Duvalier Survives Protests; Fall Still Predicted

Jean-Claude Duvalier’s presidential power has been tested as never before by a surging wave of popular protest. He has met the challenge with a mixture of restraint and bloody force.

After eight days of demonstrations and disturbances in cities around the country, no new anti-government protests were reported in the first three days of this week. Nevertheless, few here believe that Duvalier’s authoritarian government is out of danger.

“He has won this one,” a businesswoman in Port-au-Prince said, but she predicted that the trouble will return and that eventually it will cost the young president his job.

“He is finished,” she said.

On Friday, after Duvalier imposed an official state of siege throughout the country, security forces skirmished with groups of young men in some of the central areas of Port-au-Prince. No death toll has been announced officially, but employees of the city’s general hospital and other sources estimate that more than 50 civilians were killed.

The army and the militia, both under Duvalier’s direct command, have shown no leniency in keeping order in the capital, where it counts most.

Duvalier, 34, became “president for life” on the death of his father, President-for-Life Francois (Papa Doc) Duvalier, who ruled from 1957 to 1971. The son has now held power longer than did his father or any of his other predecessors in the 20th Century.

Fear Muffles Unrest

Under both Duvaliers, widespread fear of brutal repression has muffled unrest among the impoverished and largely illiterate population. The ruthless and often lethal methods of a countrywide militia force, known as the Tontons Macoutes (bogeymen), has helped keep Haitians in line.

But in recent years, Roman Catholic priests and Protestant missionaries have been teaching poor Haitians such concepts as human rights, democracy and social justice. At the same time, Duvalier has eased repression in fits and starts, responding in part to pressure from the United States and other Western countries.

As a result, the old climate of fear among Haitians has begun to change, and Haitians have become more inclined to protest.

Harsh Life for the Poor

There is much to protest. In addition to their long subjugation under the Duvaliers, life has become increasingly hard for the Haitian poor. Most of the country’s forests have been stripped away for wood and cooking charcoal. The resulting erosion has reduced the amount of already scarce farmland.

In the 1970s, just when tourism was beginning to boom in Haiti, providing needed jobs, it was cut to a trickle by a world recession and an outbreak of AIDS--acquired immune deficiency syndrome--here.

Also, the country’s entire pig population was wiped out by African swine fever and a U.S.-sponsored program to eradicate the disease by killing the surviving animals. Haitian peasants depended heavily on pigs for food and income.

Malnutrition is widespread in the country, which has the lowest income per capita in the Western Hemisphere. Average income in rural Haiti is around $150 a year, and three-quarters of the population is rural.

In May, 1984, food riots erupted in several Haitian towns and villages. That was the first sign that Haitians in large numbers had grown desperate and bold enough to defy security forces on the streets. Some analysts say those riots set the example for anti-government protests that broke out in late November, early December, early January and again in late January.

The protests gained momentum as news of them went out over two nationwide radio networks run by the Catholic and Baptist churches. On Friday the government shut down the two radio operations under the new state of siege.

In many of the provincial protests last week, army troops stood back, taking no action against demonstrators, even when mobs looted food warehouses and stores.

Some diplomats and other analysts said the army obviously had orders to show restraint and avoid bloodshed that might fuel the protest movement and bring criticism from abroad.

Militia Fears for Safety

Members of the blue-uniformed militia also stayed out of many protests. One diplomat speculated that the militiamen feared for their own safety.

Troops and militiamen did move to stop some demonstrations, however. Scores of protesters were killed and wounded.

By far the severest repression came Friday in Port-au-Prince. It is here in the capital that Duvalier’s government could be most directly threatened by mass demonstrations, and the president made it clear that harsh repression is preferable to turmoil in the capital.

‘Many, Many, Many’ Arrested

Gerard Gourgue, president of the Haitian Human Rights League, said the number killed in Friday’s repression here was “50-up.” He said Tontons Macoutes have been making night roundups in the Port-au-Prince slum areas since Friday, arresting “many, many, many” people.

Gourgue told foreign reporters Monday that the security forces are firmly in control of the capital. He suggested--and other analysts also take this view--that it would take a military coup to topple the government.

“Military coups don’t start in the streets,” Gourgue said.

There has been no sign so far that any military officers might turn against Duvalier because of the popular discontent. But in Haiti, where officials suspected of disloyalty to the president are quickly removed, coup plotters are not likely to signal their intentions.