But Some Fear a ‘Cycle of Violence’ Has Begun : Joyless Tripoli Returns to Normal

The other night, a brass band and several carloads of anti-U.S. demonstrators showed up in front of Tripoli’s El Kabir Hotel and made a lot of noise until U.S. television crews came out and filmed them. With the event recorded, they went away again.

The next morning, quieter but equally large crowds assembled in front of bakeries and grocery stores to buy bread. This event was not recorded, however. Since bread lines are not part of the image of Libya that the government of Col. Moammar Kadafi wants to project in the United States at the moment, the camera crews were not allowed to film them.

Nevertheless, the reappearance of demonstrators at night and bread lines during the day are the two surest signs that life has returned to normal in Tripoli after the U.S. air attack of April 15.

Thousands Returning

The thousands of Libyans who fled the capital after the air strike--causing, in their panic, at least 30 traffic fatalities--are back now. Slowly, the shops are reopening, and the big state-run supermarkets are once again crowded with shoppers stocking up on the handful of items available on the largely bare shelves.

But if life in this joyless city has returned to what passes for normal, there is a lingering tension born of the conviction, shared by Libyans and Westerners here, that the crisis is not over.

Indeed, nervous Western diplomats in Tripoli say, the conflict between Libya and the United States may just be beginning.

“I think a cycle of violence has been set in motion, a cycle that will be difficult, if not impossible, to stop,” one foreign envoy said. “Somewhere, somehow, I think the Libyans will have to retaliate, and what happens after that I don’t want to even think about.”

Other diplomats, observing that the regime appears to have been surprised and deeply shaken by the raid on Tripoli and Benghazi, note that Kadafi has so far reacted with considerable restraint, and they predict that he may delay or at least think twice about retaliating.

However, these diplomats also worry that terrorist reprisals against Americans overseas may be impossible to prevent, even if Libya does not sanction them.

“There are an awful lot of people out there, especially in places like Lebanon, with loose screws in their heads, and I worry about the effect this is going to have on them,” one diplomat said.

While there are a number of terrorist groups, composed of Palestinians and Lebanese Shia Muslims among others, that are suspected of doing Kadafi’s bidding from time to time, they are by no means controlled by him, and they have their own reasons for attacking the United States, the diplomats note.

There have already been bloody reprisals in Beirut, where a British journalist has been kidnaped and at least three other hostages--two Britons and an American--have been killed in retaliation for the U.S. action and Britain’s support of it.

Retaliation Predicted

“Quite likely, there will be more retaliations on Libya’s behalf, whether the Libyans approve of them or not,” one diplomat predicted.

Such concern may have been the motive behind a curious announcement made by Libyan Information Minister Sharifeddin Faituri to foreign correspondents in Tripoli on Wednesday night, diplomats speculated.

Libya, the minister told reporters, had uncovered evidence that the CIA and Israel were about to carry out a terrorist attack against Americans in Europe with the aim of blaming it on Libya to create the pretext for another military strike.

To many observers, it sounded like the Libyans knew or feared that something was going to happen and were trying to distance themselves from it beforehand.

In the immediate aftermath of this month’s air attack, many diplomats here expressed shock and dismay that the United States would choose to bomb military targets so close to civilian areas that innocent casualties became unavoidable.

Now, however, these diplomats say they have little doubt that the Reagan Administration will strike again--and perhaps harder--the next time Americans are killed in a terrorist attack.

But there could be additional complications the next time, the diplomats fear.

So far, other Arab states and the Soviet Union have been reluctant to come to Libya’s aid with anything more than rhetoric. But the longer the crisis continues, the more the pressure will mount on these countries to take some form of political action, such as a boycott of American goods, as requested by Libya.

Pressure on Soviets

Pressure to become involved on Libya’s behalf is also likely to mount on the Soviet Union, despite the fact that it has so far tried to stay out of the crisis militarily, diplomats said.

“I don’t think the Russians want to be dragged into a confrontation with the United States over this, but their reluctance to help Libya is deeply embarrassing for them, especially in the eyes of their other Arab allies, Syria and South Yemen,” one Western envoy said. “If there is another U.S. air strike, the Russians may feel compelled by their regional interests to do more than just issue denouncements on Tass.”

Already there are signs of an increased Soviet military presence in Libya in the wake of the April 15 air strike. Over the last 10 days, a number of Soviet naval vessels have arrived in Tripoli harbor. They include what appear to be transport ships unloading military supplies and surveillance vessels capable of monitoring U.S. air and sea activity in the Mediterranean.

“So far, this conflict has been between Reagan and Kadafi,” a Western diplomat said. “But if there are Russian casualties the next time, then it will take on a whole new dimension. I don’t want to think about that either.”

Times staff writer Michael Ross was recently on assignment in Tripoli.