Northern Area Seen as Fallback Position for Afghan Regime

On the map, the muddy Amu Darya River forms part of the frontier between Afghanistan and the Soviet Union, but Soviet soldiers are posted at both ends of the bridges that span the river.

The local people, mostly Uzbeks, Tadzhiks and Turkmen, are largely the same on both banks of the river. The question of nationality is hazy, practically irrelevant.

Signs on many of the shops here in Mazar-i-Sharif, as in other towns in the area, are in Russian as well as in Afghan Persian. Electric power flows south from the Soviet Union. Natural gas is sent north from Afghanistan.

Geography, economics and culture combine to isolate the region from the rest of Afghanistan and tie it to the neighboring republics of Soviet Central Asia.

May Be Last Stronghold

Because of all this, many believe that this region will be the last stronghold of the Soviet-backed Afghan government if Kabul, the capital, should fall to the rebel moujahedeen once Soviet troops have been withdrawn.

According to some of the more conservative Western diplomats in Kabul, the Soviets intend ultimately to annex the fertile, mineral-rich flatlands of northern Afghanistan. But it is regarded as more likely that the region between Kunduz in the east and Andkhvoy in the west will become a fallback position for the government of President Najibullah if the U.S.-backed guerrillas manage to drive it out of Kabul, which lies south beyond the rugged peaks of the Hindu Kush.

A hint that the Najibullah government might be preparing for such a contingency came in March, when the position of deputy premier for the north was created. This gave special status to the northern provinces of Faryab, Jowzjan, Balkh, Samangan and Kunduz. There is no similar government position for any other region of Afghanistan.

Trade Connections

Meanwhile, the Soviet Union has been encouraging trade connections between the northern Afghan provinces and the Soviet republics, through a series of trade agreements that bypass the central government in Kabul. Balkh, for example, has several important, independent trade agreements with the neighboring Uzbek Soviet Republic.

“Economically,” a State Department analyst said recently, “the policy to establish these protocols between the Central Asian republics and the northern Afghanistan provinces effectively strengthens the cross-border ties.”

The man named to the new post of deputy premier for the northern provinces is Najibullah Masir, a senior member of the ruling People’s Democratic Party of Afghanistan. He speaks fluent Russian.

At a luncheon this week attended by three senior Soviet officials, including Viktor Polyanichko, chief Soviet adviser in Afghanistan and No. 2 man in the Soviet Embassy in Kabul, Masir paid tribute to the Soviet Union in a toast.

Helped by Soviet Technology

Soviet technology helped the northern provinces exploit the natural gas fields, he said. Moreover, Soviet advisers and equipment help in the mining of Afghan coal and precious stones. Electric power is provided by the Soviets by means of a cross-border grid established in 1987, and on this side of the frontier electric power lines were built with Soviet help.

“Everything we have achieved,” Masir said, raising his glass of Canadian whiskey, “is all due to our friendly neighbor to the north.”

If the Najibullah government does fall back on the northern region, it could carry on its war with the rebels while awaiting an opening to return to Kabul.

Since the war began eight years ago, this northern region has been the main arms depot and supply corridor for the government and the Soviet forces in Afghanistan. Supplies can be brought in by truck or by barge, and Afghanistan’s only railroad line is here, a mile of track crossing the bridge over the river from Termez in Uzbekistan.

“It is a natural staging place,” a Western diplomat in Kabul said. “It will be the last place the Soviets leave.”

A Buffer Zone for Soviets

Under an agreement signed last month in Geneva, the Soviet Union is committed to withdraw by February the estimated 115,000 troops it has in Afghanistan. In the meantime, the northern Afghan region could serve as a buffer zone between the Soviet Union and the rebels. Because many rebels are Muslim fundamentalists, the Soviets fear that they could stir an ethnic uprising in the Soviet Union.

The Soviet government is sensitive enough about the buffer zone theory to officially deny it in a statement issued this week by Gennady I. Gerasimov, chief spokesman for the Foreign Ministry.

Some Western diplomats in Kabul are also skeptical about the buffer zone idea. The political cost to Moscow would be too high, they say.

“A buffer zone makes sense economically, ethnically and geographically,” one said, “but it makes little sense politically with what the Soviet Union is trying to achieve with its pullout and glasnost ,” its policy of increased openness.

40% of Population

The northern region, which encompasses shifting dunes and irrigated farmlands, has been likened to Egypt. It is home to about 40% of Afghanistan’s 11 million people and accounts for about 50% of the gross national product. According to Masir, 40% of the national budget is financed by the sale of the region’s natural gas to the Soviet Union. He said natural gas sales account for more than 90% of Afghanistan’s export income.

A prominent pro-Soviet businessman in Mazar-i-Sharif, Mohammed Rasul Barat, said that 95% of the region’s trade is with the Soviet Union.

Barat, 30, who recently signed a contract to build a chain of restaurants in the Soviet city of Tashkent, was the host at this week’s lunch for the Soviet officials. Several journalists were among the guests, and two of them attended a private session with the Soviets.

One of the Soviets present, Vladimir Sevruk, deputy head of the propaganda department of the Central Committee of the Soviet Communist Party, said Barat has been able to accumulate considerable personal wealth as the result of his dealings with the Soviet Union.

Home Has 2 Swimming Pools

Barat’s residence suggests that he has in fact prospered. His home is set in a large garden planted with grapes, plums and mulberries. There are two swimming pools, several Mercedes-Benz cars and a Japanese 4-wheel-drive vehicle.

“He also breeds horses,” an obviously impressed Sevruk told a reporter. “Some of his horses cost more than the Mercedes.”

Mazar-i-Sharif has been relatively quiet through the years of fighting, in part because the flat terrain provides little cover for the guerrillas, who function more effectively in the mountains.

Yet two of the most famous rebel leaders, Ahmad Shah Massoud, who is known as the Lion of Panjshir Valley, and Burhanuddin Rabbani, who heads a major rebel group known as Jamiat-i-Islami, are natives of the region. Massoud is a Tadzhik and Rabbani an Uzbek, and both are held in high regard by their people here.

Also, many of the people here are descendants of refugees from the Soviet Union, people who fled in the 1920s and 1930s. An American reporter strolling the streets after shedding his secret police escort was greeted as a hero.

Several residents, some speaking broken English, thanked him for the U.S. government’s aid to the rebels. Several praised the names of Massoud and Rabbani.

“America is beautiful,” one man said.