He’s a Smash, but Now What?

Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone has led his conservative Liberal Democratic Party to a sweeping triumph in Japan’s parliamentary elections, and while a requisite display of humility may prevent him from demanding that victory’s main prize, ambition won’t stop him from accepting it. Nakasone wants to go on leading the government, and to do that he must first be reelected as his party’s president. For that to happen would require a change in the party’s two-term rule--something that other ambitious chieftains within the fractious LDP aren’t eager to approve. But the numbers are there. The LDP’s landslide hugely strengthens Nakasone’s bid to hold on.

Relinquishing power was never in the cards for the conservatives, who have controlled the government for more than 30 years. The largely colorless and programmatically sterile Socialist Party, the main opposition group, has little mass appeal. At worst, the LDP might again have been forced to rely on the support of one or more smaller parties to retain control. Had that happened, or even if the LDP had won only a bare majority, Nakasone would have been out, and probably few would have regretted his departure. He is not excessively popular within his own party, and in recent weeks his personal standing with the electorate has declined as the economy has slipped toward recession. The projected 300 seats won by the LDP are likely now to subdue if not silence the doubters.

Nakasone is rare among Japan’s politicians in that he has shown a willingness, within limits and on occasion, to pull and tug rather than just lead. He has endorsed proposals to stimulate domestic demand in an effort to reduce the reliance on exports that has brought Japan soaring trade surpluses and commensurate frictions with its trading partners. He favors spending more on defense, and is prepared to have Japan play a more prominent role in world affairs. There has been no rush among Japanese to embrace these ideas, all of which depart from comfortable postwar tradition, and in the end what many see as Nakasone’s brashness and ultranationalism may yet deny him the reward that he seeks. But facts are facts in any political system. Nakasone has presided over a smashing victory. It won’t be easy to reject his continued leadership.