Syrian Efforts May Lead to Gulf Reconciliation : Iran Reportedly Persuaded to Postpone Offensive, Might Talk With Arabs

Two Syrian mediators held talks in the Persian Gulf emirate of Bahrain on Thursday amid reports that they have persuaded Iran to postpone a planned offensive against Iraq and are laying the groundwork for a meeting to reconcile Tehran with Arab states in the gulf.

Talk of a possible breakthrough in the seven-year-old war between Iran and Iraq has been rebounding through the region for several days, fueled by the latest peace mission involving Syrian Vice President Abdel-Halim Khaddam and Foreign Minister Farouk Shareh.

The two men, who have already visited Kuwait, Oman and Qatar on their current tour, are reportedly attempting to arrange a conference between Iran and the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council. The group comprises Saudi Arabia, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain.

Message From Assad

The Gulf News Agency said the Syrians met with Bahrain’s ruler, Sheik Isa ibn Salman Khalifa, and gave him a message from Syrian President Hafez Assad. They planned to make their next stop in the United Arab Emirates.

The officially controlled Kuwaiti newspaper Arab Times said Wednesday that a “feeling of optimism is prevailing in Kuwait for a tangible progress toward an end of the gulf war.”

The report was especially notable because Kuwait, which has been attacked frequently by Iran during the past year, has become the most hard line of the gulf states in its relations with Tehran. Last July, it reregistered 11 oil tankers in the United States in order to gain them the protection of the U.S. Navy in the Persian Gulf.

Louis Fares, a Syrian journalist who has been used in the past by the Damascus government to leak stories, was widely quoted Thursday as saying that the Syrian mediation effort has persuaded Iran to call off a planned offensive against the southern Iraqi city of Basra--at least for the time being.

Iran May Halt Attacks

Fares said the Iranians have also agreed to halt attacks against Kuwait, as well as against civilian shipping in the gulf.

In return, Iraq, at the prodding of Saudi Arabia, is reported to have agreed to stop attacks against Iranian shipping in the gulf, which has been aimed at disrupting Iranian oil exports.

In fact, attacks on shipping in the gulf have declined substantially. Since Dec. 26, no Iranian tankers have been reported hit and only one ship, a Maltese vessel apparently hit by mistake by Iraqi warplanes, was damaged.

In contrast, the previous month saw 36 ships hit in the gulf in some of the heaviest fighting since the so-called tanker war began in 1984.

Fares said Syria’s Khaddam, a key aide to Assad, and Shareh, who went back and forth between Tehran and Riyadh, the Saudi Arabian capital, last month, are now attempting to set up a meeting between Gulf Cooperation Council members and Iran in either Oman or Damascus.

War Reparations Issue

He said the first item expected to be discussed if the meeting does take place would be the question of war reparations to Iran, which Tehran has often said is a key condition to ending the war.

If the Fares report is correct, the Iranians would be postponing a major ground offensive at the time of year when the terrain around Basra is considered to be in the best possible condition for a large-scale infantry attack.

Western diplomats have reported that more than 200,000 fresh Iranian recruits have been moved to the war zone near Basra, apparently in anticipation of the new offensive. But some American analysts have expressed doubts about Iran’s ability to go forward with another costly battle.

Syria has stepped up its mediation efforts since a summit conference of Arab leaders in Amman, Jordan, in November adopted a resolution condemning Iranian aggression and attacks against Kuwait. Syria, an ally of Iran in its war with Iraq, was pressured into voting for the resolution, a blow to Iranian prestige.

Cleared Way for Egypt

One reason for Syria’s direct involvement is that the Arab summit cleared the way for the gulf Arab states to restore relations with Egypt, severed in 1979 after President Anwar Sadat made peace with Israel at Camp David, Md. Syria was known to be concerned about Egypt overshadowing the Syrian role in the area.

The Syrian peace initiative is taking place at a time when the U.N. Security Council appears unable to get both sides to observe a lasting cease-fire. A truce resolution was adopted by the Security Council in July. But only Iraq agreed to its conditions, and after two months, it resumed attacks on Iranian oil shipments.