Arabs Fear West’s Anti-Syria Moves May Be Too Much of a Good Thing

With a few exceptions, most Arab governments have been watching with mixed feelings as Western countries weigh sanctions against Syria for its apparent role in a plot to put a bomb on board an Israeli airliner in London.

On the one hand, there is considerable sympathy and support in countries like Jordan and Egypt for Britain’s decision to sever diplomatic relations with Damascus on the basis of evidence of Syrian complicity in the plot. The evidence was presented at the trial of Jordanian-born Nezar Hindawi, who was convicted last week of trying to smuggle a bomb on board an El Al Israel Airlines jet April 17 in the luggage of his unwitting Irish girlfriend.

In the Middle East, Syria has long been regarded as the most calculating and callous practitioner of terrorism as a political tool, and moderate pro-American regimes like those in Jordan and Egypt have been its victims far more often than have Western countries.

‘With Smoking Gun’

Although they do not want to say so publicly, a number of Arab governments are not exactly displeased by the fact that for once “Syria has been caught with a smoking gun in its hand,” a Western diplomat said.

Thus, while Egypt’s verbal reaction was brief and noncommittal, government-controlled newspapers here splashed across their front pages photographs of President Hosni Mubarak and British Ambassador Allan Urwick beaming broadly and warmly shaking hands when they met a few days after the British decision was announced.

“Now we have something in common with the United Kingdom,” Egyptian Foreign Minister Abdel Esmat Meguid quipped to foreign reporters. “Neither of us has diplomatic relations with Syria.”

The thinly veiled satisfaction is tempered, however, by concern that any further Western moves to isolate Syria could backfire and set back what little hope remains for progress in the short term toward a Middle East peace settlement.

Assad a Key Player

This concern stems from the fact that Syria’s President Hafez Assad, unlike Libya’s strongman Moammar Kadafi, is a key player in the region, a shrewd and deftly manipulative leader who is admired by some, grudgingly respected by others and feared, with good reason, by most.

“The consequences of trying to isolate him could prove uncontrollable,” a senior Egyptian official warned. “Assad represents an important if radical political pole in the Middle East, and any major confrontation with him is likely to re-polarize the region.”

The measures taken against Syria by Britain and the United States--Washington withdrew its ambassador from Damascus after London formally accused Syria of masterminding Hindawi’s plot--are “probably controllable if they end there,” the Egyptian official said.

U.S. Militancy Questioned

But he and several other officials, interviewed on the condition that they not be identified, expressed concern over a mounting mood of militancy in Washington, where a number of legislators are demanding that President Reagan live up to a pledge made earlier, in his campaign against Libya, to act against Syria if given proof of its involvement in international terrorism.

A group of 29 U.S. senators has publicly urged Reagan to impose sanctions on Syria similar to those imposed on Libya last January, and the Administration has indicated it will take further steps against Syria once a review of its role in supporting terrorism is completed.

While economic sanctions would have little effect--U.S.-Syrian economic ties are minimal--there are a variety of steps Washington could take, a Western diplomat said, ranging from travelers’ advisories and canceling commercial air links to severing diplomatic relations.

“At the beginning of this week, I thought there were two possibilities,” the diplomat said, “that this would be only a short-lived reaction against Syria because of its importance in the area, or that it would be the first break in the dam, a mounting campaign against Syria in which the Assad government would become increasingly isolated in its dealings with the West.”

France Takes Action

He noted that France has announced it will scrap pending sales of military equipment to Syria and that West Germany is thinking of not sending a new ambassador to Damascus, and added: “It is becoming increasingly clear now that the second scenario is unfolding. . . . The dam is breaking.”

The real impact of the Hindawi affair, an Egyptian Foreign Ministry source said, is whether it will presage “a new and significant shift in American policy towards dealing with Syria. This is what worries everybody, especially the Syrians.”

Any shift toward a more combative, hostile U.S. approach toward Syria is worrisome, this official said, because in Egypt’s view it would have a “counterproductive impact on the radicals”--Libya, Algeria, South Yemen and the radical Palestinians. “They will rally around Assad and make him stronger than he already is,” the official said.

Kadafi Support Minimal

Some skeptics note that this is the same reasoning many experts used to argue against the U.S. bombing of Libya last April. They argued, before the air strike, that U.S. military action against Libya would only rally support to Kadafi and encourage his backing for terrorism--and they appear to have been wrong. Support for Kadafi was minimal, and the attack did seem to force at least a pause in terror-related activities by Libya.

But analysts also note that Libya and Syria are “completely different” cases.

“It’s one thing to attack a madman like Kadafi,” a Western diplomat said, “but Assad is widely respected as well as feared. He has real power. . . . The Arab League cannot meet without Syria.”

An Egyptian official noted: “There has always been an understanding between Washington and Damascus that Syria was a different game because it has more Soviet connections and because Syria plays an important role in Lebanon and in the Middle East equation. “

This understanding may only be tacit, but it is based on a number of hard facts; Syria is the Soviet Union’s biggest client in the Middle East. While Syria is not a simple Soviet proxy, it is the key to Moscow’s regional interests.

Syria plays a pivotal, if negative, role in the peace process; it successfully keeps the Arab-Israeli dispute and other issues from being solved without it.