U.S. Skeptical About Soviets’ Afghan Pullout

Three days before the U.S.-Soviet summit conference in Iceland, Defense Secretary Caspar W. Weinberger, acting with White House approval, on Wednesday challenged the veracity of the Soviet assertion that it is withdrawing troops from Afghanistan.

Weinberger told Chinese Defense Minister Zhang Aiping that the Soviets are carrying out “a ruse” by introducing new troops into Afghanistan in order to be able to withdraw others without substantially reducing their overall strength.

His remarks reflected his effort to convince his hosts here and at other stops on a global tour, as well as officials in the U.S. government, that recent diplomatic overtures by the Soviet Union should be viewed with skepticism, even as President Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail S. Gorbachev are about to meet in Iceland.

In addressing the situation in Afghanistan, which the Chinese seem to have de-emphasized over the past two years, Weinberger referred to a speech Gorbachev delivered July 28 in Vladivostok.

6 Regiments to Leave

Gorbachev said then that “six regiments will be returned before the end of 1986--one armored regiment, two motorized rifle regiments and three anti-aircraft regiments--with their integral equipment and armaments.”

But Weinberger said the United States has yet to see a change in Soviet activity in Afghanistan, or evidence of a net withdrawal of troops.

Not long after Weinberger spoke out here, however, the Soviet Defense Ministry announced in Moscow that the promised withdrawal of six regiments from Afghanistan will get under way next Wednesday and will be completed by the end of the month. Western military experts estimate that the number of troops to be pulled out will be about 7,000.

According to Western military attaches in Moscow, there are about 550 troops in each anti-aircraft regiment, 2,100 in each motorized rifle regiment and 1,100 in each armored regiment--making a total of about 6,950 troops affected by Gorbachev’s order.

The Soviet force in Afghanistan is said by U.S. officials to number more than 118,000. Soviet troops entered Afghanistan in December, 1979, to support a Marxist government against Muslim guerrillas.

‘No Sign of Change’

“We expected there to be a ruse by the Soviets in putting in more so they can appear to withdraw, with a net combat gain,” Weinberger told Zhang, according to a U.S. official who asked that he not be further identified. “There’s no sign of a change there, although we welcome it.”

The Soviets have routinely shifted their troops in Afghanistan, pulling out soldiers who have served their tours and replacing them with fresh units. The lessons learned in the initial years of combat against the battle-weary moujahedeen rebels have allowed the Soviets to improve their operations not only in Afghanistan but in other guerrilla conflicts as well, U.S. officials have said.

However, the U.S. official, who spoke with reporters after Weinberger completed a full day of talks with Chinese leaders, said that in the past several weeks there have been new signs of troop shifts in the wake of Gorbachev’s promise of withdrawal.

“We think they’ll wind up with the same number of troops in Afghanistan, with a greater military capability,” the official said.

The official declined to discuss the details of the intelligence reports on which the defense secretary based his remarks or to disclose specific evidence that recent troop shifts represented a rotation, rather than an actual reduction in forces.

Afghan Comments Stressed

While the period before a summit conference is particularly sensitive, a U.S. official briefing journalists about Weinberger’s meetings took care to highlight the secretary’s comments on Afghanistan. Weinberger made similar comments in an interview with ABC News that was transcribed and made public by the U.S. Embassy here.

Asked whether the comments made by Weinberger in the private meetings with the Chinese officials carried White House approval, the official said: “We don’t do anything without White House knowledge and approval and full support.”

China has repeatedly listed the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan as one of the three obstacles to improved Sino-Soviet relations, along with the presence of Soviet troops on China’s northern border and Soviet support for Vietnam’s forces in Cambodia. However, over the past two years, Chinese officials have appeared to place less importance on the impact that the military action in Afghanistan is having on its relations with Moscow.

Cambodia Key for China

On Wednesday, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said the Vietnamese occupation of Cambodia is the “key obstacle” between China and the Soviet Union.

On his last trip to Peking, in 1983, Weinberger spoke repeatedly of the need for a “strategic relationship” between China and the United States to counter the Soviet Union. Chinese officials ignored the overture, telling Weinberger that China maintains an independent foreign policy.

On Wednesday, the U.S. official who spoke to reporters said the defense secretary did not mention the idea of a “strategic relationship” between China and the United States, but spoke of the need for “mutual cooperation.”