‘2 Sides of Same Coin’ : Arabs Expect Little From Israeli Shift

A newspaper cartoon that appeared around the Arab world this week depicts the political rotation taking place in Israel as a relay race.

Shimon Peres, the outgoing prime minister, is shown in shorts and track shoes, handing over power to Yitzhak Shamir, the former foreign minister. But instead of a baton, Peres is shown handing Shamir a dagger dripping blood.

In Arab eyes, the changeover in Israel’s coalition government is cause for neither celebration nor despair. Privately, officials express increased concern about Shamir’s hard-line policies, but publicly, most Arab governments expect Israeli attitudes toward the Arabs to remain consistent.

“Two sides of the same Zionist coin” is a phrase heard frequently these days in official Arab statements on the changeover.

‘Equal in Their Failures’

Typical was a statement in the Syrian government newspaper Tishrin, which said Peres and Shamir are “equal in their failures, and therefore they shall try to preserve the coalition to maintain some strength.”

Many Arab commentators have noted that Peres’ Labor Alignment was in power at the time of the 1967 Arab-Israeli War, in which Israel seized the West Bank of the Jordan River, Syria’s Golan Heights and the Gaza Strip--in all, one of the Arab world’s greatest humiliations.

Egypt, Syria and Jordan are the Arab countries most directly affected by the changeover. Egypt has signed a peace treaty with Israel; Jordan has acceded to a quiet working relationship over the occupied territories, and Israeli officials repeatedly hint at the possibility of war with Syria, an implacable foe.

“Syria is going ahead with its plans to achieve strategic parity, something that has turned into a nightmare in the minds of Israelis,” the Tishrin editorial said.

Image of Compromise

Diplomats believe that apart from their public declarations, both Jordan and Egypt preferred working with Peres because he projected an image of compromise.

“They all had a preference for Peres,” a Western diplomat said. “After all, Labor is the only one talking about territorial concessions.”

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak said in a recent newspaper interview that he did not expect the progress of Middle East peace talks with Israel to be impeded by the changeover.

Mubarak said he is dealing with “states rather than persons” and suggested that recent criticism by Shamir of the idea of an international conference on the Middle East was “internal party bargaining” that did not affect Egypt.

Jordanian Prime Minister Zaid Rifai said at a recent press briefing that because Israel’s coalition government had adopted a joint program, he did not expect any diplomatic changes to follow the shift in the prime minister’s office.

‘Concern and Anxiety’

According to Western diplomats in Amman, the Jordanians have privately expressed “deep concern and anxiety” over the changeover because of the repercussions the switch may have on Jordan’s policy toward the West Bank--and ultimately within Jordan itself.

Jordan’s King Hussein has said repeatedly that his country’s greatest concern is to keep the West Bank’s 750,000 Palestinians from pouring into Jordan, which as a result of the Arab-Israeli wars of 1948 and 1967 became 60% Palestinian.

The Jordanians and the Israelis, through the mediation of the United States, agreed on a sweeping plan for the West Bank just before the Israeli rotation took place, in the apparent hope that Shamir would be obliged to live up to agreements completed by Peres.

According to diplomats here, the U.S. role went far beyond that of middleman and included pressure on Jordan and, to a lesser extent, Israel, to accept key parts of the plan.

Although details of the West Bank negotiations conducted by the Reagan Administration are still secret, the announced portions include:

--Appointment of Palestinian mayors by Israeli authorities to take over from Israeli military rulers in at least three West Bank towns.

--Israeli agreement to permit implementation of a $1.3-billion development plan the Jordanians have proposed and for which they are now raising money. The measure will not only save Israel considerable funds earmarked for the West Bank but will also benefit Israel economically.

--Re-establishment of banking ties between Jordan and the West Bank, and apparent agreement for a greater flow of trade and traffic between the occupied territories and Jordan.