Mexico’s Presidential Campaign Under Way--but Only De la Madrid’s Vote Counts

In a political horse race where the spectators wear blinders and popular opinion is reduced to the concentrated judgment of one man, Mexico’s campaign for president has begun in earnest.

The early front-runner among a handful of likely candidates appears to be Secretary of Government Manuel Bartlett Diaz, who is responsible for internal security and is close to President Miguel de la Madrid. In Mexico, by binding tradition, the president chooses his successor.

De la Madrid, whose own term ends next year, will unveil his choice this fall. Few Mexicans will ever know how or why a winner is chosen.

The popular election, scheduled for July, 1988, is ratification rather than runoff. In 60 years, the presidentially anointed candidate of the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) has won every time--and will again next time.

Backbiting Flourish

National intrigue, suspense and backbiting flourish around the impending choice--or, in Mexican political slang, the one at whom De la Madrid will “point the big finger.”

The political fortunes of the presidenciables, also known as the “hidden ones,” are measured by winks and nods, seating arrangements at state functions, appearances with the president, cryptic notices in newspapers.

“You are about to witness Mexico’s true national sport,” quipped presidential spokesman Manuel Alonso. “The succession dominates everything from now on.”

The next president will face, as did De la Madrid, a crippled economy, high inflation, massive unemployment and a public that is increasingly skeptical about the government’s ability to solve Mexico’s problems.

Election Reform Urged

Critics assert that the skepticism especially requires that Mexico reform its method of presidential selection to a more democratic form. As one critic put it: “The country is too complex and troubled to have its leadership chosen as if this were the Roman Empire.”

However, a campaign within the PRI to open the nomination process to some kind of election fizzled last fall. Leading party functionaries called the move traitorous.

As is customary, this year’s real and would-be contenders--the “hidden ones”--are longtime associates of the president, members of his Cabinet.

Political handicappers make Bartlett the early favorite because he is exceptionally well-placed. The Government Ministry, repository of the state’s deepest secrets, has historically been a prime source of presidential candidates. In addition, Bartlett was a political adviser to De la Madrid when the president-to-be was planning secretary.

Popular With Hard-Liners

Bartlett, 50, is considered the chief architect of the PRI’s recent electoral victories in northern frontier states, victories tinged with controversy and alleged fraud. The clean sweep made him popular with PRI hard-liners who insist that the party must dominate government everywhere. Bartlett’s stern visage--his mouth seems to be perpetually turned down in a frown--matches the image of the strongman that some think Mexico needs these days.

On the other hand, his choice would seem to preclude any opening of political power to parties other than the PRI, and would further irritate non-PRI politicians. To Bartlett, that would be less than tragic. In a recent appearance before the National Congress, he said the PRI was founded on the “democratic essence and social justice.’

The No. 2 contender, Alfredo del Mazo Gonzalez, who is secretary of energy and mines, has made a quick leap into contention. Last year, De la Madrid pulled Del Mazo in from his post as governor of the state of Mexico and immediately set off rumors that Del Mazo was the chosen successor.

Personal rapport between De la Madrid and Del Mazo fueled the rumors. De la Madrid once referred to Del Mazo, 43, as the “younger brother I never had.” De la Madrid is godfather to one of Del Mazo’s children.

Open About Ambitions

Del Mazo has been relatively open about his ambitions, which is odd given the false modesty expected of candidates. At a year-end appearance before the Congress, he packed the hall with cheering supporters, including mayors and legislators from his state. He was host at a lunch for 3,000 guests.

Perhaps as important as his relationship with De la Madrid, Del Mazo is said to have the support of Fidel Velasquez, the aging PRI labor leader. Velasquez, as head of Mexico’s most important labor organization, the Confederation of Mexican Workers, has De la Madrid’s ear on the succession.

The third favorite is Carlos Salinas de Gortari, the secretary of planning and budget. He was an underling of De la Madrid in the Planning Ministry and later formulated candidate De la Madrid’s economic platform, which has proved ineffective in the face of falling oil prices and inflation. Nevertheless, he is considered intelligent and energetic.

The biggest drawback for Salinas, 38, may be his physical stature. Because he is short, he is known variously as “E.T.,” “Young Gandhi” and “the Atomic Ant.”

Flattering the President

Dark horses come and go. The latest include Atty. Gen. Sergio Garcia Ramirez and Education Secretary Miguel Gonzalez Avelar.

Garcia’s main claim to fame is that he somehow convinced U.S. Atty. Gen. Edwin Meese III that Mexico was making progress in fighting drug traffic despite statistical evidence to the contrary.

He has displayed a campaign tactic common among candidates--flattering the incumbent president. In a speech last year, Garcia credited the president with “preserving humankind and the law,” “proclaiming reason above force” and generally acting with “patriotism and valor, virtues which we in Mexico hold in highest esteem.”

Gonzalez is a former senator who, according to one colleague, was known for “having a mature link with the thought of Miguel de la Madrid.”

Who’s Running, Who’s Not

Interest has centered not only on who is in the running but who has fallen out. The most spectacular example of the latter is Jesus Silva Herzog, the former secretary of finance. Silva Herzog was considered a front-runner until the day last year when he suggested that Mexico might stop payments on its foreign debt to improve the economic situation.

This made Silva Herzog appear to be talking tough to foreign creditors--tougher, indeed, than De la Madrid, who at the time was still promising orderly repayment.

It is not wise to look stronger than the president. Silva Herzog was fired, and has since spent much of his time traveling abroad.