Analysis : Team Seeks Antidote for Year of Dodger Blues : As Embarrassing Season Nears an End, Solutions at Not Too Steep a Price Are Being Weighed

It’s not true that when they held their organizational meetings at a local hotel this week, Dodger officials checked in under assumed names.

But they weren’t passing out cigars, either, in what has been one of the most embarrassing seasons in Dodger history--and that was before the in-house embezzlement story hit the papers.

Injuries or no, Dodger teams simply don’t finish last. It has never happened in Los Angeles, and even Al Campanis, the soon-to-be septuagenarian, hadn’t been born the last time it happened in Brooklyn, which was 1905.

Is it any wonder that owner Peter O’Malley occasionally showed more interest in baseball as it’s played in China than as it has been butchered in Chavez Ravine?

The rest of the organization didn’t fare much better. The Triple-A team, Albuquerque, finished last, as did the Class-A team, Bakersfield.

O’Malley, to be sure, is not one to abide failure, especially when on-field breakdowns translate into a slowdown at the turnstiles.

Even with a large crowd for fireworks Friday night and a sellout for fan appreciation day Sunday, attendance still figures to be off nearly 150,000 from last season and almost half a million behind the big league record of 3.6 million the Dodgers drew in 1982.

Those kind of losses are not suffered lightly, even for a ballclub that’s probably worth $100 million, give or take a few sou.

So what’s to be done?

First, what probably won’t be done: It’s unlikely there will be a major free-agent signing.

A blockbuster trade also is improbable, although Greg Brock almost certainly and Bill Madlock conceivably will be wearing a different uniform next season in exchange for a relief pitcher.

A Dodger official said Friday that the team has not yet set its posture on free agency, but the ballclub that last winter signed its first $2-million player--Fernando Valenzuela--doesn’t appear inclined to sign another.

It would take at least that much to sign free agent Tim Raines, who figures to command something in the neighborhood of a three-year, $6-million contract, whether or not he leaves Montreal.

Raines, 26, would give the Dodgers a legitimate center fielder and a genuine leadoff threat, one who hits .300-.330 and steals 70-100 bases.

The Dodgers admitted they could use as much two years ago when they pursued Rickey Henderson but lost him to the Yankees. The need still exists, but in the current atmosphere of fiscal conservatism--some have suggested it is owner collusion--it’s almost inconceivable that O’Malley will engage in any high-stakes bidding for Raines.

Besides, when it comes to free agents, the team’s No. 1 priority will be to re-sign pitcher Bob Welch, whose 7-13 record will not prevent somebody from making him a millionaire this winter.

The Dodgers still maintain that with a healthy Pedro Guerrero and Mike Marshall, they would have challenged Houston for the National League’s Western Division title, and will do so next season.

But in a winter of reflecting, the following are major goals to be considered:

1. Signing Welch. Throw out the won-loss record. Welch, who will turn 30 in a month, made it through an entire season without any elbow trouble and on a better team would have been a 15-game winner. In 19 of his 33 starts, the Dodgers scored three runs or fewer. There simply aren’t many pitchers of Welch’s quality around, and the Dodgers can’t afford his departure from the rotation.

Welch, who made $743,750 in 1986, probably can be had for roughly $3.25 million for the next three years.

2. Find a quality reliever. The Dodgers thought they had two in Ken Howell and Tom Niedenfuer. Niedenfuer was bombed early, recovered, then spent much of the last month and a half hurt. Howell, unhittable early, has been a mess for months, his control and confidence vanishing in that order. Howell is too young and throws too hard for the Dodgers to give up on yet, but the Dodgers have no choice but to find someone who can come out of the bullpen and get an out. Easier said than done.

Ed Vande Berg, it goes without saying, was a major disappointment. Dennis Powell may be the next left-handed hope.

3. Decide on a center fielder. Assuming the Dodgers don’t sign Raines, the job will be wide-open again in the spring. Reggie Williams, who played the position for much of the season, figures to be a fourth outfielder at best next year. The Dodgers are reluctant to give the job back to the 1985 incumbent, Ken Landreaux, so if none of the kids--Jose Gonzalez, Mike Devereaux, Chris Gwynn--are ready, the Dodgers may be forced to deal.

4. Decide where to play Guerrero. His hot September hitting notwithstanding, Guerrero’s health remains a question mark. At first base, he’ll be a defensive liability on a club that made 178 errors through its first 160 games. But can he run enough to play left field?

5. Decide where to play Mike Marshall. Marshall’s back makes him a question mark, too. A strong case could be made to put Marshall at first base and forget about the position for the next 10 years. That would make him happy, and would improve the team defense, too. But before the Dodgers can do that, they have to . . .

6. Decide what to do with Brock. His 71 home runs in four years notwithstanding, Brock seems destined to play elsewhere next season. His numbers against left-handers probably cinch the case: .102 average, 0 home runs, 1 run batted in. He could wind up being 1987’s Candy Maldonado: an ex-Dodger who blossoms in another setting.

7. Decide what to do with Madlock. The only Dodger who had at least 60 RBIs, Madlock has hit .323 with runners in scoring position. But Madlock, who will be 36 in January, may also be one of the few Dodgers who could bring something of value in a trade. If the Dodgers decide Jeff Hamilton is ready to take over at third, where Madlock has made most of his team-leading 26 errors (a sore ankle was responsible in part), the four-time batting champion could wind up as somebody’s designated hitter in the American League.

8. Decide whether Franklin Stubbs is a big league hitter. Stubbs has hit a team-leading 23 home runs. For the second time in three seasons, he also vanished into a slump of Bermuda Triangle proportions. The Dodgers think Stubbs is still learning, but the jury is still out.

9. Decide the futures of pitchers Jerry Reuss and Alejandro Pena. It doesn’t look promising in either case. Elbow trouble at age 37 could finish Reuss, though he has two years remaining on his contract. Pena has made progress from his radical shoulder surgery in 1984, but whether that progress is enough to retain a spot on the staff is questionable.