Iran Regime Suffering Worst Period of Crisis

Iran is undergoing the tensest period since the Islamic revolution ousted the late Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi and brought the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to power in 1979.

In the view of diplomatic observers here--backed up by the frank admissions of top Iranian political figures--this nation of 47 million is facing a military and economic crisis unrivaled since its war with Iraq began nearly eight years ago. The crisis has been exacerbated by the downing last Sunday of an Iranian civil airliner by a U.S. cruiser with the loss of all 290 people aboard.

The rise in tension is attributed to three main factors: recent military defeats, economic failings and uncertainty over the political succession to Khomeini.

Ayatollah Reportedly Ailing

The ayatollah, still a widely venerated leader, is in his 88th year and is said to be seriously ailing. He has not been seen in public in recent weeks.

On the military front, the Iranian armed forces have suffered a surprising and serious round of setbacks in recent months.

The Iraqi army, which a year ago seemed to have settled into a permanently defensive role, went on the offensive. Among other things, Iraq recovered the Faw Peninsula from Iran, took back the central front area of Shalamcheh and drove the Iranians out of the oil-rich Majnoon Islands region east of Basra.

The Iraqis have also fired missiles into the Iranian capital and created widespread apprehension by their use of chemical weapons against Iranian forces along the front.

“Nobody really expected the Iraqis to make that much progress,” said a Western military specialist here. “Some of the fighting fervor seems to have gone out of the Iranian revolutionary troops.”

Fewer Volunteers

At regular intervals, leading government officials exhort more young Iranians to volunteer for service at the front--a call that goes largely unheeded.

The army--an unhappy union of regulars and Revolutionary Guards that should number 350,000 front-line troops--is down to 250,000 men, according to Western military observers here.

“There is no longer a widespread willingness to enlist and fight,” said the defense expert. “There is also a fear of being the victim of chemical weapons.

“And with the occasional rumors of a possible cease-fire, who wants to be the last one to die--even in a holy war?”

Observers say that after nearly eight years of war, the army and Revolutionary Guards have still not sorted out their differences, with a resulting lack of cooperation and coordination in the field.

That is one reason Khomeini recently agreed to the appointment of the Speaker of Parliament, Hashemi Rafsanjani, as acting head of all the armed services, charging him with the task of unifying the various factions.

Rafsanjani announced that he might have to introduce military conscription, which has been strikingly absent so far during the war. The nation has relied on volunteers, although “volunteers” are often men pressed unwillingly into two years’ service.

Resilient Economy

Over the years, the Iranian economy backing up the military effort has been remarkably resilient, according to experts here.

“The oil has kept flowing out,” one observer said. “The national debt has been minimal, compared to Iraq’s $80 billion or so. And cash reserves have not been depleted despite severe pressure.”

But the continuing low level of world oil prices has hit Iran hard; inflation is high, running to more than 100% annually on some items, and everything is expensive and scarce except subsidized foodstuffs like bread.

“People are getting weary,” commented a diplomat. “They are tired of the war and its effects on their lives. They have been fighting all these years, and daily existence has gotten worse.”

Political Situation Unclear

Equally unsettling is the political situation.

For the time being, Rafsanjani seems to be Khomeini’s preferred successor on the governmental side. The Ayatollah Hussein Ali Montazeri, a conservative spiritual leader, or mullah, as they are called here, is Khomeini’s designated religious successor.

One problem is that Khomeini combines, in his mysterious way, both roles in the Islamic state that he created here, and there is really no single person to fill that dual eminence.

President Ali Khamenei, another religious conservative, seems to be fading out of the picture and probably will not succeed himself.

Thus the governing political-religious leadership continues to be divided over national policy: the clerics oppose any deviation from traditional Islamic conservatism, while the “reformers” believe in redoing the economy and repairing Iran’s relations with other nations, especially those in Western Europe and Canada.

A Pariah Nation

Among the reformers are Rafsanjani, Prime Minister Hussein Moussavi and Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Velayati. These leaders would like to end Iran’s isolation as a pariah nation--for its having taken hostages and its support for international terrorism.

The Airbus incident is thought to have damaged this process, particularly since Britain’s Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher came quickly to the support of the Americans, even though Iran and Britain were in the delicate position of trying to re-establish some kind of official diplomatic contact.

“The conservatives can say to the so-called moderates, ‘See, we reached out toward the West and see what we got for our trouble,’ ” one senior Western diplomat said here.

In Parliament, a group of “economic reformers” gained strength in the last election. These are officials who believe that Iran’s economy must follow modern principles rather than Islam’s sacred book, the Koran.

Power Keeps Shifting

Political specialists here have been fascinated by the continual shifting of power between the religious and secular influences in the national policy-making process.

“That interplay would make a great Ph.D. thesis,” commented a Western ambassador.

At present, the reformers are thought to be in the ascendancy, but that could change rapidly.

“Perhaps Rafsanjani is being set up by his opponents,” one Western observer speculated. “If things go badly, as well they could, he will be blamed, and the conservative mullahs will call for his scalp.”

Rumors have arisen suggesting that Iranian and American diplomats have been in contact, with the approval of Rafsanjani.

‘Place Abounds With Rumors’

“We don’t know whether this is true,” a diplomat said. “This place abounds with rumors--particularly because government ministers are so remote from us and the inner circle is closed off.”

Rafsanjani and the reformers--or “pragmatists,” as they are sometimes called--are said to be more eager than the mullahs to end the war with Iraq, even on less than perfect terms.

Iran has dropped its longtime demand that Iraqi President Saddam Hussein must be deposed as part of any peace accord, but it still demands reparations for the war damage it has suffered and action by the United Nations to firmly brand Iraq the aggressor in the conflict. The war started in September, 1980, when Iraqi forces attacked Iran across the Shatt al Arab waterway that forms part of their common frontier.

Many observers here think that a peace settlement may be out of reach as long as Khomeini is alive, because he is so deeply and personally hostile to the Baghdad strongman.