Outcome of Mexican Election Could Upset Relations With U.S.

Although the final results of this month’s Mexican elections are still unknown, it is already clear that, whatever the outcome, an unprecedented and potentially contentious era in Mexican history is about to begin, one that could have severe repercussions for U.S.-Mexican relations.

That was the consensus Monday of several experts from Tijuana’s College of the Northern Border, a research institution funded by the Mexican government, who spoke at a program sponsored by San Diego State University’s College of Extended Studies.

The session, part of a weeklong forum on U.S.-Mexico issues at SDSU, was originally scheduled to include an unidentified member of the hierarchy of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, Mexico’s long-dominant ruling party, known by its Spanish acronym as the PRI.

However, academic sponsors explained that the situation in Mexico remains in such disarray following the elections that the official--described as a potential cabinet member in the next presidential administration--decided it would be too risky to comment publicly about the elections to a U.S. audience.

“What is going on in Mexico is a first,” said Jorge A. Bustamante, director of the College of the Northern Border in Tijuana and a leading Mexican spokesman on immigration and other issues affecting U.S.-Mexico relations.

Widespread Fraud Claimed

On July 6, Mexican voters delivered a stunning blow to the PRI, electing its presidential candidate, Carlos Salinas de Gortari, by a bare majority, according to the results released so far. PRI also suffered losses in congressional races. Opposition candidates have claimed widespread fraud, and the final electoral configuration remains unclear--and presumably under intense negotiation.

“The dominant one-party system is dead,” declared Gustavo del Castillo, who heads the U.S. studies department at the Tijuana college and holds a Ph.D. in political anthropology from the University of Texas. “And I think we can all be thankful for that.”

The two experts offered varying analyses of the election results, with Bustamante generally seeing the vote as a sign of democratic vitality, while Del Castillo viewed the tallies as a stunning repudiation of the PRI and of the government it has embodied for 60 years. Both agreed that the future is cloudy.

Because the PRI, through its dominance, has become identified with the Mexican government, Del Castillo said that the rechazo, or rejection, of the party cannot be likened to Americans’ decision to elect a Republican in favor of a Democrat, or vice versa. The United States is a two-party system and Mexico has been a one-party system. This was a rejection of an entire government apparatus, Del Castillo said.

“The . . . loss means a loss of legitimacy for the government,” Del Castillo said. “From now on, PRI can no longer say that it speaks for the conscience of Mexico, or for the conscience of the revolution of 50 years ago.”

Can PRI Adjust?

Whether the PRI can adjust to a role as just one party in a true multiparty system remains the critical question, Del Castillo said.

It may also be a key for U.S.-Mexico relations. Although U.S. officials frequently excoriate the one-party system south of the border, Del Castillo noted that any new coalition government that emerges in Mexico may be uncomfortably to the left for U.S. tastes, or may consist of new players less inclined to accommodate the United States.

“The U.S. has always been critical of the PRI, but it has been comfortable with the PRI,” said Del Castillo, stressing the potential for change in Mexico’s long-stable government.

Bustamante was considerably more cautious in his comments on the elections, which he described as historic but still inscrutable.

“There is absolutely no precedent in Mexico history for a (presidential) candidate to win with a bare majority,” noted Bustamante, who is close to the ruling party and whose views are generally seen as reflecting mainstream thinking in Mexico City. “We don’t know what it means yet.”

However, Bustamante, who holds a law degree from the National Autonomous University of Mexico and a Ph.D. in sociology from the University of Notre Dame, was decidedly upbeat in his assessment. Despite widespread allegations of voter fraud, Bustamante described the vote as probably the most democratic in Mexican history. He called voter turnout “tremendous”--despite an acknowledged abstention rate of almost 50%.

“I think Mexico will be a more democratic country than it was a few years ago,” said Bustamante, who also writes a weekly column on border issues for Excelsior, a leading Mexico City newspaper. “I only hope our institutions respond.”