Vote Due on Pinochet’s Future : Politics Makes Comeback as Chile Awaits Plebiscite

Seventeen volunteers sat on folding chairs in the otherwise empty living room of a modest suburban bungalow, plotting the defeat of Gen. Augusto Pinochet’s military government.

Students and retirees, a Socialist with grimy hands and work boots, a copper mining magnate and an insurance salesman with horn-rimmed glasses worked together at the weekly strategy meeting. They outlined tactics for weekend door-to-door canvassing in their middle-class suburb, La Reina. They organized a car caravan, a campaign breakfast and a fund-raising collection of bottles and cans.

Representing eight political parties, from solid left to center-right, the group’s unifying objective is victory in a planned plebiscite that will be crucial to the political future of Pinochet and all Chileans.

The gathering in La Reina is an example of what is happening today on a wide scale throughout Chile, from the arid Atacama Desert in the north to the icy Tierra del Fuego islands in the south: Old-fashioned politics, long suppressed under Pinochet, is making a comeback in a nation that once was the political storm center of Latin America.

Parties are forming. Voters are registering. New television talk shows are featuring ideologues of the left and right. Campaigning is reaching a frenetic pitch.

Not since the overthrow of Marxist President Salvador Allende in 1973 has the Chilean scene been so politicized. Not since the stormy months before the coup in which Allende died and Pinochet seized power has the atmosphere here been so charged with expectation.

Mixture of Fear, Hope

There is a pervasive sense of something big about to happen, a mixture of fear, doubt and hope.

By the end of the year, Chileans will decide at the polls whether they want eight more years of rule under the military’s presidential nominee, likely to be Pinochet himself.

The question on the ballot will be simple: Yes or No. If a majority votes No, it will set in motion a new political process aimed at competitive presidential elections within a year.

This year’s plebiscite is the first chance for Chileans to vote on the nation’s leader since the 1970 election won by Allende and his Communist-backed coalition.

Pinochet and his supporters are mustering their forces for a Yes vote, taking full advantage of government power and resources and arguing that a return to party politics would breed division and disorder.

On the opposition side, the principal asset is unity, as exemplified in La Reina. Virtually all of Chile’s fractious opposition parties except the Communists have joined in a fragile but effective alliance, giving an unexpected cohesion to the No campaign. Organizers say they cannot remember when so many rival political parties have been so united.

“Never before,” said businessman Luis Narvaez Espinosa, the local Christian Democratic Party chairman in La Reina. “Certainly not in the last 15 years.”

Most political analysts say the opposition appears to have a slight lead. But up to one-third of the voters say they are undecided, and few independent analysts dare make firm predictions on the plebiscite’s outcome.

Rival campaign headquarters in the smoggy center of Santiago symbolize the two emerging forces. On opposite sides of one of this capital’s main streets, the House of Yes stands for Pinochet, and the House of No against him.

Busy Volunteers

In the House of No, volunteers are holding strategy meetings, stuffing envelopes, pounding typewriters and working the phones. Like their counterparts in the House of Yes, they are urging voters to register and vote their way. Computers are helping to track trends and locate the fence sitters.

The House of No, befitting its opposition status, is a shabby four-story building on Bernardo O’Higgins Avenue, a boulevard named for one of Chile’s founding fathers. The headquarters is crowded with old desks and young canvassers; up to 160,000 volunteers are expected to take part, including election-day monitors to guard against fraud.

The walls are cluttered with posters. “Volunteers for Democracy: No,” one declares.

The House of Yes is in an elegant 19th-Century mansion, freshly painted and restored. Middle-age men in business suits predominate, and they are enthusiastic and utterly loyal to the general whom they believe saved Chile from communism, totalitarianism and economic ruin.

Their campaign message, being spread by 347 local Civic Action Committees as well as right-wing political parties: “Yes or Chaos.”

Ghosts of Allende’s Rule

The ghosts of Allende’s days haunt the campaign. Those in the “No Command,” an alliance of 16 anti-Pinochet parties that emerged in February, warily cooperate with one another, knowing they must persuade voters that differing ideologies can coexist. They seek to assuage memories of the turmoil during Allende’s three years in office, a time of political and economic upheaval, and to focus attention instead on the military’s oppression and violation of basic civil rights during its 15 years in power.

The Yes supporters are relentlessly exploiting fears of a return to the past. On the stump in northern Chile, Pinochet said last week that the opposition offers nothing new, only “its old frustrations, hatefulness and bitterness.”

“Unfortunately, we now see that the same people we threw out have come back in sheep’s clothing, and they are wolves because they are not afraid to deceive,” he said.

While Pinochet dominates the media, the No supporters face severe handicaps in reaching the nation’s 12 million people, more than half of whom have registered to vote. The government uses national television networks, pro-Pinochet newspapers and municipal machinery to spread its message, but the opposition cannot get its ads into the largest newspapers or on television.

Only one television station in Santiago agreed to carry an opposition voter registration spot. But that station later pulled the ad off the air, ostensibly because it featured the papal colors, yellow and white.

Opposition publishers have been permitted to start two daily newspapers in the past year. But about 30 reporters from various publications face charges in cases involving articles critical of the government.

Grass-Roots Tactics

Faced with such obstacles, No campaigners are relying heavily on grass-roots techniques to reach the public. About 290 local Houses of No have emerged around the country, combining an unlikely array of former political enemies: centrist Christian Democrats, left-of-center Socialists and pro-Communist independents.

The tensions among the uneasy allies surfaced occasionally at the La Reina meeting, in a rented house serving as the local command center. One leftist proposed distributing posters calling on people to vote “No to the prolongation of dictatorship, which has caused impoverishment, ruin, misery and desperation.” That provoked debate on whether the campaign should emphasize positive aspects of democracy rather than past conflict.

“We have to conquer the undecided--the middle class, the homeowner. We need to convince people that in the 200 years of our history, we’ve learned that extremes are disastrous and that now we have to turn to moderation,” Narvaez argued. The meeting formed a subcommittee to look into the poster idea.

For now, the opposition truce is holding. Narvaez and others hope that this new spirit of cooperation in Chilean politics will persist after the plebiscite and will improve chances for compromise when Pinochet, 72, finally leaves office.

After he took power, Pinochet’s central theme was that chaotic politics, manipulated by Marxists and their collaborators on the left, had led Chile to disaster. He banned political parties until mid-1987, when all but “totalitarian” parties were permitted to register. Four parties have gathered the 52,000 signatures needed to begin the registration process, and others are scurrying to do so.

Communists Abstain

The semi-clandestine Communist Party is the only major party that has declined to join the No coalition, arguing that participation would legitimize an undemocratic system imposed by the military. But on Wednesday, without joining the united No organization, the party belatedly called on its members to vote No rather than boycott the ballot.

Patricio Hales, a Communist spokesman, said the nation must realize that a No victory will not mean that “democracy will arrive tomorrow and the sun will shine over Chile.” He noted that even if Pinochet loses, the general will stay in office for another year until general elections and could remain as commander of the army until 1997.

He said that social pressure to achieve democracy has to be maintained and that it should include anti-government rallies and marches, like those that brought waves of street violence from 1984 to 1986. But centrist politicians worry that a new surge in violence could quickly change the political landscape, perhaps giving Pinochet reason to crack down on political activities or even suspend the plebiscite.

Six police officers and an army colonel have been shot dead since February. Pinochet supporters cite the killings as evidence of a continued Communist threat. Both factions of a Communist guerrilla organization, the Manuel Rodriguez Patriotic Front, deny that they carried out the killings, and some people in the opposition wonder publicly whether the slayings are provocations by pro-government forces.

A Roman Catholic human rights group, the Vicariate of Solidarity, says that detentions and police sweeps through Santiago’s slum districts have followed each police killing. “The worst repression now is directed against the poor. And those are the ones who are most massively going to vote No,” said Carmen Serrano, the vicariate spokeswoman. “Because opinion is unified for the first time in 15 years, the government is afraid and is using these methods of repression.”

Allende’s old Socialist Party, a Marxist party, has split into half a dozen factions. The most moderate of these are taking part in the No campaign, but on the basis that the military must renegotiate the entire political system if the military’s candidate is defeated. Ricardo Nunez, head of one Socialist splinter group, is skeptical that the military will accept such talks.

Christian Democrats Gain

The Christian Democrats, traditionally a party of the democratic left that now occupies the center of Chile’s political spectrum, appear to be the best organized. They have established 300 new local headquarters around the country and are the driving force behind the No command. Party Vice President Andres Zaldivar said the opposition is struggling to show that any democratic solution will be moderate and will not resurrect Allende’s Popular Unity coalition or any other Marxist-oriented alliance.

“This country is tired of traumatic solutions,” Zaldivar said in an interview. “We had three years of conflict under Allende and then 15 years of dictatorship, and now the country wants to return to a normal democratic life.”

Like others in the No movement, Zaldivar rejects the government’s assertion that Chile enjoys an economic prosperity unknown elsewhere in Latin America. Although economic growth indicators are healthy, Zaldivar contended that “the middle class is worse off than in 1973, the youth are brutally traumatized, and the distribution of wealth is regressive. The wealth is in very few hands.”

Pinochet’s followers believe that the economic takeoff, based on free-market principles, will attract undecided voters.

“The world criticizes us, but when it comes to the economy, they say Chile is the country that works best,” said Patricio Vildosola, treasurer of National Advance, a conservative party.

Although National Advance was formed in 1982 to support Pinochet, another right-wing group, the Renovation Party, has split over whether Pinochet should be the candidate. Some Renovation leaders believe a civilian or another military figure who does not provoke such personal antipathies would fare better in the vote.

The Yes campaign is relying heavily on “civic committees,” many of whose members have benefited from government programs such as new highways and housing projects. “These are the independents, people without a political home,” said Alfonso Larenas, president of a civic committee in suburban Santiago.

“We are working block by block, even house to house, demonstrating to the people the benefits the republic has achieved and the risk of changing course now,” Larenas said in a conversation at the Yes headquarters. “The silent majority, those who fear terrorism, tell us privately that they are with the Yes. . . .”

Date of Vote Uncertain

So far, the main missing element in the campaign is a date for the plebiscite, which must be held 30 to 60 days after the date of its formal announcement. According to the military government’s constitution, the plebiscite date also must be at least 90 days before March 11, when Pinochet’s new eight-year term will begin if he wins.

The constitution requires Pinochet, as army commander in chief, and the leaders of the three other service branches--the navy, air force and national police--to nominate the plebiscite candidate. The others are said to believe that Pinochet is less than an ideal choice. But Pinochet is waging a personal crusade, touring small towns and regional centers, and he shows no hint of willingness to pass the mantle to someone else.

If the No forces win, Pinochet will have another year in office, but he could step down to compete in the general election to follow. Many speculate that he or another government candidate could fare better against a divided field of opponents in an open election than in a Yes-No plebiscite.

Others say Chile’s opposition could consolidate its new-found unity by agreeing on a single opposition candidate in the general election and again defeating the military-backed candidate.

That would turn the tables on Pinochet, who once told politicians, “It’s finished for you.”