Polish Leadership Straining to Get Sizable Turnout in Oct. 13 Elections

With only two months to go before national parliamentary elections, the Polish government is showing signs of anxiety about the voter turnout in a contest that many Poles view as a test of strength between the Communist authorities and the outlawed Solidarity movement.

Solidarity’s underground organization has called for a boycott of the Oct. 13 election, and some Roman Catholic clergymen have openly questioned the usefulness of voting for members of a Parliament that never rejects government-sponsored legislation.

The government, on the other hand, hopes to use a strong voter turnout as proof of its claims that Solidarity is dying and that normalization of political life in Poland is all but complete as Polish society comes to recognize the wisdom of Premier Wojciech Jaruzelski’s economic and social policies.

‘Whole World Watching’

“It is no exaggeration to say that the whole world will again be watching Poland this October,” Jaruzelski told the Communist Party Central Committee last week in a confident prediction of victory.

“Friends will do so with the hope that the voting will confirm the process of stabilization and consolidation of agreement among the Poles. They will not be disappointed. Foes will harbor opposite expectations. These will not materialize. We have demonstrated that Poland will not be a pawn in someone else’s game. Once again we shall confirm this in the elections.”

The clearest indication of the government’s anxiety about the outcome is an unpublicized decision last Wednesday to grant Polish radio and television an immediate budget increase of 36%--nearly a billion zlotys, or $6.5 million--for a major pre-election propaganda campaign.

In its emergency budget proposal, the state Committee for Radio and Television said the money will be used in part for 160 hours of programming designed to “create . . . a feeling of satisfaction” toward the authorities among the Polish public, according to a copy of the document obtained by Solidarity activists and made available to Western reporters.

The document said state radio and television will appeal to younger voters in part by introducing candidates to the Sejm--the Parliament--at pop concerts. Broadcasts over the next two months are to feature songs with patriotic themes selected to “arouse optimism and hope” among impressionable youth.

The government has offered no public forecasts of voter turnout, but Communist Party officials have suggested that participation by 80% to 82% of the electorate would be considered a victory, despite the fact that other Soviet Bloc countries routinely claim to bring out 98% or more of the voters.

“Even 75% is shockingly low for this part of the world,” a Western diplomat remarked.

60% Turnout Feared

Anything less than the 75% turnout claimed at local government elections in June, 1984--a figure that Solidarity charged was inflated by at least 10%--would be regarded as a propaganda disaster for the Jaruzelski regime. Some liberal party figures, however, have said privately in recent days that they fear that the turnout may be no greater than 60%.

The last parliamentary elections were in March, 1980, before the nationwide wave of strikes that summer that gave rise to Solidarity, the independent trade union movement. Elections were to have been held in March, 1984, but were postponed, apparently to avoid a showdown with the pro-Solidarity opposition.

Poles are under no legal obligation to vote. But those who fail to pick up a ballot at local polling places can be identified by a check of registration ledgers and face the possibility of retribution.

Even so, recent public opinion surveys taken by the government do not augur well for an enthusiastic turnout at the polls. One survey, reported in the official weekly Polityka last week, cites an “alarming” growth in pessimism about the country’s debt-burdened economy. Just under half of those polled said the government’s efforts to avert a future economic crisis were inadequate, while 64% answered negatively when asked whether its policies are likely to solve Poland’s problems.

‘Complex Situation’

In its emergency budget request to the government’s Council of Ministers (the Cabinet), the state radio and television agency said the current “complex social and political situation” will make its role in the election campaign especially difficult. A major task of the electronic media, it said, will be to provide a “rich and varied information and propaganda context for the election campaign.”

The document calls for a fresh approach to presenting the elections to the public, one that discards “previous stereotypes and traditional patterns” of programming and strives instead to “create in radio listeners and TV viewers a feeling of satisfaction and a conviction about the innovative undertakings of the authorities.”

Radio and television, the budget document said, should aim at convincing the public not only that the form and substance of elections have changed for the better but also that positive changes include the “way political organizations communicate with each other and the way the organs of authority communicate with society.”

Hard-Currency Outlay

Part of the funding increase is to be spent in the form of $1.5 million in hard currency for imported Western cameras and editing equipment, and part for 80 new office cars. Another $532,000 is earmarked for extra wages to radio and television workers, who, the document said, are to be paid premium rates for election work.

The government spokesman, Jerzy Urban, confirmed that the government had granted the added funds, on July 31, for “election tasks,” but he said the money would also improve the overall quality of Polish television through the purchase of more up-to-date equipment.