Let’s Talk Turkey: Cost Down, Consumption Up

Holiday diners can expect record supplies of turkey this season, with prices down sharply from a year ago, according to Agriculture Department economists.

Turkey slaughter has been running far above year-earlier levels. As of Oct. 1, the stockpile of frozen turkeys was at a record 640.9 million pounds, up 25% from a year earlier, according to a quarterly inventory.

Meanwhile, turkey wholesale prices--indicating consumer price trends ahead--are down sharply. The department’s Economic Research Service says the wholesale price of hen turkeys in the Northeast probably averaged about 56 cents per pound in July, August and September, down from the third-quarter average of 80 cents in 1986.

Wholesale turkey prices in the fourth quarter are expected to be in the range of 54 cents to 58 cents per pound, down from 78 cents a year ago.

Looking into 1988, the agency says wholesale turkey prices may range from 51 cents to 57 cents per pound, with prices in the first quarter averaging even lower, perhaps in the range of 47 cents to 53 cents per pound as efforts are made to reduce the huge supply.

Economist Lee Christensen, an analyst in the agency, said turkey is a fast-growing component of the American consumer’s meat diet, moving from what was once mostly a holiday treat to year-round use.

In 1986, he said, Americans each consumed an average of 214.3 pounds of red meat and poultry. That is retail weight as it is taken home from the store and does not include further trimming, shrinkage in cooking or table waste.

Of the total, turkey accounted for 13.4 pounds, or 6.3%. Christensen said 1987 consumption is forecast at 15.1 pounds of turkey, or 7% of the total of 215.6 pounds.

“Per-capita consumption of turkey has increased 150% since 1960 and 50% since 1980,” he said.

Declining production costs and rising consumer demand have been the main factors behind the turkey expansion. Also, new products such as turkey hams, turkey salami and turkey franks have been a big factor. In 1985, for example, those “further processed” items accounted for 44% of all turkey produced that year.

Christensen said figures for the quarterly consumption of turkey show how Americans have made the birds a year-round eating habit. Currently, about 37% of the turkey supply is used in the first and second quarters, up from about 21% in 1960.

“Each person now consumes almost as many pounds of turkey in the first half of the year as during the entire year in 1960,” he said. “While consumption still peaks in the fourth quarter, there has been a steady increase in the base level of turkey consumption throughout the year.”

Christensen said that while expansion has been encouraged by favorable net returns to turkey producers--on the positive side since the third quarter of 1984, according to agency analysts--projected future large supplies of turkey and other meats could be “burdensome” on markets.