, after three years of enormously costly occupation and to the relief of most Israelis, has come to an end. But exactly how 1,500 men, most of them Christians, are to carry out this task in an area inhabited by hundreds of thousands of Muslim Shias has never been explained.

The inescapable fact is that the Shias have now become the dominant force in southern Lebanon. Amal, the Shias’ major military arm, is determined that the Palestine Liberation Organization will never again gain a foothold in south Lebanon. It is equally determined that the SLA, which it not unreasonably sees as Israel’s stooge, will not be permitted to remain. Amal has never promised that the border with Israel will be quiet if the SLA goes. But it has promised turmoil along that border if the SLA stays and if any Israeli forces remain in Lebanon. Its word ought not to be doubted. And if Amal falters, far more radical Shias who take their guidance from Iran are ready to act.

The SLA isn’t going to give Israel a tranquil border. Achieving a modus vivendi with the Shias just might. Amal won’t enter into any formal arrangement with Israel, but because it doesn’t want reprisals if Israel is attacked from south Lebanon, it isn’t likely to go looking for trouble either. The Shias feel they have the right to control south Lebanon, which means that they won’t tolerate having the SLA in their front yard. Israel would be wise to recognize that fact now, to forget about relying on the absurdly frail reed of the SLA, and to count on the good sense and self-interest of the Shias in the south to keep things calm.