If Sandinistas ‘Start Playing Games, They’re Going to Be Surprised’ : Contra Aid Cutoff Not Irreversible, Key Democrats Say

The eight-vote margin by which the House rejected more military aid for the Contras was so slim that lawmakers could swing back toward resuming arms shipments to the rebels if Nicaragua begins to renege on its commitment to the region’s peace accords, key House Democrats said Thursday.

“While the majority is in favor of testing the peace process, the vote also says that like it or not, if that process stumbles there will be more military assistance,” said Rep. Sam Gejdenson (D-Conn.), a leading opponent of the aid package.

“If they foolishly think this means it’s over and start playing games with the peace process,” he said of Nicaragua’s Sandinista government, “they’re going to be surprised.”

Proponents of continued aid contend that the Democrats’ position represents a dangerous gamble--one in which time favors the Sandinistas, not the United States. While the Contras have stockpiled enough money and material to sustain themselves for at least several months, the guerrillas could wither away as a significant fighting force if no additional U.S. aid is forthcoming.

At that point, advocates of further aid suggest, the Sandinistas could return to their authoritarian Marxist-Leninist ways with impunity.

Based on available information about the Contras’ strength and resources, however, this theoretical point-of-no-return appears to lie well into the future. And both Wednesday’s vote and the previous history of congressional action suggest a complete, long-term cutoff of U.S. aid is not likely.

For one thing, Democrats have pledged to permit a vote in the near future on providing so-called humanitarian or non-lethal aid to the rebels, and such a proposal is considered likely to win approval.

That would cover everything the Contras need except munitions, according to experts, and the anti-Sandinistas have repeatedly demonstrated an ability to obtain ammunition from outside sources.

More important, Congress has signaled its intention to monitor developments in Nicaragua closely, with a solid majority apparently unwilling to take the Sandinista reforms purely on faith.

After all, Democrats point out, the House that killed further aid Wednesday is not substantially different in makeup or outlook from the House that voted $70 million in military aid for the Contras in June, 1986.

A day after engineering a 219-211 defeat of the White House’s $36.25-million package of humanitarian and “lethal” aid, the Democrats said the narrow victory suggests that Nicaragua must show steady progress toward peace if the Contras are to be denied further U.S. backing.

The loss killed a plan that would have set aside $3.6 million of the Contra aid package for weapons and ammunition, to be released only if Congress decides later this year that the Central America peace process has failed.

American attention now shifts from Congress to Central America, where Nicaragua and its four democratic neighbors are parties to a shaky peace accord that would end outside military aid to all rebel forces, order a region-wide cease-fire and amnesty, and restore suspended political and civil rights in countries at war.

Nicaragua President Daniel Ortega has complied in part, restoring some political and press freedoms, lifting a state of emergency and releasing some, but not all, political prisoners since the peace accord was signed last August.

Ortega last month agreed to cease-fire talks with representatives of the Contras, a move the Administration called a “January surprise” aimed solely at persuading Congress to reject further aid to the Contras while the two sides negotiated. The talks, which resume next week in Guatemala, so far have registered little progress.

Rep. David E. Bonior (D-Mich.), one of the Democrats who led the fight against the aid package, said after the vote that most lawmakers have limited patience with Ortega.

“It’s Daniel Ortega’s slim margin in the House vote,” he said. “I don’t think he conceded as much as he has in six months to turn around and change his mind, and earn the ire of not only the United States Congress but also his Latin neighbors who have supported him.

“But if there’s backsliding to a large degree, then that changes things.”

Bonior said he believes Congress would act without prompting from Reagan to resume Contra military aid if Ortega reneges on the peace plan, as the White House predicts he will.

Some Democrats disagreed, saying Thursday that the vote ended U.S. efforts to affect Nicaragua’s internal affairs by military pressure without some explicit request from American allies in Honduras, El Salvador, Costa Rica or Guatemala, Nicaragua’s neighbors.

“Should the time come when things are breaking down, we have an alliance with these four countries,” said one lawmaker who asked not to be identified, “and we’ll get guidance from them. Nicaragua’s in our back yard, but it’s in their front yard.”