Increase in Worldwide Consumption of Oil Forecast : International Engergy Agency’s Revised Report Contrasts With Other Groups’ Figures

The International Energy Agency today raised its estimate of world oil consumption to a little more than 50 million barrels a day for most of 1988, about 1 million barrels a day more than it had previously forecast.

The revised estimate should account for some of the excess oil on world markets.

“To put it very simply, there is less oil sloshing about than many believed there was,” IEA oil analyst Marcel Kramer told a news conference held to release the agency’s monthly report.

The upward revision contrasts with other recent reports that consumption would be flat. Demand forecasts for 1988 have become difficult to make since the Oct. 19 stock market crash created fears of a recession that would cut into oil needs.

The IEA had previously predicted world demand at 48.9 million barrels a day, but now it predicts total demand at 50.2 million for the first three months of this year. It said forecasts for the next two quarters are similar.

Estimates Raised

The Paris-based organization, which groups 21 countries seeking to coordinate energy policies, said its review resulted mainly in significant upward revisions for past and future oil demand in developing countries.

Oil prices started 1987 off on a strong note, but came under pressure during the year as OPEC members stepped up their own production. Only this week’s cold weather in much of the United States and reports that one oil company was cornering the North Sea Brent oil market pushed oil prices up.

The IEA also slightly raised estimates for consumption in the 24-nation Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, with first-quarter 1988 demand seen at 37 million against a previous forecast of 36.8 million.

Production forecasts were also slightly higher, with an extra 100,000 seen coming from outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in each of the first three quarters of 1988.

But oil supply data revisions were much smaller than those for demand.

A more accurate analysis of developing countries had allowed the IEA to reduce the amount of unattributed oil and increase actual consumption data.

Last year, world stocks were depleted by 800,000 barrels per day, the energy agency said. Previously it had forecast a balance in supply and demand.

On Dec. 14, OPEC ministers agreed on a production quota of 15.06 million barrels per day during the first half of 1988. This replaced its previous ceiling of 16.6 million barrels per day.

Decline in Emirates

The drop in December OPEC output was mainly due to a fall in production in the United Arab Emirates to 1.5 million from 1.9 million in November, the IEA said.

The new IEA figures indicated that the underlying demand for OPEC oil in the first quarter of 1988 would be 20.2 million barrels per day, compared with 19.3 million indicated in the end-November report.