Somalia Is Racked by Insurgency : Fighting Tests Aging Leader in Strategic Horn of Africa

Somalia is experiencing its worst outbreak of insurgency since the military regime of Mohamed Siad Barre took power in 1969, and the fighting could spell the end of the 80-year-old president’s reign, according to Western observers, aid officials and other sources.

Reports of offensives by the Somali National Movement in the north of the country, which encompasses most of the coastline of the Horn of Africa, come as the Siad Barre regime is under increasing criticism for human rights abuses, including institutionalized torture by its internal security service.

Flood of Refugees

The fighting also may have an impact on the regime’s attempt to negotiate an economic recovery program with the International Monetary Fund and Western aid donors. It has already sent an estimated 75,000 refugees fleeing into neighboring Ethiopia, where they are straining relief facilities. As many as 120,000 Somalis may reach Ethiopia by the end of this year, according to estimates from the Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Somalia is of considerable strategic interest to the United States, which has long had an agreement with Siad Barre allowing U.S. military planes and ships to refuel at Somali bases and ports, including two in the insurgent north. The bases afford the United States access to the Persian Gulf.

The United States is expected to provide about $70 million in aid to Somalia this year, including about $10 million in military assistance and $60 million in development and humanitarian aid.

Although Western observers do not believe the rebel offensive is sufficient in itself to topple Siad Barre, some argue that the fighting is an indication of the aging president’s failing grip on the country. Since he rose to power in 1969 as army commander, Siad Barre has proved to be adept at balancing the interests of the country’s handful of opposing clans, producing a long period of stability.

Injured in Car Accident

That structure began to collapse after Siad Barre was involved in a serious automobile accident in 1986, according to Richard Greenfield, a Briton who served as political adviser to the Somali government from 1977 to 1986.

“Since then, members of his family have been trying to ensure the succession,” Greenfield said Monday, “so there’s been growing resentment among the other clans.” Siad Barre comes from the Marehan clan; the Somali National Movement is closely identified with the Isaaq clan of the north.

The disruptions in the north seriously threaten Somalia’s principal source of foreign exchange: the sale of cattle and camels to the Arab world, chiefly through the port of Berbera, the scene of some fighting. Most of the rest of the country’s economy is subsistence farming and herding, Greenfield said.

Although the fighting may not directly affect the prospects of an agreement with the International Monetary Fund, which is crucial to the destitute nation’s economic health, the signs of instability may well discourage foreign donors from offering aid, Greenfield said.

Indications of trouble in the north emerged in March, when Siad Barre and other government officials were stoned at a rally in a stadium in Hargeisa, Somalia’s second-largest city.

In June, Hargeisa was the scene of fierce fighting between guerrillas of the Somali National Movement and government troops; the battle then spread to neighboring cities. Refugees and others emerged from the region with tales of atrocities committed by both sides, including mass executions in the streets.

Earlier this month, a Somali air force pilot ditched his Soviet-built MIG-17 into the Gulf of Aden off the neighboring country of Djibouti and asked for political asylum, saying he had been reprimanded by superiors for refusing to bomb civilian targets in Hargeisa. The pilot has reportedly been turned over to the Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees.

Since then, reports indicate that the government and the Somali National Movement have reached a standoff, with each side holding sectors of key towns in the north, according to a Western observer interviewed in Nairobi.

Guerrilla strength has been reported as high as 6,000 men, including mutinous government troops, according to the observer, who asked that he not be further identified.