Research Firm Lists Countries With High Risk

An annual business survey tracking the political climate around the world shows sharply increased risks in some countries that the United States strongly supports.

The risk forecast by Frost & Sullivan, a worldwide business intelligence firm based in New York, is designed to warn of conditions that will lead to physical or financial risk to international investors.

On the Frost & Sullivan list of “much more risky” countries in 1986 are:

- Egypt, where the report said that “continued weak economic performance and a stubborn Islamic fundamentalist movement or another embarrassment at the hands of the United States would weaken President Mubarak’s support considerably.”

- Jamaica, where the firm predicted that a “lack of support for the current government of Prime Minister Edward Seaga and persistent economic decline may lead to increased turmoil and decreased tourist earnings.”

- The Philippines. “Everyone, except his closest advisers, wants President Marcos removed. Political turmoil and uncertainty will be high in 1986, despite the elections, especially as the economy continues to deteriorate and the Communist insurgency broadens its attack.”

- Saudi Arabia. “Restrictions on imports and foreign-operated business will grow, reflecting the nationalistic and conservative trend within the country.”

- Also, South Africa, South Korea and Turkey.

Other countries with a steady “very high risk” rating are: Chile, Bolivia, Peru, most Central American countries (except Costa Rica but including Mexico), Iran, Iraq and Syria in the Middle East, and Sri Lanka and Pakistan in South Asia.

In this year’s global survey, Frost & Sullivan listed these countries as having “substantially lower risks” for international businessmen in 1986: Argentina, Brazil, Morocco, Venezuela, Zaire and Zimbabwe.