Marcos Rattles Philippine Opposition With Threat to Call Snap Vote

Ferdinand E. Marcos, the combative president of the Philippines, has had the opposition here backpedaling recently in response to his threat to call snap elections.

The threat appears to have been a feint, but it shook his political foes for a few weeks. And in the face of stubborn problems with the economy and a Communist-led insurgency, the possibility of quick elections made presidential politics the No. 1 issue in this city again, two years before the next scheduled balloting.

In the coffee shops of Manila, politicians and others spun out countless scenarios. Among them:

--Marcos wants a presidential election before next year’s local elections because he fears that the opposition will improve its organization and increase its momentum in the balloting for municipal and provincial offices. The opposition won nearly a third of the seats in the 1984 parliamentary elections, a show of strength that rattled the ruling New Society Movement.

--Marcos opposes an early presidential election because the opposition now is merging in support of Corazon Aquino, widow of the assassinated opposition leader Benigno S. Aquino Jr., as a unity candidate. Marcos believes that opposition infighting might diminish that unity by 1987. So far, Corazon Aquino has declined to declare her candidacy, but her supporters insist that she has not closed the option.

--The president has no intention of facing a vote until 1987, when the law requires it. Even then, his detractors say, he may use his extraordinary constitutional powers to dodge the election. “Marcos will never leave Malacanang (the presidential palace) while there is breath in his body,” a political analyst said.

Would Have to Resign

Under the law, Marcos cannot seek reelection in a snap ballot unless he resigns the presidency. His resignation would place the government under the stewardship of the Speaker of the National Assembly and require emergency elections within 48 to 70 days.

A widespread conclusion is that Marcos and his party, known as the KBL, raised the possibility of a snap election in an effort to confuse the opposition as it prepared to file impeachment proceedings against him in Parliament.

The motion to impeach, which accuses the president of “graft and corruption, culpable violation of the constitution . . . and other high crimes,” centers on what is called the “hidden wealth” issue. Specifically, it mentioned a series of articles in the San Jose (Calif.) Mercury-News that detailed alleged ownership of expensive properties abroad by Imelda Marcos, the president’s wife and governor of metropolitan Manila, and other government officials.

The KBL majority in Parliament quickly crushed the motion.

Early Election Dropped

This week, a KBL caucus lowered the banner of snap elections as abruptly as it had been raised. The caucus heard a report from municipal officials across the country who had been polled on the possibility of quick elections, and the result was an overwhelming call for Marcos to complete his present six-year term, party officials said.

“Only you can solve the problems of the nation at this time,” Manila Mayor Ramon Bagatsing told the president.

The caucus deferred action and ordered an expanded poll of student, labor and business groups, but it appears that the idea of a snap election is dead for now. A final decision is up to Marcos, a master of political footwork.

The opposition, meanwhile, has been trying to adjust its focus to the 1986 local elections despite the specter of an early presidential vote.

Eva Estrada Kalaw, co-chairman of the Liberal Party, said: “We (the opposition) are still preoccupied by the same issues--presidential candidacy, reconciliation of platforms . . . --forgetting that the most important element to an opposition victory at the polls is a strong and united local machinery to deliver the votes, as we experienced in the last (parliamentary) elections.”

Infighting Mars Unity

The multiparty opposition has agreed to settle on a single candidate whenever the presidential elections take place, but the continued infighting has made the prospect uncertain.

“They’re slicing up the pie before they have it,” a veteran political analyst said.

The only declared candidate of note is former Sen. Salvador Laurel of the UNIDO party. But Corazon Aquino is considered the one opposition figure who could unify all factions against Marcos, if she should choose to run. A third possibility is former Sen. Jovito Salonga, who returned last spring from exile in the United States.

The uncertain factor in all presidential maneuverings is the health of Marcos, who will be 68 in September and is understood to suffer from a kidney-related disease. He has kept up a steady procession of political and presidential appearances in the last few months but, according to the political analyst, who is reputed to have good sources in Malacanang, Marcos is “like a leaking tire that has to be pumped up for every appearance.”

The presidential elections will also fill the vacant vice presidential spot, leading to continued speculation on who the ruling party would designate to step in if Marcos should die in office or become physically unable to rule.