Record Crop Loss Seen; Drought Aid Bill Signed : Corn Production May Fall 37%, Soybeans 23% but Food Stockpiles Are Adequate, U.S. Reports

The government reported Thursday a record drop in corn yields and other severe crop losses from the drought in an announcement made just hours after President Reagan signed what he called the “largest disaster relief measure in history,” providing $3.9 billion in aid to farmers and livestock producers.

At a news conference on the dismal crop reports, the Agriculture Department’s chief meteorologist predicted that the dry spell, one of the nation’s worst in this century, would continue.

“We see at this time no basic retreat from the hot, dry weather,” which has hit particularly hard in the northern plains, Midwest Corn Belt and Mid-Atlantic region but is also causing serious problems on the West Coast, Norton D. Strommen said.

The Agriculture Department, issuing its first firm crop estimates this year for policy-makers and commodity merchants, predicted declines of 37% in total corn production and 23% in soybeans from 1987 harvest levels.

Other Crops Damaged

Other spring crops also have been badly damaged, according to a survey of 46,000 farmers. Production of durum wheat, used for special breads and pasta, may fall 41% and other spring wheat, 53%. On the other hand, winter wheat, which accounts for the bulk of U.S. wheat production, was about normal this year, the department said.

A special on-site survey found that the average corn yield--the number of bushels per acre--is expected to plummet by 34%, the largest drop on record, exceeding the 28% decline in 1983, another drought year. An average acre of corn may yield only 78.5 bushels this year, compared to 119.4 bushels in 1987.

Despite the heavy crop losses, officials said, stockpiles are large enough in most cases to ensure an adequate food supply in this country to satisfy foreign customers and to meet food aid commitments.

Also, officials stuck by their estimate that the drought would drive up food prices only 1% above the 2% to 4% inflation rate originally projected for this year. Next year, though, the lingering effects of the drought may increase food prices an additional 2%, said Ewen M. Wilson, assistant secretary of agriculture for economics.

Each 1% increase adds an estimated $50 to yearly food costs for a family of four.

Wilson said a similar drought next year would be catastrophic in its impact on food prices and supplies. But Strommen noted, somewhat hopefully, that, historically, a second year of drought is unlikely.

Meanwhile, at the White House, Reagan signed the massive drought-relief bill in a Rose Garden ceremony attended by five congressional leaders and about 100 farmers whose parched fields had been visited in recent weeks by the President and Agriculture Secretary Richard E. Lyng.

“This legislation is helpful and generous,” Reagan said, “but, at the same time, it’s not a budget-buster, since the drought will reduce the cost of our regular farm programs” by an estimated $5 billion in lowered subsidies.

He added that the bill “isn’t as good as rain, but it’ll tide you over until normal weather and your own skills permit you to return to your accustomed role of being the most productive farmers in the world.”

Reimbursements for Losses

Under the legislation, farmers who lose more than 35% of a crop will receive payments amounting to 65% of their anticipated federal subsidy or the anticipated market price for their crop.

Livestock producers who grow their own feed and suffered losses from the drought also will get relief. “In all, hundreds of thousands of farmers and ranchers will benefit,” the President noted.

Herman Krone, invited to the bill-signing ceremony after Reagan inspected his withering corn and soybean farm in Du Quoin, Ill., a month ago, said the legislation “will not only help the farmer but every lady who walks into the grocery store to buy her vegetables.”

Krone explained that the measure will help many farmers, especially young ones just getting established, to pay off their bank loans and seed and fertilizer bills, enabling them to stay in business.

Worst Early Drought

By one measure, meteorologist Strommen said, the drought is the worst in this century. Never has there been such a lack of rainfall in the early growing season, April to mid-July.

However, only 43% of the country is suffering “severe to extreme drought,” compared to 61% in the Dust Bowl year of 1934, the record for this century.