Haitian Capital Calm, but Unrest Persists in Provinces

Anti-government crowds demonstrated in Haitian provinces Saturday for the seventh straight day despite an official state of siege, but Port-Au-Prince was calm under the watchful eyes of militiamen and army troops.

With order restored in the capital after bloody disturbances Friday, the worst crisis yet for President Jean-Claude Duvalier’s authoritarian government appeared to have eased somewhat, at least for the moment.

Continued protests in the provinces, however, threatened to push Duvalier into a corner. If he harshens repression to muzzle unrest, he risks further tarnishing his already dismal international image. But if the domestic protest movement grows, the danger of a successful revolt against his beleaguered regime also increases.

Either way, the loyalty of the Haitian armed forces is the key to how long Duvalier, 34, remains president a vie --president-for-life.

Demonstrations in 2 Towns

Protest demonstrations were reported by foreign journalists and others Saturday in Gonaives, 80 miles north of Port-au-Prince, Cap Haitien, 160 miles to the north, and St. Marc, 60 miles north.

Security forces used tear gas to break up an early morning gathering in Cap Haitien. Looting and rioting erupted in Gonaives, and crowds skirmished with police during demonstrations in St. Marc. Protesters blocked the northern highway at more than 20 points between Gonaives and Port-au-Prince, travelers said.

The sketchy reports included no information on casualties.

Since November, demonstrations in Gonaives and Cap Haitien have resulted in at least 14 reported deaths, most of them in confrontations with security forces. But in most protests there and elsewhere, army and militia forces have used restraint.

Friday morning, after five successive days of demonstrations and disturbances in the provinces, Duvalier imposed a state of siege on this impoverished Caribbean country of nearly 6 million people. The same day, disturbances broke out in the capital, and six people were reported killed by gunfire.

Helmeted troops with automatic rifles chased bands of youths through downtown streets. Other troops stood guard in front of the shining white National Palace, Duvalier’s government headquarters.

Except for a few guards behind the iron fence and one soldier on a grassy plaza nearby, the troops were gone from in front of the palace Saturday.

The Francois Duvalier International Airport was open, but Haiti Air canceled its flights without explanation. American Airlines, which had canceled its daily flight from New York on Friday, resumed service Saturday.

False rumors that Duvalier had fled the country, circulating here early Friday, apparently helped spark the disturbances.

“I think people took to the streets yesterday thinking Jean-Claude had left, and when they found out he had not left they were angry,” one diplomat said Saturday. “When the mobs got their heads cracked, they said, ‘I’m not going to do this again.’ ”

Haiti, the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere, has been ruled by the Duvalier family since 1957, when Jean-Claude’s father, Francois, took power. Francois Duvalier, known as “Papa Doc,” kept strict control over the country with the help of a ruthless militia force known as the Tontons Macoutes, or bogeymen.

Aid Withheld 11 Years

Objecting to the repression and corruption, the Kennedy Administration cut off U.S. aid to Haiti in 1962. The aid was not resumed for 11 years.

Jean-Claude Duvalier, who inherited power and the title of president-for-life when his father died in 1971, eased the repression but kept the militia active under the name of National Security Volunteers.

Last November, when the wave of anti-government protests began, three people were killed by security forces, including militiamen. But since then, repression of demonstrations has often been relatively mild.

Long cowed by fear of the security forces, Haitians became suddenly bold in challenging Duvalier’s authority.

Duvalier has good reason to show a measure of tolerance. Since 1983, part of the U.S. aid to Haiti has been granted on the legal condition that the government make improvements in human rights conditions and advance toward democracy.

Each fiscal year, it is up to the State Department to certify--or not to certify--that progress has been made. Last year, Haiti received “certification” and a total of $53.6 million in U.S. aid.

So far in the current fiscal year, however, there has been no certification, and a scheduled $56 million in aid has been delayed.

Most of the aid can be legally delivered without certification, but the delay signals increased U.S. concern about the worthiness of the Duvalier government.

“It would be very difficult to certify under the conditions that are prevailing in the country,” said a U.S. official in Port-au-Prince.

Sensitive to Washington

Like most countries around the Caribbean, Haiti is sensitive to the political and economic power of the United States. The Haitian people’s extreme poverty would worsen sharply without U.S. trade, investment and aid. And Duvalier’s uncertain grip on power would weaken with Washington against him.

Haiti also poses a dilemma for the Reagan Administration. If the Administration supports a repressive government here, it invites criticism from both Haitians and Americans. But if the Administration abandons Duvalier, it could be contributing to his fall, with unpredictable consequences.

There is no guerrilla organization in Haiti and no important opposition organization of any kind. That absence helps Duvalier, but it also adds to the difficulty of predicting what would happen if he fell.

There are several embryo opposition groups that call themselves parties but have no mass following and little to do with the current demonstrations. In fact, the main weakness of the protest movement is that it has no identifiable leaders or organization for people to rally around.

The Roman Catholic Church has been a major force in promoting popular demand for economic, political and social reform.

“The government clearly wishes the church would pipe down,” said a foreign diplomat in Port-au-Prince.

But the institution with the greatest potential for changing the government is the armed forces.

With 8,000 members, modern weapons from Israel and training by the United States, the armed forces are potentially the most powerful organized force in the country. All major unit commanders report directly to Duvalier, who is said to pay well for the loyalty of officers.

Lofty Title

The armed forces’ chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Henri Namphy, is widely regarded as a powerless administrator with a lofty title.

“The chief of staff can’t command anyone,” said Hubert de Ronceray, an outspoken civilian oppositionist. “He is a symbol.”

Tacitly recognizing an organizational vacuum in the anti-Duvalier protest movement, Ronceray said that what is needed to bring Duvalier down is “a capable, decided and convinced army.”

Demonstrators during the past week apparently have hoped that the army will come to their side. Along with chants of “Down with Duvalier!” they have often shouted “Long live the army!”