Science / Medicine : Uncertainty in ‘Human Factors’ of Star Wars

The science of predicting human performance under extraordinary conditions faces a daunting challenge in the Star Wars plan, according to a top federal “human factors” researcher who said last week it remains to be seen whether that challenge can even be met.

Randall M. Chambers, the outgoing principal scientist for the Army Research Institute, said it is not even clear how scientists might simulate the conditions under which the Strategic Defense Initiative would be used.

“Conducting the strategic defense battle is not just a matter of a person at a control station,” said Chambers, an engineering psychologist who worked for many years on the space program. “No longer is it possible to (simply) deal with a person in a simulator.”

The recent accidental downing of an Iranian airliner by the U.S. cruiser Vincennes in the Persian Gulf has raised new questions about the reliability of such systems, he said. He said it would behoove the government to begin immediately examining the role of humans in SDI.

Asked what level of human reliability might be reached in SDI, Chambers said a 99% rate would be both “remarkable” and unlikely. Asked if 1% fallibility would be acceptable, he said, “I don’t know. It depends on who makes the decision what is acceptable.”