West German Candidate’s Party Trailing in Polls : Underdog Rau Tries a Whistle-Stop Campaign

Johannes Rau, the opposition candidate for chancellor in the Jan. 25 election, has resorted to a traditional device for underdogs--the whistle-stop campaign.

Rau is the candidate of the Social Democrats, and he is in good form as his modern, diesel-powered train winds through the snow-covered hills of Bavaria, stopping at towns like Kempten, Kufbeuren and Guenzberg. He presses ahead even though the polls show his party trailing far behind the governing Christian Democratic Union and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union.

Rau, who turned 56 last week, is premier of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s most populous state, and he campaigns for national leadership with the hopeful air of a come-from-behind winner.

In bitterly cold weather, he has attracted warm if not ecstatic audiences, not only in the towns but in cities like Munich and Augsburg. His standard campaign speech, delivered lately in a slightly hoarse voice, concentrates on these points:

--Social justice for all, including adequate pensions and medical care for the old.

--Good schools for the young.

--A cleaned-up environment.

--A reduction in nuclear weapons.

Tall, Craggy Campaigner

Rau, tall and craggy, usually wearing a dark suit, appears before a backdrop with the legend “Germany needs a chancellor it can trust.”

He comes across to the voters as a sincere man but one who may lack the instinct for the political jugular in an area where politics is played for keeps--as has been demonstrated by Bavaria’s favorite son, Franz Josef Strauss.

Rau projects warmth, but in the minds of some voters a reporter talked with, he seems to lack authority.

He shows flashes of humor. In a Munich beer hall he declared, referring to the well-known rivalry between Strauss and Chancellor Helmut Kohl, “What Strauss says about me in public is a declaration of love compared to what he says about Kohl in private.”

Relaxing in his suite aboard the campaign train, Rau sought to disabuse reporters of what he described as two misconceptions: that the Social Democrats are against Western defense measures and are therefore heading for a disastrous defeat in the election.

Social Democrats Trailing

As for the opinion polls, which tend to show the vote for the ruling coalition of Christian Democrats and Free Democrats running at about 56%, while the Social Democrats are trailing with somewhere at around 35%, Rau said:

“The polls aren’t right. There’s at least 12% undecided, we believe. They could make the difference. The closer to Election Day we get, the stronger we get.”

And, he said, “the election is not to be decided by editorial writers but by responsible voters.”

Rau, who phones his wife and two children every night, admitted that he was depressed by the results of the last two state elections, in Bavaria and Hamburg, which showed a sharp decline in Social Democratic strength.

“After all the time I spent there,” he said, “you see the results and you ask yourself, is it worthwhile? But that’s only for one hour. Then you say, let’s get on with the next 24 hours. And Hamburg is only one city-state, while my own state of North Rhine-Westphalia has one-third of the West German population.”

Factors in Party’s Decline

Various factors have been blamed for the Social Democrats’ decline--economic improvements that contribute to a high standard of living under Kohl; a scandal involving the trade unions’ housing association, which affected many individuals; the pollution caused by the nuclear accident last year at Chernobyl, in the Soviet Union, and the pollution of the Rhine caused by a major chemical spill, both of which have driven voters toward the radical environmentalist Greens.

Rau insists that he will not enter into a coalition with the Greens, and this weakens his party’s claim to being able to run the country, for absolute majorities are extremely rare in West German elections.

The Christian Democrats, by contrast, are supported by a junior coalition partner, the Free Democrats, and this gives them a comfortable majority in Parliament.

As a consequence, the Christian Democrats tend to depict Rau as one who could govern only with a “red-green” coalition of Social Democrats and Greens. It has been difficult for him to counter this, and the possibility of such a coalition frightens many voters in the middle of the road.

Rau also denies that the Social Democrats are under the influence of the party’s left wing, particularly on issues involving defense.

Committed to NATO

He is committed to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, he says, although some leftists in the party would like to withdraw West Germany from the alliance and order the withdrawal of foreign troops from West Germany.

Rau said he has no feeling of personal antagonism toward Kohl, but that he is deeply disappointed with Kohl for rejecting his offer of a televised national debate.

To bring off what appears to be a near-impossible task, Rau keeps urging his audiences to reach out “to friends, relatives and neighbors, to get everyone to vote, particularly the young.”

After a long day of politicking, Rau likes to relax in the restaurant car of his train, playing a card game, skat, with aides and sipping beer and swapping stories until past midnight as the train glides along.

In appealing to young voters, Rau hopes to reverse a trend that has seen some young Social Democrats, who are against nuclear arms and atomic power, shift to the Greens, who would ban both.

Jazz and Bavarian Brass

Many of his campaign appearances are accompanied by American-style hoopla, with a jazz band playing “When the Saints Go Marching In,” or a traditional Bavarian brass band blaring out marches.

Sometimes the crowd shouts, “Johannes can do it!” and, encouraged, Rau goes on campaigning, a slight smile playing across his face as he is introduced as the “next federal chancellor.”

It is a stiff-upper-lip campaign, and a charming one, but the majority of West German political observers believe it is doomed to defeat.