Preventing a Holocaust in S. Africa : Regime Is Strong, Must Be Persuaded to Shun Violence

An analysis of what the future holds for South Africa begins and ends with one proposition: Nobody really knows. But pessimists have the edge, for violence seems a certainty, in which case the odds favor the white government in Pretoria.

Optimists have excessive faith in the sanctions passed by the U.S. Congress and the resounding force of the vote to override the presidential veto. They say that the demographics are on the side of the blacks, that ultimately self-interest will prevail and the ruling whites will seek an accommodation. I doubt it.

The moderate pessimists foresee a major armed struggle in which many will die, but ultimately apartheid will be overthrown. I doubt that, too.

Deep pessimism seems more realistic. Sanctions will weaken the economy to some extent, but the effects will not be deep and will be overcome in time. The younger generation of blacks is permanently committed to struggle. The armed conflict will intensify; it will become increasingly brutal; it will polarize into a race war. Millions will die, and apartheid will not be overthrown.

If that seems unduly bleak, bear the following in mind:

--The South African military is a truly modern armed force, with resources unlike those of the colonial regimes overthrown in the rest of Africa.

--South Africa is for all essential purposes a nuclear power. It is conceivable that it has developed or would develop a neutron bomb.

--Pro-Nazi attitudes were widespread in South Africa during the war, and appear to be on the rise again. In a struggle for survival, no level of killing, including genocide, will be unacceptable.

--The location of black townships and “homelands” far from white urban centers not only makes them easy targets; it also allows their conversion into minimum-security prisons with a minimum of effort. It would not take more than a day to completely seal off the million blacks who are residing in Soweto.

--Demographics are not so important. The white population of South Africa is 5 million; the black population is 22 million. Israel with a population of 3.5 million has consistently defeated the combined armies of states with a total population of more than 50 million--and those were real armies, with tanks, missiles, planes.

--And the world will not intervene, whatever the horror. Remember, even when we were at war with Germany we declined to bomb Auschwitz. The West will not send soldiers to fight South African whites. And if communist nations become more deeply involved, U.S. support for the government may be rekindled. Most likely South Africa will become a closed society; we will have only sketchy reports of what is happening. The media will lose interest. Millions will die; apartheid will survive.

Given the possibility that the above scenario may be correct, what should the United States do? Ultimately it is the white South Africans’ appraisal of the military equation that will shape future events. A strategy to block the pessimistic scenario should focus on steps to persuade white South Africans that they cannot, in any meaningful sense, emerge as victors in an out-and-out conflict. Here’s what we could do to prevent a South African holocaust:

--Engage in a dialogue with the Soviet Union to see if there are ways to prevent the conflict from becoming a superpower contest. For instance, explore fuller use of United Nations mechanisms; adopt a joint policy declaration.

--Expand contact with the African National Congress with an eye to the possible provision of assistance and training.

--Provide military assistance to the front-line states that border South Africa.

--Lead a major multilateral effort to provide Zimbabwe with economic assistance conditioned on its remaining a strong example of how the rights of the white minority can be respected after the transition to black-majority rule.

--Establish in advance a multilateral assistance fund that would be provided to a post-apartheid South Africa, provided that the rights of the white minority are respected after transition.

--Lead a U.N. effort to revitalize the concept of crimes against humanity established at the Nuremberg trials. This would be one way of putting South African leaders on notice that the global community intends to hold them responsible should they move toward genocide in defense of their continued rule.

--Give political asylum to those refusing to serve in the South African armed forces.

These steps and others will be necessary to persuade the South African government that the military option is, for them, very unattractive. It is not necessary for the world to provide a solution. South African political scientists and government planners have drawers filled with possible schemes for true accommodation. What is necessary is that they come to see that they have no other option.