Nicaragua Political Opposition Stymied by Sandinistas, Own Ineptitude

The political opposition to Nicaragua’s leftist Sandinista government has fallen into a slump.

Opposition politicians agree that they should get behind a strong leader and try to rally popular discontent in order to challenge the Marxist-led Sandinistas. But today, exactly six years after the Sandinistas took power, the opposition has little hope of becoming an effective counterforce.

It is overwhelmed by Sandinista dominance, overshadowed by anti-Sandinista guerrilla warfare and overcome by its own ineptitude.

The main opposition organization, the Democratic Coordinating Alliance, languishes in inertia and disarray.

“Its activity is practically nil,” Erick Ramirez, acting president of the Social Christian Party, one of the two main parties in the alliance, said the other day. “There is an inertia from lack of leadership, and lack of clarity in goals and strategy.”

Complain of Restrictions

Ramirez and the leaders of other parties complain of strict censorship by the authorities, restrictions on party gatherings and harassment of party officers, including arrests. Ramirez named three provincial leaders of the Social Christian Party who he said have been detained for more than six months as counterrevolutionaries.

“They haven’t done anything,” Ramirez said.

Social Christians have been trying to put on outdoor political rallies in the provinces despite a government ban on such meetings. In his office at party headquarters, Ramirez proudly showed a photo of country people gathered at a town in the province of Matagalpa.

“The campesinos turned out despite threats by militiamen and soldiers against this meeting,” he said. “This shows that the people are prepared to run certain risks. . . . There is enormous discontent in Nicaragua, and this discontent finds its outlet to the degree that the parties can use it.”

Nevertheless, “very few” political rallies are being organized, Ramirez said, adding: “It is difficult because of the repressive action of the government, but we are going to keep trying.”

Called for ‘Dialogue’

Besides Ramirez’s Social Christians, the other major element in the alliance is the Social Democrats. The small Constitutional Liberal Party, two labor organizations and six business associations also belong.

Occasionally, members of the coordinating alliance get together to discuss their problems and issue a statement. Their most recent was a plaintive call for a “national dialogue” to seek a consensus between Nicaragua’s “democratic sectors” and the government, which “intends to impose a Marxist-Leninist regime on the country.”

The alliance decided not to take part in last year’s elections for president and a constituent assembly because, it said, the Sandinistas would not allow a free and fair contest.

“It was a historical error not to run,” Ramirez said.

The man who would have been the alliance’s presidential candidate, Arturo Cruz, is now in exile and has thrown his support to the anti-Sandinista guerrillas, the contras. Without Cruz, the opposition has no strong leader, Ramirez said.

Competing With Contras

Ramirez said the political opposition has trouble competing with the contras for the allegiance of discontented Nicaraguans. The policy of the Reagan Administration, focused on the contras, encourages the hopes for a military solution, he said.

Washington gives the political opposition little moral support, Ramirez and other Nicaraguan politicians complain. And a foreign diplomat agreed.

“To a very large degree, that’s their own fault,” the diplomat said. “They’ve shown themselves to be generally incompetent over the last few years.”

Although the diplomat noted that some opposition parties and labor unions have recently become more active in organizational work, a major opposition resurgence is unlikely.

“If they do turn a corner and become effective, that increases the chances that the Sandinistas will stomp on them,” he said.

Critics of the government contend that the Sandinistas are undermining the anti-Marxist opposition by weakening--in some cases taking over--private businesses.

Farm Expropriated

As part of an agrarian reform program, the government recently expropriated the 27,000-acre farm and agribusiness of Enrique Bolanos, president of the Superior Council of Private Enterprise. The six business associations in the council are also members of the Democratic Coordinating Alliance.

Bolanos says the expropriation was in reprisal for his political activity.

Luis Rivas Leiva, secretary general of the Social Democratic Party, said the Sandinista authorities harass and intimidate opposition party leaders as part of “a strategy to minimize the political action of the parties.”

Since June 15, the security police have been holding Luis Manuel Mora, the party’s chief of communications, and Mauricio Menbreno, secretary of the Social Democratic Youth organization. No charges have been filed.

Draft Takes Activists

Most of the party’s young men, who traditionally have been the most active workers at the grass-roots level, have been lost because of the military draft. Some have been inducted into the army and others have gone into hiding or have fled the country to avoid the draft.

“It has taken away our activists,” Rivas Leiva said. “That has been decisive in our loss of political presence.”

Lack of access to the press has also been important. Two of the three daily newspapers in Nicaragua are published by Sandinistas, and the third is under strict censorship. The government also controls what is broadcast on radio and television.

“They want to make us disappear from public view, and they are succeeding,” Rivas Leiva said.

Young Women Trained

He said provincial party officials have complained of the national party’s “lack of imagination” in trying to overcome such obstacles. In response, the Social Democrats are planning to put together a weekly newsletter to be distributed privately.

To replace young men as political workers, the party is training young women. “We have been preparing groups for about two months,” Rivas Leiva said.

Still, he said, reorganization will not by itself solve the problems of the political opposition as long as the guerrilla war continues.

“The military action is cutting us out of the game,” he said. “The armed groups grow numerically stronger while we grow weaker. . . . The situation is moving toward a generalized military confrontation.”

If the contras win, Rivas Leiva said, the opposition parties need to be ready to play a postwar government role. And even if the contras are defeated, the Sandinistas might be so weakened by the war that they will be vulnerable to political challenge, he speculated.

So the Social Democrats are biding their time, trying to keep up their strength, and awaiting the outcome of the war.