Study Says Risk of Dying From Cancer Is Rising
Americans are losing the war against cancer, with the odds of dying from the disease increasing in the last three decades, a new report concludes.
The study recommends that scientists concentrate on finding ways to prevent cancer, not new means to treat it.
“We see no reason for optimism about overall progress in recent years,” the researchers wrote. “There is no reason to think that, on the whole, cancer is becoming any less common.”
8% Rise in Deaths
In fact, their statistics suggest just the opposite. In 1950, 170 of every 100,000 Americans died of cancer. In 1982, after the figures were adjusted to reflect the aging population, there were 185 deaths per 100,000, an 8% increase.
The National Cancer Institute has set a goal of cutting cancer mortality in half by the year 2000. The researchers said this won’t happen unless there is “a precipitous and unprecedented decline” in the cancer death rate in the next 14 years.
Responding to the report, a federal cancer official said steady progress is being made against the disease, and he said the institute’s goals are realistic.
The report was written by Drs. John C. Bailar III of the Harvard School of Public Health and Elaine M. Smith of the University of Iowa Medical Center. It was published in today’s New England Journal of Medicine, where Bailar serves as statistical consultant.
Early Diagnosis Urged
“We’re not saying treatment is no good,” Bailar said in an interview. “We’re convinced that every cancer patient should get a diagnosis as early as possible and the best possible treatment. What we’re saying is that cancer treatment is not getting a whole lot better.”
Some experts disagreed with the researchers’ contention. Dr. John Durant, president of the American Society of Clinical Oncology, called Bailar “the great naysayer of our time.”
At the American Cancer Society, Dr. Lawrence Garfinkel said: “There’s no doubt that the reason the overall death rate continues to go up is because of lung cancer. If you take away lung cancer, instead of having an 8% increase, you have a 13% decrease.”
