China’s Successor Generation Ready for Promotions : Zhao, 6 on Way Up Greet Beijing Guests

Chinese Premier Zhao Ziyang walked into the banquet hall of the Great Hall of the People for a National Day reception Wednesday with the air of a man introducing his team.

Zhao, 67, who is also acting Communist Party general secretary and is seen as virtually certain to be confirmed in that post at a party congress that opens Oct. 25, was closely trailed by six men widely expected to be promoted to the very highest positions of the party and government.

The seven leaders, along with about a dozen others not quite as senior, carefully lined up facing the crowd of about 800 Chinese officials, diplomatic envoys and foreign guests. After a lengthy pause for photographs, they gave a slight bow of greeting.

Absent were the three top-ranking grand old men of Chinese politics--paramount leader Deng Xiaoping, 83, President Li Xiannian, 78, and Chen Yun, 82, all of whom are expected to step down from the five-member Standing Committee of the Politburo.

In short, Wednesday’s reception, marking the 38th anniversary of the Oct. 1, 1949, establishment of the People’s Republic of China, belonged to the successor generation.

Former General Secretary Hu Yaobang, the 72-year-old reformist leader who was removed from his post in January in a conservative backlash that followed pro-democracy student demonstrations, is also seen as certain to lose his spot on the Standing Committee, the top organ of political power in China.

Scenarios circulating among diplomats, journalists and their Chinese sources in Beijing generally have those four vacancies filled from among the six men who stood next to Zhao, with one possible additional candidate being Yang Shangkun, 79, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission.

Leading Contenders

The men include China’s five vice premiers: Wan Li, 71, Yao Yilin, 70, Li Peng, 58, Qiao Shi, 63, and Tian Jiyun, 58, plus Hu Qili, 58, the No. 2 man in the party secretariat after Zhao, 68.

The party congress technically does not have power to appoint a new president, premier or legislative chairman. But it is expected to indicate who will be confirmed in those positions by the National People’s Congress, China’s legislature, when it meets early next year.

Wan, a leading reformist ally of Zhao, and Yang, a military man noted for his loyalty to Deng, are considered leading contenders to fill the slots to be vacated by President Li and National People’s Congress Chairman Peng Zhen, 85. Scenarios differ as to which slot is likely to go to which man.

Li Peng, an orthodox, Soviet-trained engineer often viewed as a supporter of central planning, is widely considered the leading candidate for premier.

Zhao delivered a toast in which he declared that the party congress will accelerate policies of economic and political reform and promote greater openness both domestically and internationally. Then he and other leaders mingled with the crowd.

Zhao, and most of the others, did no more than exchange pleasantries. But Yu Qiuli, an army man who is on the Politburo and is a member of the Central Military Commission, gave reporters a strong indication that Deng is likely to retain his position as chairman of the Central Military Commission, which exercises control over the armed forces.

Most scenarios circulating in Beijing have had Deng retaining that position while stepping down from his other posts to help force the retirement of less reform-minded first-generation leaders including Chen, Peng and Li Xiannian.

Yu told reporters that the army and the people “need Deng.” The army highly respects Deng, he said, and “it is our united wish that he stay on.”