Democracy, Regional Ties Key Issues in S. Korea Vote

A presidential campaign, which already has inflamed passions in South Korea, gets under way officially today with only one certainty in sight.

In their first chance in 16 years to vote directly for their president, South Korea’s 25.6 million voters will confirm what political analysts have been saying for the last seven years: President Chun Doo Hwan’s ruling Democratic Justice Party does not enjoy the support of a majority of the people.

The next government most likely will not enjoy majority support, either, although it could if one of the two liberal opposition candidates bows out of the race at the last minute.

With three strong candidates and a fourth significant aspirant in the race, the winner is expected to poll less than 40% of the vote. One analysis foresaw the possibility of a candidate winning with as little as 28% support.

Whoever wins, the election promises to set South Korea on the road to democracy after a history of military-installed governments, which since 1972 have ruled with authoritarian powers.

Even Chun’s handpicked ruling party nominee, Roh Tae Woo, 55, has pledged to end authoritarian rule, wipe out “military coloring” in government and transform South Korea into a democracy. And whatever doubts may exist about the ex-general’s promises, nationwide street protests in June--which forced him to make the pledge--underscored the fact that the South Korean public has reached the limit of its endurance of government by fiat.

An opposition victory, however, would make the commitment to democracy a sacred pledge, as its two standard-bearers describe the issue.

Were it not for the widespread desire of Koreans, especially a growing middle class, for political stability and economic progress, Roh--who collaborated in Chun’s 1980 power grab--”would get buried in the election,” said one Western diplomat, who asked not to be named.

Chun, whose constitutionally limited term ends next Feb. 24, “would probably get about 4%” of the vote if he himself ran in a free election, the diplomat added.

Roh may win anyway, thanks to a split in the opposition that Roh and Chun made possible last July by restoring the civil rights of Kim Dae Jung, 63, the opposition candidate in the last direct election, held in 1971. Kim, convicted on trumped-up charges of sedition in 1980, had been banned from politics because he remained under a suspended 20-year jail sentence.

He Jumps Into Trap

Kim, with eyes open, jumped into the ruling party’s trap by splitting with his opposition ally, Kim Young Sam, 59, and establishing a second party dedicated to ending military rule. In an interview July 2, Kim acknowledged that the only reason the government had restored his civil rights was to promote a schism between himself and Kim Young Sam.

Although Kim insists that he can win a four-way race, analysts said his move transformed a virtually certain opposition victory into a neck-and-neck race.

It also guaranteed that whoever wins the Dec. 16 election will be a minority president.

Many analysts see the race shaping up as a two-way battle between Roh and Kim Young Sam, both of whom appeal to the middle class. Kim Dae Jung’s support, while far stronger in terms of depth of commitment, remains limited to voters in the Cholla region, student activists, dissidents and the lower classes, they say.

But if Kim Young Sam and Roh find themselves locked in a nearly even battle, Kim Dae Jung could slip in.

Analysts point to a small possibility that Kim Dae Jung might withdraw at the last moment, throwing his support to his opposition rival. In that case, said one member of the Korean Establishment, “Roh definitely would lose.”

With huge ranks of voters still undecided, Korean and foreign analysts alike say the result will be determined by developments in the last few weeks of the campaign.

A “bandwagon phenomenon” could develop, pulling in a large number of presently uncommitted voters and swaying others to give the winner a plurality as high as 40% to 41%.

Whoever wins, however, “will have no mandate,” another Western diplomat said.

Chance of Military Coup

Instability, with the ever-present possibility of another military coup, remains a possibility. But, as one Cabinet official put it, political turmoil since June has already given the military “four or five chances” to intervene and it “did not do it, even in the face of provocation.”

Registration of candidates is to begin today and continue through Saturday. The final list is expected to include Roh and the two Kims as the main contenders, with Kim Jong Pil, 61, a strongman of the 1961-79 era of the late President Park Chung Hee, a prominent fourth on the totem pole.

The campaign, already marred by violence, promises to deepen emotions and splits within Korean society. More than 80%--some foresee as high a turnout as 85%--of the voters are expected to cast ballots.

The campaign is also expected to be one of the ugliest the nation has ever seen--”filled with fraud, strong-arm tactics, violence and bribery,” a Western diplomat said.

TV coverage so far has been overtly distorted to favor Roh, his opponents charge. As one Western diplomat put it, “Roh, even when he gets pathetic crowds, gets good TV angles.”

Nonetheless, the vote count itself is widely expected to be honest.

“The system looks pretty good,” a Western diplomat said. “If cheating occurs, it is probably going to be noticed.”

As such, the result promises to give South Korea its first-ever peaceful and democratic change of power.

The chief significance of the official campaign period beginning today lies in the new opportunity it will provide to the candidates to appear on TV for five 20-minute speeches each, which presumably will be uncensored. One TV debate is planned, although its format has not been decided. Five 20-minute radio speeches also will be permitted.

Already, it has become clear that the campaign will revolve at least as much around the candidates themselves as on the issues.

Antipathy against the southwest Cholla region, from which Kim Dae Jung hails, and Cholla resentment against domination of the nation by leaders born in the southeast Kyongsang region are considered the most significant of all the personal factors that will influence voters.

Both Kim Young Sam and Roh are from Kyongsang provinces.

Some analysts even see the focal point of the election not in the “end military rule” thrust of the opposition’s campaign against Roh but rather in a pro- or anti-Kim Dae Jung vote, because of his Cholla background.

Prof. Han Sung Joo of Korea University, noting that a survey showing that regional bias is stronger among young people than among older generations, said pro- and anti-Cholla voting is likely to prevail among youth, who, as never before, promise to exert a decisive influence on the outcome.

Voters in their 20s, all of whom were born after the 1950-53 Korean War, represent 33.4% of the total, while those in their 30s--whose memories of the war are dim--account for another 24.6%.

Kim Dae Jung, who draws much of his support from younger Koreans, is banking heavily on the youth vote and hoping that Roh and Kim Young Sam split the 7.6 million votes in their Kyongsang area, wiping out his regional handicap. The Cholla region has only 3.5 million voters.

One Western diplomat said Kim Jong Pil also has been attracting a following among young voters.

By contrast, Roh appears to suffer badly among young people, who have been conspicuous by their absence from his rallies.

The 10.6 million voters--41.4% of the total--in the metropolitan Seoul area may wind up determining the outcome. But even among them, regional antipathy exists. A quarter of the metropolitan population is from Cholla provinces, while about a sixth is from the Kyongsang region.

Kim Dae Jung, a charismatic, populist candidate, has pitched his campaign to a rainbow coalition of the urban poor, anti-government dissidents, students, farmers, blue-collar labor and white-collar clerks.

If the campaign were limited to the rally stage, Kim would have the advantage. He is a powerful, artful orator, playing his crowd with a change of pace, a deprecating joke or an appeal to outrage, all aimed at military rulers who have jailed, kidnaped and harassed him for a decade and a half. He has taken to wearing a traditional Korean gown on the stump, which at dusk creates a dramatic, almost gothic touch.

His followers are solid, wildly enthusiastic true believers, burning with anger at injustice. But he has been so long burdened by a radical image, largely the product of government propaganda, that his chances of cracking the center of the electorate have been limited.

The center, many analysts agree, belongs to Kim Young Sam. While Kim Dae Jung has often been an outsider, his opposition rival has fought for democratic reform within the system as a member of Parliament. He has won some small victories over authoritarian rule as a tough parliamentary bargainer, which hard-line dissidents wave off as the acts of a compromiser.

Kim Young Sam presents fewer political vulnerabilities than his major rivals, making him, to wavering voters, a safe candidate. While he cannot compete with Kim Dae Jung on the stump, he’s a practiced politician.

Questioned at a recent press conference about his reputation as a womanizer, he noted that he would be glad to have the women’s vote. His rally supporters look decidedly middle class.

Kim Jong Pil’s long suit is experience in government and, according to Korean analysts, a better mind than those of his opponents. He presents an urbane, rational image.

Purged from political life by Chun in 1980 and now seeking a comeback, Kim Jong Pil could enjoy an upsurge through TV in this, the first Korean presidential race in which the power of television will intrude.

Roh has the power of government in his pocket--a bed of support estimated as strong enough to draw in as many as a third of the voters.

On the campaign trail, he’s a shouter, a lectern-pounder. But when he makes a promise, it rings with the authority of an incumbent. And, despite strong opposition from students and dissidents, who call him merely a clone of Chun, Roh is game.

When a tear-gas grenade was thrown at his feet in a campaign stop in the opposition stronghold of Kwangju, he wiped his eyes and tried to continue as his aides were pulling him to safety.

Convincing the electorate that he is a true convert to the democratic process will be the key to his appeal to marginal voters and one of the major issues in the race. What the opposition calls authoritarianism--or often dictatorship--the Roh camp sells as stability.

Roh points to South Korea’s remarkable economic advances under the Democratic Justice Party, leaving unsaid the question: Do the voters want to risk derailing the economic train for more nebulous advances in democratic reform? Could the opposition candidates, never in power, manage the government?

“That’s the key,” said a Western diplomat. “The center of his campaign is ‘chaos if I’m not elected.’ That is subliminal.”

A final key issue in the campaign is the ability to deal with Communist North Korea, both in terms of South Korea’s security and on the issue of reunification, a strong feeling among most Koreans. Each campaign has presented a reunification formula, some specific, some hazy. All the candidates insist that any unified nation would have to be based on democratic institutions.

Contrary to expectations of U.S. officials, who last summer feared that the campaign might “fuel anti-Americanism,” Seoul’s relations with Washington have so far attracted little attention.