Major Tory Loss in Welsh Vote Seen by Foes as Sign of Thatcher’s Eroding Strength

British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher’s Conservative Party has suffered a stunning defeat in a parliamentary by-election in a rural Welsh constituency, running third behind the victorious Liberal Party and the principal opposition Labor Party, which finished a close second.

Liberal and Labor spokesmen proclaimed the vote an indication that the public has begun to turn in numbers against Thatcher’s tough economic policies and the prospect of continuing high unemployment under her leadership.

“I believe it is the end of the prime minister’s mandate, the end of Thatcherism,” said Liberal Party victor Richard Livsey, whose victory marked the continued rise of the third-party alliance of Liberals and Social Democrats.

Liberal Leader Jaunty

Liberal Party leader David Steel said that the results of Thursday’s voting, announced Friday, are part of consistent voter movement over the last two years toward his moderate third party, an alliance of the Liberals and the Social Democratic Party, a group of Laborites who revolted against their party’s leftist policies.

In May, the coalition recorded surprising gains in county elections. Those gains, analysts said at the time, indicate that British politics are moving toward a true three-party system, a development that could spell trouble for Thatcher’s Conservatives.

In Thursday’s voting, held to fill a seat vacated by the death of a Conservative member of Parliament elected two years ago, the Tories won only 28% of the vote, compared to 36% for the Liberals and 34% for Labor.

In the 1983 general election, Thatcher’s Conservatives won 48% of the vote in the same constituency, far outpacing Labor and the Liberal-Social Democratic alliance, which polled 25% and 24% respectively. Under their agreement, Liberals and Social Democrats pool their strength by not running candidates in the same district.

Conservative Party chairman John Selwyn Gummer discounted suggestions that the message was anti-Thatcher, saying that “it’s always true in by-elections that the government party doesn’t do very well.” But, Gummer noted, “Of course, I’m disappointed.”

Thatcher Is Silent

Thatcher, who was meeting Friday afternoon with a group of U.S. senators monitoring the U.S.-Soviet arms-control talks in Geneva, issued no public comment on the results.

Despite the closeness of the top two contenders, with the Liberal and Labor candidates separated by only 559 of the nearly 40,000 votes cast, the outcome also was seen as a significant setback for Labor. Its strategists had hoped that the results would mark the first step in a political comeback after the party’s disastrous defeat in the 1983 elections and would cast the spotlight on party leader Neil Kinnock as a viable future prime minister.

The Brecon and Radnor constituency, although the second largest in Britain, has only 48,000 voters. Predominantly rural, it is known for a long tradition of political independence.

However, Thursday’s vote was the first parliamentary race in six months and follows a period in which the Conservatives have steadily dropped in public opinion polls and have seen many economic indicators--including unemployment, interest rates and inflation--turn against them.

At the same time, there has been increasing rebellion in Conservative Party ranks and concern that Thatcher’s refusal to budge on harsh public-spending cutbacks will cost the party dearly at the polls in the next general election.

A significant body of Conservative opinion, however, holds that Thatcher has nothing to gain by turning back now, since her vote-getting ability is believed to be based on her image as a leader with a firm plan for a long-rudderless society.