S. Korea: Troubling Ambitions

Last month South Korea’s government and ruling party stunned the nation by agreeing to accept virtually every major political demand that opposition groups had pressed during weeks of mass demonstrations. With that, the stage seemed set for Korea to enjoy a free and direct presidential election as a prelude to the first peaceful transfer of power in its modern history. All this remains possible, and probably even likely. But, in the wake of the government’s capitulation, some signs of trouble in the opposition camp have begun to emerge.

Among the most notable are indications that the anti-government forces, after achieving their considerable political victory, aren’t quite sure what they should do next. Their demands for constitutional revision, a direct presidential election, freedom of the press and protection of basic rights have all been accepted by the regime. Now the time has come to work out the implementing measures. The ruling Democratic Justice Party has already prepared its proposals. The main opposition groups, though, still find themselves uncertain about what their positions should be.

Time for deciding and acting is fast running out. Negotiations among the ruling and opposition parties have to begin soon if two deadlines are to be met. The first is for a referendum on constitutional changes that has been promised for the early fall. The second is for the election in November or December that will clear the way for President Chun Doo Hwan’s departure from office and the peaceful transfer of power next February.

Meanwhile, and almost certainly connected with this internal bickering, a power struggle between key opposition leaders seems under way. Kim Dae Jung, Korea’s most prominent dissident, indicated last November that he would abandon his efforts to become president if the regime agreed to make democratic reforms. With that agreement now in hand, Kim seems to be changing his mind. His old rival and current tactical ally, Kim Young Sam, hasn’t changed his. He also is eager to seek the presidency.

If both Kims run, the opposition vote will split--greatly enhancing the electoral chances of Roh Tae Woo, the ruling party’s candidate. The prospect that must now be taken seriously, then, is that South Korea’s anti-government opposition, after years of struggle and suffering, may find itself democratically counted out at the polls because its main leaders were unable to subordinate their personal ambitions to larger political interests.