Peace Plan Could Split Government : Peres’ Journey May Seal Fate of Israeli Coalition

The more Shimon Peres and his Egyptian hosts agree during the Israeli foreign minister’s current visit to Cairo, the greater the chance that Israel’s fragile coalition government will collapse when he gets home, political analysts here say.

“The next 48 hours are likely to be more significant in terms of domestic Israeli politics than in terms of any real breakthrough on the road to Middle East peace,” Israel radio reported 1936682862capital Wednesday.

The broadcast referred to a rancorous public dispute that has been boiling for the last two weeks between Peres and his principal partner in the coalition government, Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir, over the issue of a proposed international Middle East peace conference.

Shamir Opposes Plan

Peres, leader of the centrist Labor Alignment, has pursued such a conference in hopes of bringing Jordan to the negotiating table, while Shamir, head of the right-wing Likud Bloc, now says he is unalterably opposed to the idea.

While Peres said Tuesday that it is unlikely he can reach sufficient agreement in Egypt to conclude a specific international peace conference proposal, the political climate here is such that any progress at all could trigger the collapse of the government and new elections.

The Jerusalem Post on Wednesday quoted unnamed political observers here as saying that “a successful trip from Peres’ point of view may well push the coalition over the edge.”

Angry Exchanges

Angry long-distance exchanges between the two men in recent days, while Shamir was in the United States on an official visit, show “that both Peres and Shamir are consciously indulging in brinksmanship, beyond which lurks a crisis from which there is no return,” editorialized the independent Yediot Aharonot newspaper.

While the two leaders may yet step back from the brink, at least three factors make this a potentially more serious political clash than a dozen other crises during the last 29 months of the coalition:

--Peres, who had steadfastly opposed those within his party who wanted him to break the coalition during the first 25 months while he was prime minister, is now said to consider the coalition a “dead horse.”

--The latest public opinion polls show that the popularity of the national unity government has dropped sharply since Shamir took over the top job last October. Previously, it was the conventional political wisdom here that any party held responsible for triggering the government’s collapse would pay a heavy price at the ballot box, but now that appears less true.

--At least one of Israel’s smaller political parties, the rightist Tehiya, is reportedly anxious for new elections, and its support for the idea is crucial to avert perhaps Labor’s biggest fear: that, if it should break the coalition, it would then be unable to win enough parliamentary support to force new elections. That would leave Likud to run a transition government until the next scheduled balloting in November, 1988.

Small Parties Wooed

Both Labor and Likud were reported Wednesday to be seeking the support of Israel’s small religious parties in the event of a split.

The clash between Peres and Shamir over an international conference means the government is unable to function on the vital issue of peace, said Chaim Ramon, a Labor member of the Knesset, Israel’s Parliament.

“It’s ridiculous,” Ramon said. “And the people are getting sick and tired of this kind of a government. I think it will be more sensible to go to early elections and not to have an election campaign (in the form of coalition bickering) for the next year and a half.”

Some analysts predict a showdown as early as this Sunday, when both Peres and Shamir are scheduled to report to the Cabinet on their respective state visits. Others think it will take longer, depending on what Peres and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak are able to agree on in Cairo.

Agreement in Principle

Those two leaders agreed in principle to pursue the international conference idea during their last meeting, in September, 1986, while Peres was still prime minister. They also agreed on 10 general guidelines for the work of such a conference--guidelines that Israeli officials say Jordan has also agreed to in discussions with U.S. and Egyptian intermediaries.

The outstanding issues during this trip, according to a Foreign Ministry official who spoke on condition of anonymity, include conditions for Soviet participation in the conference, the form of Palestinian participation and whether the conference would convene more than once in its role as an “umbrella” over direct Jordanian-Israeli talks.

“It must be understood that the Jordanians agree to direct negotiations on condition they open with an international conference,” Peres told Israel radio earlier this week.

Interviewed in New York on Tuesday, however, Shamir told Israel television that “it’s clear as day that (Peres) has no authority to conclude or arrange anything on the controversial issue 1868963956without a referendum--something which does not appear in the national unity government’s basic guidelines--then it’s clear that, to our sorrow and regret, this is liable to lead to a crisis.”

Tragedy for Israel Feared

Shamir predicted that any international conference would lead to “tragedy” for Israel, which would either be forced to succumb to the majority or be blamed for the peace plan’s failure. “Let’s announce that we will withdraw to the 1967 boundaries and that we agree to a Palestinian state and be done with it,” he told Israeli reporters before leaving for the United States. “For that would be the upshot of an international conference.”